8 ms·

Apple up, Android flat in smartphone growth

31 points by thisisblurry 15y ago

shareme 15y ago
seems somewhat false..went form 450,000 daily activations in May to 500,000 daily activations in June daily..
- glhaynes 15y ago
  My understanding is that that rate does not exceed the overall growth of the market, though. So Android activations are growing in absolute numbers, but their portion of "all smartphones sold" is not.
- seb 15y ago
  The 500k are world wide.
- simonair 15y ago
  An activation corresponds to either the first activation after a sale, or the activation following a "Reset to factory settings" of an Android device. How activations are split between these two is anyone's guess.
sudont 15y ago
This: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=28237 http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=28237 Is a lot more helpful. There's still a lot of market to cover, so it's not like iOS and Android are cannibalizing each others sales yet.
- miahi 15y ago
  The difference between the titles is very interesting: "Apple up, Android flat in smartphone growth" vs the original "_In US_, Smartphones Now Majority of New Cellphone Purchases". Yes, the US market is big, but not the only one. http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/06/andy-rubin-500000-android-activations-daily/ http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/06/andy-rubin-500000-and...
  - kenjackson 15y ago
    The big story, IMO, looking at the charts is that smartphone growth all-up stalled (flat between Q1 and Q2). Maybe the first Q2Q stall in growth in years. I'd like to know why people aren't getting smartphones? Is the cost of the data plans? If so, I think we may see growth in this market segment slow down a lot faster than some people expect.
    - Meai 15y ago
      Because they are expensive, they have very little battery life, they break easily (expensive again), they may get stolen (I can leave my 10€ phone anywhere, I wouldn't do that with my 600€ one), they do everything computers do, only at a tiny impractical screen, there is a notion of more radiation from smartphones, they make it much more attractive to waste time, they are much slower to boot up = people don't want their smartphones do be always on/standby, they are more unreliable in terms of glitches / connectivity issues / bugs.
    - micampe 15y ago
      I think that's because they are selling them as pocket computers, and a lot of people don't care about having another computer. Those who did already got them.
      - moe 15y ago
        A number of people (at least in my circle) have also realized that those touchscreen devices are inferior for their primary purpose; being a phone. I know quite a few who "downgraded" their iphones to old fashioned devices with a real keypad (mostly nokias) after the novelty had worn off.
      - gnaffle 15y ago
        Actually, my experience is that a lot of people are getting smartphones that hate their computer and rarely use it, and just want a good phone. My mother got an iPhone, not because she wanted lots of apps, but because the user interface was simple enough to understand and use for making phone calls, and because she never figured out the T9 stuff. I was quite surprised when I discovered that she'd figured out how to use Safari on her own. Some other friends got an iPhone after buying and iPod touch for watching videos and listening to music while commuting, and gradually discovered that it was pointless carrying around two devices. So the potential market is very big IMO, and only limited to how far down the price can be pushed. Of course, there will always be a big market for "non"-smartphones, as these will get cheaper as well and reach even more people.
immortalbeast 15y ago
i like Android. Sprint and T-Mobile are already swamped with Android phones. There's no room for growth there. the iPhone is already the best selling smartphone on Verizon after only 4-5 months. http://allthingsd.com/20110622/whats-the-top-selling-phone-at-verizon-and-att/ http://allthingsd.com/20110622/whats-the-top-selling-phone-a... Android should go after AT&T fast.
- Pooter 15y ago
  There are already Android handsets on AT&T, and the iPhone still sells better there (per the link you provide).
- RainFlutter 15y ago
  Well of course it's the best selling phone. Apple bets the entire platform on a single phone; Android has a panoply of options competing against each other. If the iPhone were being consistently outsold by any one of the various Android models, that would be a sign that something was going seriously wrong for Apple. That article merely demonstrates that statistics will tell you anything.
manthizzle 15y ago
Nielson's data: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/in-us-smartphones-now-majority-of-new-cellphone-purchases/ http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/in-us-smar... Nielson's analysis is equally bad. FTA, "Android share of recent acquirers flattened in 2011; Apple is now driving smartphone growth." This is simply not true. Android is still grabbing the largest portion of new smartphone users.
- imperialWicket 15y ago
  The analysis and wording are misleading, but I find it hard to believe that no one identifies the Verizon iPhone launch as a motivator for these numbers. There's a clear stall in new smartphone user iPhone purchases that starts right after WSJ announced the Verizon iPhone launch. There's also a clear spike when the Verizon iPhone launch occurred. I guess you could say Apple's departments handling marketing and Verizon launch details are driving smartphone adoption.
protomyth 15y ago
It will be interesting to see what happens on the next iPhone refresh. AT&T is offering the 3gs for "free" with a 2 year contract. If Apple has a replacement that can fit that slot for both AT&T and Verizon, then it will probably do some significant things to the iPhone market share (and seriously accelerate the iPod lines decreasing numbers).
- bryanlarsen 15y ago
  Yes, that's definitely the sweet spot. It's hard for Android to sell "cheaper than free". ("free" is far from "free", but it sounds good). In Canada where the rule is 3 year contracts (and thus free is even more expensive than in the States), I've seen low-end Androids for $0 with 3 year contract, no data plan required and 2 phones + a PS3 for 2 three year contracts.
  - shinratdr 15y ago
    > In Canada where the rule is 3 year contracts (and thus free is even more expensive than in the States), I've seen low-end Androids for $0 with 3 year contract, no data plan required and 2 phones + a PS3 for 2 three year contracts. True, but Canada has a strangely high iOS adoption rate and carriers are just doing whatever the hell they can to increase that existing 9% of Canadian smartphone users that own Androids. I think it's because they can negotiate better with the individual Android device makers than they can negotiate with Apple or even RIM.
- uptown 15y ago
  To throw another variable in there, I expect to see the iPhone on Sprint before the end of the year.
barista 15y ago
Apple up, Android flat and Microsoft Nowhere in smartphone growth.
thedeuce 15y ago
I can't watch to ditch this android for iphone... I tried to talk a few people out of androids here at work, but they didn't listen until about a week after using it; Finally they realized I was telling the truth and returned their phones for iphones!
shinratdr 15y ago
Smartphone statistics are pretty unhelpful when it comes to evaluating iOS because they don't factor in the 100+ million iPads & iPod touches out there. It helps to remember this when reading arguments about the App Store & the Android Market, because it's often forgotten or dismissed.
rabidsnail 15y ago
The number I care about (which I haven't been able to find, not that I looked very hard) is how many unique (per user) app installations there were per month for each platform. The number of users is only useful if users of all platforms install apps at the same rate, which my intuition says is not true. Many android phones are sold as "the nice phone that you can get with your 2-year contract" as opposed to an item that the owner sought out explicitly, so they're less likely to explore the full potential of the device.
gamble 15y ago
I could tell that Android's growth had stalled when people stopped posting nigh-weekly updates of Android's market share on HN.

31 points by thisisblurry 15y ago

shareme 15y ago

seems somewhat false..went form 450,000 daily activations in May to 500,000 daily activations in June daily..

glhaynes 15y ago
My understanding is that that rate does not exceed the overall growth of the market, though. So Android activations are growing in absolute numbers, but their portion of "all smartphones sold" is not.
seb 15y ago
The 500k are world wide.
simonair 15y ago
An activation corresponds to either the first activation after a sale, or the activation following a "Reset to factory settings" of an Android device. How activations are split between these two is anyone's guess.

sudont 15y ago

This: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=28237 http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=28237 Is a lot more helpful. There's still a lot of market to cover, so it's not like iOS and Android are cannibalizing each others sales yet.

miahi 15y ago
The difference between the titles is very interesting: "Apple up, Android flat in smartphone growth" vs the original "_In US_, Smartphones Now Majority of New Cellphone Purchases". Yes, the US market is big, but not the only one. http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/06/andy-rubin-500000-android-activations-daily/ http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/06/andy-rubin-500000-and...
- kenjackson 15y ago
  The big story, IMO, looking at the charts is that smartphone growth all-up stalled (flat between Q1 and Q2). Maybe the first Q2Q stall in growth in years. I'd like to know why people aren't getting smartphones? Is the cost of the data plans? If so, I think we may see growth in this market segment slow down a lot faster than some people expect.
  - Meai 15y ago
    Because they are expensive, they have very little battery life, they break easily (expensive again), they may get stolen (I can leave my 10€ phone anywhere, I wouldn't do that with my 600€ one), they do everything computers do, only at a tiny impractical screen, there is a notion of more radiation from smartphones, they make it much more attractive to waste time, they are much slower to boot up = people don't want their smartphones do be always on/standby, they are more unreliable in terms of glitches / connectivity issues / bugs.
  - micampe 15y ago
    I think that's because they are selling them as pocket computers, and a lot of people don't care about having another computer. Those who did already got them.
    - moe 15y ago
      A number of people (at least in my circle) have also realized that those touchscreen devices are inferior for their primary purpose; being a phone. I know quite a few who "downgraded" their iphones to old fashioned devices with a real keypad (mostly nokias) after the novelty had worn off.
    - gnaffle 15y ago
      Actually, my experience is that a lot of people are getting smartphones that hate their computer and rarely use it, and just want a good phone. My mother got an iPhone, not because she wanted lots of apps, but because the user interface was simple enough to understand and use for making phone calls, and because she never figured out the T9 stuff. I was quite surprised when I discovered that she'd figured out how to use Safari on her own. Some other friends got an iPhone after buying and iPod touch for watching videos and listening to music while commuting, and gradually discovered that it was pointless carrying around two devices. So the potential market is very big IMO, and only limited to how far down the price can be pushed. Of course, there will always be a big market for "non"-smartphones, as these will get cheaper as well and reach even more people.

immortalbeast 15y ago

i like Android. Sprint and T-Mobile are already swamped with Android phones. There's no room for growth there. the iPhone is already the best selling smartphone on Verizon after only 4-5 months. http://allthingsd.com/20110622/whats-the-top-selling-phone-at-verizon-and-att/ http://allthingsd.com/20110622/whats-the-top-selling-phone-a... Android should go after AT&T fast.

Pooter 15y ago
There are already Android handsets on AT&T, and the iPhone still sells better there (per the link you provide).
RainFlutter 15y ago
Well of course it's the best selling phone. Apple bets the entire platform on a single phone; Android has a panoply of options competing against each other. If the iPhone were being consistently outsold by any one of the various Android models, that would be a sign that something was going seriously wrong for Apple. That article merely demonstrates that statistics will tell you anything.

manthizzle 15y ago

Nielson's data: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/in-us-smartphones-now-majority-of-new-cellphone-purchases/ http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/in-us-smar... Nielson's analysis is equally bad. FTA, "Android share of recent acquirers flattened in 2011; Apple is now driving smartphone growth." This is simply not true. Android is still grabbing the largest portion of new smartphone users.

imperialWicket 15y ago
The analysis and wording are misleading, but I find it hard to believe that no one identifies the Verizon iPhone launch as a motivator for these numbers. There's a clear stall in new smartphone user iPhone purchases that starts right after WSJ announced the Verizon iPhone launch. There's also a clear spike when the Verizon iPhone launch occurred. I guess you could say Apple's departments handling marketing and Verizon launch details are driving smartphone adoption.

protomyth 15y ago

It will be interesting to see what happens on the next iPhone refresh. AT&T is offering the 3gs for "free" with a 2 year contract. If Apple has a replacement that can fit that slot for both AT&T and Verizon, then it will probably do some significant things to the iPhone market share (and seriously accelerate the iPod lines decreasing numbers).

bryanlarsen 15y ago
Yes, that's definitely the sweet spot. It's hard for Android to sell "cheaper than free". ("free" is far from "free", but it sounds good). In Canada where the rule is 3 year contracts (and thus free is even more expensive than in the States), I've seen low-end Androids for $0 with 3 year contract, no data plan required and 2 phones + a PS3 for 2 three year contracts.
- shinratdr 15y ago
  > In Canada where the rule is 3 year contracts (and thus free is even more expensive than in the States), I've seen low-end Androids for $0 with 3 year contract, no data plan required and 2 phones + a PS3 for 2 three year contracts. True, but Canada has a strangely high iOS adoption rate and carriers are just doing whatever the hell they can to increase that existing 9% of Canadian smartphone users that own Androids. I think it's because they can negotiate better with the individual Android device makers than they can negotiate with Apple or even RIM.
uptown 15y ago
To throw another variable in there, I expect to see the iPhone on Sprint before the end of the year.

barista 15y ago

Apple up, Android flat and Microsoft Nowhere in smartphone growth.

thedeuce 15y ago

I can't watch to ditch this android for iphone... I tried to talk a few people out of androids here at work, but they didn't listen until about a week after using it; Finally they realized I was telling the truth and returned their phones for iphones!

shinratdr 15y ago

Smartphone statistics are pretty unhelpful when it comes to evaluating iOS because they don't factor in the 100+ million iPads & iPod touches out there. It helps to remember this when reading arguments about the App Store & the Android Market, because it's often forgotten or dismissed.

rabidsnail 15y ago

The number I care about (which I haven't been able to find, not that I looked very hard) is how many unique (per user) app installations there were per month for each platform. The number of users is only useful if users of all platforms install apps at the same rate, which my intuition says is not true. Many android phones are sold as "the nice phone that you can get with your 2-year contract" as opposed to an item that the owner sought out explicitly, so they're less likely to explore the full potential of the device.

gamble 15y ago

I could tell that Android's growth had stalled when people stopped posting nigh-weekly updates of Android's market share on HN.