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Riiiight... supply shocks, labor shortages, free government money, panic buying, shipping constraints, raw input prices, energy instability, all have nothing to
by listenallyall 5y ago
Riiiight... supply shocks, labor shortages, free government money, panic buying, shipping constraints, raw input prices, energy instability, all have nothing to do with the highest inflation print in nearly a decade. It's all just "prior sharp decreases." Gotcha.
- whimsicalism 5y agoSupply shocks definitely have to do with the month-over-month phenomenon. But I don't see how you can look at that graph and not see the obvious correction for a massive downtrend in inflation pretty much exactly a year ago. Whatever, the more people who have a bad mental model of what's going on, the more I make on the stock market, so it's NBD. I would actually encourage you to bet lots of money on your beliefs, it's just another opportunity for arbitrage for me and the institutional investors who know how markets work.
- listenallyall 5y agoMarkets, especially equity markets, "work" when all available information is taken into account. Information, like first-party reports from the world's leading consumer goods companies, that they are planning to raise prices, or have already begun to do so. But you've already said you don't pay attention to that nonsense. Arb works great, until it doesn't. Go ask LTCM.