5 ms·

Who sowed the seed of doubt in me.. that vaccinated folks can still transfer the disease?

by kjsingh 5y ago

okaram 5y ago
They can, but it is very unlikely.
- boatsie 5y ago
  Probably not that dissimilar to people getting pregnant when on birth control.
  - PraetorianGourd 5y ago
    No, a lot less likely than that. Birth control efficacy is around 91% in typical use per year for the mini-pill. The mRNA vaccines seem to perform better than that AND don't have the issue of perfect use
    - samatman 5y ago
      IUD efficacy is a lot higher than that, around 99%. Condoms are lower than 91%, around 85% in real life use. The various vaccines have a spread of efficacy as well. It's a valid analogy.
      - PraetorianGourd 5y ago
        I specifically said mini-pill in my reply. As far as I understand, birth control most commonly refers to the pill, as it is the most commonly prescribed form of birth control (condoms, coitus interruptus etc. not being a prescribed form). My main beef is that the percentage efficacy calculation is different and thus not comparable. Birth control is calculated at the % chance of an event within a year. Vaccines are not calculated in the same manner, so it is hard to say that one is more effective without having the data on vaccine efficacy over a year. The data I have seen thus far does not yet indicate much of a wane over time in the same manner as birth control. Furthermore, birth control failure is due to misuse most often, not due to waning effectiveness of an initial dose. Furthermore, sperm and ovum do not tend to have selective pressure to work against birth control. It is unknown at this time whether the mRNA vaccines are generic enough to be effective against whatever mutations to the spike protein may form. Essentially my point is this, you can also say that it is about as effective as the odds of a pitcher throwing a no hit game. But besides the numbers which communicate those odds, everything that is used to calculate and define the event is different.
- refurb 5y ago
  Nope. Check out Singapore’s latest cluster. Multiple fully vaccinated people infected (9 at last count) who are spreading it to others.
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/24-new-cases-of-locally-transmitted-covid-19-infection-13-may-2021-update https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/24-new-cases-... has the cases, with vaccination information. I think there's not enough information there to make conclusions about the vaccines. There's roughly a million vaccinated people in Singapore, a small number of people that are vaccinated and still get sick is expected even with very efficacious vaccines.
    - refurb 5y ago
      Don’t get me wrong. The vaccines are great at preventing severe disease. But they won’t prevent an outbreak of 20-30% of your population is unvaccinated. Data seem to point at keeping some level of restrictions until everyone who is vulnerable has an opportunity to get the vaccine. Otherwise you’ll be dealing with outbreaks - smaller in scale, but outbreaks none the less.
ineedasername 5y ago
Perhaps the Yankees, with 8 vaccinated team members positive with COVID. One of them had even been sick with it before. However it's worth pointing out that they did not get the more effective mRNA versions.
- paul_f 5y ago
  false positives and crappy pcr tests, never meant as diagnostics
  - tbihl 5y ago
    To their credit, false positives are the designed nature of PCR.
  - ineedasername 5y ago
    It's referenced as a diagnostic test: https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/covid-19-diagnostic-test/about/pac-20488900 https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/covid-19-diagnos... What leads you to believe it is not? As for false positives, a cluster like that seems unlikely give they had a less effective vaccine overall and in terms of protection from variants. If they are false positives, I'd bet on sample or protocol contamination, not a random clustering.
JauntTrooper 5y ago
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was ~85% effective at preventing 'severe' covid (requiring medical intervention but not hospitalization) and 61% - 65% effective at preventing 'mild and moderate' covid in areas with the variants that are now the most prevalent in the US. I would assume vaccinated people that are sick enough to be having symptoms are probably also infectious.
galgalesh 5y ago
It was unknown whether they could spread the disease for a long time. A bunch of research has done out in recent weeks/months showing it's also effective to slow the spread.

Who sowed the seed of doubt in me.. that vaccinated folks can still transfer the disease?

okaram 5y ago

They can, but it is very unlikely.

boatsie 5y ago
Probably not that dissimilar to people getting pregnant when on birth control.
- PraetorianGourd 5y ago
  No, a lot less likely than that. Birth control efficacy is around 91% in typical use per year for the mini-pill. The mRNA vaccines seem to perform better than that AND don't have the issue of perfect use
  - samatman 5y ago
    IUD efficacy is a lot higher than that, around 99%. Condoms are lower than 91%, around 85% in real life use. The various vaccines have a spread of efficacy as well. It's a valid analogy.
    - PraetorianGourd 5y ago
      I specifically said mini-pill in my reply. As far as I understand, birth control most commonly refers to the pill, as it is the most commonly prescribed form of birth control (condoms, coitus interruptus etc. not being a prescribed form). My main beef is that the percentage efficacy calculation is different and thus not comparable. Birth control is calculated at the % chance of an event within a year. Vaccines are not calculated in the same manner, so it is hard to say that one is more effective without having the data on vaccine efficacy over a year. The data I have seen thus far does not yet indicate much of a wane over time in the same manner as birth control. Furthermore, birth control failure is due to misuse most often, not due to waning effectiveness of an initial dose. Furthermore, sperm and ovum do not tend to have selective pressure to work against birth control. It is unknown at this time whether the mRNA vaccines are generic enough to be effective against whatever mutations to the spike protein may form. Essentially my point is this, you can also say that it is about as effective as the odds of a pitcher throwing a no hit game. But besides the numbers which communicate those odds, everything that is used to calculate and define the event is different.
refurb 5y ago
Nope. Check out Singapore’s latest cluster. Multiple fully vaccinated people infected (9 at last count) who are spreading it to others.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/24-new-cases-of-locally-transmitted-covid-19-infection-13-may-2021-update https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/24-new-cases-... has the cases, with vaccination information. I think there's not enough information there to make conclusions about the vaccines. There's roughly a million vaccinated people in Singapore, a small number of people that are vaccinated and still get sick is expected even with very efficacious vaccines.
  - refurb 5y ago
    Don’t get me wrong. The vaccines are great at preventing severe disease. But they won’t prevent an outbreak of 20-30% of your population is unvaccinated. Data seem to point at keeping some level of restrictions until everyone who is vulnerable has an opportunity to get the vaccine. Otherwise you’ll be dealing with outbreaks - smaller in scale, but outbreaks none the less.

ineedasername 5y ago

Perhaps the Yankees, with 8 vaccinated team members positive with COVID. One of them had even been sick with it before. However it's worth pointing out that they did not get the more effective mRNA versions.

paul_f 5y ago
false positives and crappy pcr tests, never meant as diagnostics
- tbihl 5y ago
  To their credit, false positives are the designed nature of PCR.
- ineedasername 5y ago
  It's referenced as a diagnostic test: https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/covid-19-diagnostic-test/about/pac-20488900 https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/covid-19-diagnos... What leads you to believe it is not? As for false positives, a cluster like that seems unlikely give they had a less effective vaccine overall and in terms of protection from variants. If they are false positives, I'd bet on sample or protocol contamination, not a random clustering.

JauntTrooper 5y ago

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was ~85% effective at preventing 'severe' covid (requiring medical intervention but not hospitalization) and 61% - 65% effective at preventing 'mild and moderate' covid in areas with the variants that are now the most prevalent in the US. I would assume vaccinated people that are sick enough to be having symptoms are probably also infectious.

galgalesh 5y ago

It was unknown whether they could spread the disease for a long time. A bunch of research has done out in recent weeks/months showing it's also effective to slow the spread.