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We're wired to come up with simple heuristics like "smaller than 5 microns bad" and "larger than 5 microns fine". It's much harder to hold a true model of the w
by mojoe 5y ago
We're wired to come up with simple heuristics like "smaller than 5 microns bad" and "larger than 5 microns fine". It's much harder to hold a true model of the world in our heads: a list of every different disease, how big particles containing it need to be to lead to respiratory infection, and how each type of virus and bacteria behave under different atmospheric conditions (humidity, temperature, pressure). While we can try and not rely on over-simplified heuristics, to really ensure that our heuristics aren't killing people we'll need to eventually offload a lot of this type of fine-grained simulation/prediction to software.
- jakobnissen 5y agoThe issue here, though, is not that there was an arbitrary cutoff of 5 µm, but that the beliefs about how the disease actually spread between humans were flawed - not just simplified - and that the mistake led to bad public health measures during a deadly pandemic.