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Most of those things sound like techno-optimism, which isn't really the same as being dumb. COVID could've started to go away in May with HCT / massively more

Most of those things sound like techno-optimism, which isn't really the same as being dumb. COVID could've started to go away in May with HCT / massively more aggressive vax.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
p_j_w 6y ago
Vaccinations weren't an option last May, which is when Musk was saying Covid would be gone by, not this May.
- fastball 6y ago
  Vaccinations could've been an option last May. The mRNA vaccines were designed days after receiving a full genetic sequence of the virus (in January). Those are the same two vaccines we are currently injecting people with – we just spent a long time on trials/approval/ramping up production. Far longer than necessary.
  - tzs 6y ago
    Previous attempts at mRNA vaccines had failed, due to the side effects being too serious. There was no reason to believe in May 2020 that a COVID mRNA vaccine would be any different than all the previous mRNA failures.
    - johnisgood 6y ago
      Can I have sources to that claim? I would like to use it.
      - jcranmer 6y ago
        https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/co... is a post from April of last year detailing the different types of vaccines, which does mention some of the issues mRNA vaccines have had in the past. I think there's a fuller discussion of mRNA somewhere on that blog, but the gist of it is "we've been trying this for about a decade and we might finally have all the kinks worked out."
        johnisgood 6y ago
        Thank you, will give it a read.
      - tzs 6y ago
        My statement wasn't quite accurate. It was previous attempts at mRNA treatments that failed due to too many bad effects from the delivery mechanism. Some companies gave up on mRNA then. Those that wanted to continue switched to trying to develop mRNA vaccines instead of mRNA treatments for non-viral conditions. Vaccines would require lower doses, which they hoped would reduce the problems with side effects. Experimental mRNA vaccines were developed for a few viral diseases, but not had gotten through trials and been licensed for use in humans. Some links to sources are in the history section of the Wikipedia article on RNA vaccines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#History
sellyme 6y ago
COVID could have started to go away in May 2020 with extremely aggressive lockdown and quarantine measures. In fact, where I live, it did - we reached 0 active cases for the first time almost exactly a year ago today, and have only had any cases in the community for a grand total of about two weeks since. Musk opposed those measures though, which makes his level of expertise on the matter somewhat more dubious.

Most of those things sound like techno-optimism, which isn't really the same as being dumb. COVID could've started to go away in May with HCT / massively more aggressive vax.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

p_j_w 6y ago

Vaccinations weren't an option last May, which is when Musk was saying Covid would be gone by, not this May.

fastball 6y ago
Vaccinations could've been an option last May. The mRNA vaccines were designed days after receiving a full genetic sequence of the virus (in January). Those are the same two vaccines we are currently injecting people with – we just spent a long time on trials/approval/ramping up production. Far longer than necessary.
- tzs 6y ago
  Previous attempts at mRNA vaccines had failed, due to the side effects being too serious. There was no reason to believe in May 2020 that a COVID mRNA vaccine would be any different than all the previous mRNA failures.
  - johnisgood 6y ago
    Can I have sources to that claim? I would like to use it.
    - jcranmer 6y ago
      https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/co... is a post from April of last year detailing the different types of vaccines, which does mention some of the issues mRNA vaccines have had in the past. I think there's a fuller discussion of mRNA somewhere on that blog, but the gist of it is "we've been trying this for about a decade and we might finally have all the kinks worked out."
      - johnisgood 6y ago
        Thank you, will give it a read.
    - tzs 6y ago
      My statement wasn't quite accurate. It was previous attempts at mRNA treatments that failed due to too many bad effects from the delivery mechanism. Some companies gave up on mRNA then. Those that wanted to continue switched to trying to develop mRNA vaccines instead of mRNA treatments for non-viral conditions. Vaccines would require lower doses, which they hoped would reduce the problems with side effects. Experimental mRNA vaccines were developed for a few viral diseases, but not had gotten through trials and been licensed for use in humans. Some links to sources are in the history section of the Wikipedia article on RNA vaccines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#History

sellyme 6y ago

COVID could have started to go away in May 2020 with extremely aggressive lockdown and quarantine measures. In fact, where I live, it did - we reached 0 active cases for the first time almost exactly a year ago today, and have only had any cases in the community for a grand total of about two weeks since. Musk opposed those measures though, which makes his level of expertise on the matter somewhat more dubious.