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Historical: Except in those cases most printed money went to banks, buying their bad loans. Which had already affected house prices by 2008, and only affected a

by zpeti 5y ago

Historical: Except in those cases most printed money went to banks, buying their bad loans. Which had already affected house prices by 2008, and only affected asset and commodity prices, which did rise in price since 2008. This time round you have more and more stimulus going to ordinary people, who will spend it on ordinary goods like food. That will create a different type of inflation. (I’m not endorsing either type of bailout/stimulus btw)

ethbr0 5y ago
It's a fair point. But on the other hand, we had substantially depressed demand in a lot of industries for a year+ due to the pandemic. And while some of that money found alternate outlets (home improvement, streaming services [0]), the uptick in savings indicated a lot of it pooled [1], and the postponed evictions and rent / loan payments resulted in delayed debt obligations (which are difficult to find numbers on, in total?). So as usual, arrows pointing both ways. [0] https://www.familyhandyman.com/article/home-improvement-spending-rising/ https://www.familyhandyman.com/article/home-improvement-spen... [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=DXqc https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=DXqc (2019-2021 savings rate)
RC_ITR 5y ago
Boy would you be surprised to see that food inflation is decelerating and has been since the stimulus started! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL
- zpeti 5y ago
  Have you seen the Bloomberg agricultural price index recently?
  - RC_ITR 5y ago
    Do me a favor. Log into your terminal, type in 'BCOMAGSP Index'. Hit Go. Then hit 'Max.' Look at the spike in 2010. Then tell me about the runaway food inflation that happened then. EDIT: Just to be clear on my point: Yes I agree that people are hedging inflation via commodity futures (like they do after most recessions), but that doesn't mean they're right. In the same way stock prices are often a bad indication of a company's actual value.

by zpeti 5y ago

ethbr0 5y ago

It's a fair point. But on the other hand, we had substantially depressed demand in a lot of industries for a year+ due to the pandemic. And while some of that money found alternate outlets (home improvement, streaming services [0]), the uptick in savings indicated a lot of it pooled [1], and the postponed evictions and rent / loan payments resulted in delayed debt obligations (which are difficult to find numbers on, in total?). So as usual, arrows pointing both ways. [0] https://www.familyhandyman.com/article/home-improvement-spending-rising/ https://www.familyhandyman.com/article/home-improvement-spen... [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=DXqc https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=DXqc (2019-2021 savings rate)

RC_ITR 5y ago

Boy would you be surprised to see that food inflation is decelerating and has been since the stimulus started! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL

zpeti 5y ago
Have you seen the Bloomberg agricultural price index recently?
- RC_ITR 5y ago
  Do me a favor. Log into your terminal, type in 'BCOMAGSP Index'. Hit Go. Then hit 'Max.' Look at the spike in 2010. Then tell me about the runaway food inflation that happened then. EDIT: Just to be clear on my point: Yes I agree that people are hedging inflation via commodity futures (like they do after most recessions), but that doesn't mean they're right. In the same way stock prices are often a bad indication of a company's actual value.