Remember, USA won the Moon race by running centrally-planned project with strong government leadership, while USSR lost Moon race by having Korolev, Chelomey an

Remember, USA won the Moon race by running centrally-planned project with strong government leadership, while USSR lost Moon race by having Korolev, Chelomey and Yangel design bureaus competing with each other. In this case we have SpaceX as a driving force and potentially NASA which provides much needed incentives - both to SpaceX (they won't reject the money) and others (so SpaceX knows it's not alone). Government is still critical, as there is little commercial gain to get in a short term from the Moon. SpaceX has a couple of aces at hand - Starlink and potential for wide use of Starship near Earth. China companies don't have as much of commercial incentives - for them, government participation is even more critical.