You're assuming that the channel holds a full 90 days worth of inventory. I don't know much about these things, but in these days of just-in-time manufacturing

You're assuming that the channel holds a full 90 days worth of inventory. I don't know much about these things, but in these days of just-in-time manufacturing, that seems implausible to me. How do you know it's not 30 days, or 15?