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I appreciate the attempt at analysis, but I'm not sure the numbers are so easy. The number of people I know of who had COVID a year ago runs around 5-10 (this i

I appreciate the attempt at analysis, but I'm not sure the numbers are so easy. The number of people I know of who had COVID a year ago runs around 5-10 (this is all second degree connections), so that'd be 1 in 100-200. True, we don't know how many people visiting this page are willing to share similar anecdote. But as a personal matter it's enough to change my behavior and concerns.

saalweachter 5y ago
Yeah, as per the other person's reply, it's probably more accurate to estimate that 1 in 100 people will have anecdotes of someone catching COVID twice, based on the measured reinfection rate. If we knew the number of distinct people reading this, we could estimate how many people we could get anecdotes from, but I would be unsurprised if 10 or more people could chime in. There might be other factors that would push the reinfection rate higher (eg, if people are less likely to get another COVID test after having had it once, because they assume that's the one thing it can't be), and it's also worth remembering that a 1-in-1000 reinfection rate combined with ~10% of the population catching it means that closer to 1-in-100 people don't develop a lasting immunity [and the other 9-in-1000 just didn't catch it a second time].