3 ms·

> they aren't necessary, they're only effective at preventing the spread of COVID if the wearer has a medical degree, don't wear masks on planes, etc Everyone

by flukus 5y ago

> they aren't necessary, they're only effective at preventing the spread of COVID if the wearer has a medical degree, don't wear masks on planes, etc Everyone seems to also forget that a lot of this took place when they wrongly thought surface transmission was the main vector. The bigger problem was the delay in recognizing aerosol transmission, Chinese scientists cottoned on to this very early but the CDC and WHO dragged their feet. We also saw everything play out and get politicized in real time in a way that's never happened before. There are lags between data and science, further lags between science and science communication and then even more from science communication to government policy. On one end of this lag you've got scientist warning of aerosol transmission, on the other side you've got Fauci still operating under the surface transmission advice leading to some very mixed messaging. Reducing this lag will be important in future.

bonzini 5y ago
> Chinese scientists cottoned on to this very early China didn't even admit human to human transmission until mid January. They haven't even admitted when the outbreak started, which almost certainly wasn't November 2019 since there are suspect cases in Europe already at the beginning of December, of people that had never been in Wuhan.
- flukus 5y ago
  > China didn't even admit human to human transmission until mid January. Because it was even newer and more unknown at that point. Wuhan was in lockdown on the 23rd of January, so they had a pretty good idea by then. Meanwhile the rest of the world twiddled their thumbs and lost the opportunity to contain it. > They haven't even admitted when the outbreak started, which almost certainly wasn't November 2019 How do you "admit" something unknown? Either way we know it couldn't have been too much before November/December, considering everything we know about how fast it spreads.
  - cycomanic 5y ago
    > How do you "admit" something unknown? Either way we know it couldn't have been too much before November/December, considering everything we know about how fast it spreads. Actually, this is not so clear. The evidence of community cases in November/December in e.g. France were not picked up at the time either. There is a phase were a new disease can fly completely under the radar, because we are still in a very slow growth and only see a few isolated cases, which often don't even get seen by the same health professionals. This is particularly true in the case of covid were there is evidence that spreading is disproportionately from "superspreaders" (unless some of that information changed now?). So unless there was a superspreader, you only have few isolated cases.
    - flukus 5y ago
      If that's the case then China doesn't even have anything to admit, it could have come Frome anywhere.
      - stjohnswarts 5y ago
        Everything points at Wuhan currently. That’s not even a question at this point
    - unishark 5y ago
      It wasn't completely under the radar though. Doctors in China were thinking it was a "mere" SARS outbreak, which was fairly close to correct. However concern about public health was not the top priority of the govt.
  - bonzini 5y ago
    Taiwan was pretty sure there was human to human transmission on Dec 31, 2019 after their secretary of health had been in Wuhan for a week or so, so China most likely had figured it out at least a month earlier. Maybe they hid it because were too busy jailing doctors?
- em500 5y ago
  > there are suspect cases in Europe already at the beginning of December, of people that had never been in Wuhan. If this is true, then it's not a given that COVID-19 even originated in China.
  - carlmr 5y ago
    It's not a given, but it's also not a given that it originated in Europe or anywhere else for that matter. Plane travel makes it possible for a virus to be anywhere in the world on the same day.
    - drran 5y ago
      Two patients with SARS-CoV-2 in France[0] on November 16, one in China[1] on November 17, and the whole epidemic in Russia[2] on November 19. This new study of scanners identified two cases of suspected coronavirus, on November 16 and 17 [0]: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-premier-cas-de-covid-19-remontant-au-2-decembre-confirme-en-alsace_3952985.html https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/corona... China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17 [1]: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro... The outbreak of pneumonia was recorded in the Orenburg region (Turn on captions, then select Captions -> Automatic translation -> English) [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    The not-China origin idea is fringe at the moment.
- shard 5y ago
  Chinese scientists figured out that most colds, flu, and other respiratory illnesses spread through aerosols back in 2003 during the SARS outbreak, if I understand this article correctly: https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/ https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwu...

by flukus 5y ago

bonzini 5y ago

> Chinese scientists cottoned on to this very early China didn't even admit human to human transmission until mid January. They haven't even admitted when the outbreak started, which almost certainly wasn't November 2019 since there are suspect cases in Europe already at the beginning of December, of people that had never been in Wuhan.

flukus 5y ago
> China didn't even admit human to human transmission until mid January. Because it was even newer and more unknown at that point. Wuhan was in lockdown on the 23rd of January, so they had a pretty good idea by then. Meanwhile the rest of the world twiddled their thumbs and lost the opportunity to contain it. > They haven't even admitted when the outbreak started, which almost certainly wasn't November 2019 How do you "admit" something unknown? Either way we know it couldn't have been too much before November/December, considering everything we know about how fast it spreads.
- cycomanic 5y ago
  > How do you "admit" something unknown? Either way we know it couldn't have been too much before November/December, considering everything we know about how fast it spreads. Actually, this is not so clear. The evidence of community cases in November/December in e.g. France were not picked up at the time either. There is a phase were a new disease can fly completely under the radar, because we are still in a very slow growth and only see a few isolated cases, which often don't even get seen by the same health professionals. This is particularly true in the case of covid were there is evidence that spreading is disproportionately from "superspreaders" (unless some of that information changed now?). So unless there was a superspreader, you only have few isolated cases.
  - flukus 5y ago
    If that's the case then China doesn't even have anything to admit, it could have come Frome anywhere.
    - stjohnswarts 5y ago
      Everything points at Wuhan currently. That’s not even a question at this point
  - unishark 5y ago
    It wasn't completely under the radar though. Doctors in China were thinking it was a "mere" SARS outbreak, which was fairly close to correct. However concern about public health was not the top priority of the govt.
- bonzini 5y ago
  Taiwan was pretty sure there was human to human transmission on Dec 31, 2019 after their secretary of health had been in Wuhan for a week or so, so China most likely had figured it out at least a month earlier. Maybe they hid it because were too busy jailing doctors?
em500 5y ago
> there are suspect cases in Europe already at the beginning of December, of people that had never been in Wuhan. If this is true, then it's not a given that COVID-19 even originated in China.
- carlmr 5y ago
  It's not a given, but it's also not a given that it originated in Europe or anywhere else for that matter. Plane travel makes it possible for a virus to be anywhere in the world on the same day.
  - drran 5y ago
    Two patients with SARS-CoV-2 in France[0] on November 16, one in China[1] on November 17, and the whole epidemic in Russia[2] on November 19. This new study of scanners identified two cases of suspected coronavirus, on November 16 and 17 [0]: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-premier-cas-de-covid-19-remontant-au-2-decembre-confirme-en-alsace_3952985.html https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/corona... China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17 [1]: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro... The outbreak of pneumonia was recorded in the Orenburg region (Turn on captions, then select Captions -> Automatic translation -> English) [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh11FtfaP0
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  The not-China origin idea is fringe at the moment.
shard 5y ago
Chinese scientists figured out that most colds, flu, and other respiratory illnesses spread through aerosols back in 2003 during the SARS outbreak, if I understand this article correctly: https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/ https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwu...