4 ms·

It seems to be 0.9% MoM. While still high, a lot of the YoY numbers dominating these headline are driven by statistical base effect from covid anomalies 12 mont

It seems to be 0.9% MoM. While still high, a lot of the YoY numbers dominating these headline are driven by statistical base effect from covid anomalies 12 months ago. Given we're still in recovery mode from Covid, I'd expect more anomalies to show up in econ data over the coming months. I don't think there's anything persistently big on the horizont w.r.t to inflation.

aidenn0 5y ago
Money supply has been going way up, and we've seen massive asset inflation. Consumer prices have to catch up to that at some point, right? Particularly since we are hearing more from the manufacturing sector about COGS going up.
- mywittyname 5y ago
  It's difficult to really judge how much of an impact money supply increases are having on the cost of goods since there are also massive supply issues. For example, prices for housing materials have been skyrocketing for years; well before covid. Back then it was blamed on other unpopular political situations (trade war, mostly). Now it's blamed on covid relief. Once production stabilizes, we'll have a better way to measure inflation due to money supply increases against inflation due to supply shortages.
  - dominotw 5y ago
    > Once production stabilizes, we'll have a better way to measure inflation due to money supply increases against inflation due to supply shortages. Wont the rents for workers go up due to housing price inflation?
    - twalla 5y ago
      Low interest rates should keep some of that in check but it will be offset by the rise in property taxes being calculated off the "new normal" home prices we're seeing. Basically, whatever property tax increases are capped at, expect to see an increase of about that much if not more YoY after people start paying taxes on their new homes.
- monkeydreams 5y ago
  > Money supply has been going way up, and we've seen massive asset inflation. Money supply goes up, velocity goes waaay down. Net inflation impact.. nearly zero. This inflation appears to be a combination of the US economy seeking a post-COVID equilibrium and the impact of stimulus spending.
  - aidenn0 5y ago
    If the democrats accomplish pretty much any of their progressive reforms, that will likely have a positive effect on velocity.

aidenn0 5y ago

Money supply has been going way up, and we've seen massive asset inflation. Consumer prices have to catch up to that at some point, right? Particularly since we are hearing more from the manufacturing sector about COGS going up.

mywittyname 5y ago
It's difficult to really judge how much of an impact money supply increases are having on the cost of goods since there are also massive supply issues. For example, prices for housing materials have been skyrocketing for years; well before covid. Back then it was blamed on other unpopular political situations (trade war, mostly). Now it's blamed on covid relief. Once production stabilizes, we'll have a better way to measure inflation due to money supply increases against inflation due to supply shortages.
- dominotw 5y ago
  > Once production stabilizes, we'll have a better way to measure inflation due to money supply increases against inflation due to supply shortages. Wont the rents for workers go up due to housing price inflation?
  - twalla 5y ago
    Low interest rates should keep some of that in check but it will be offset by the rise in property taxes being calculated off the "new normal" home prices we're seeing. Basically, whatever property tax increases are capped at, expect to see an increase of about that much if not more YoY after people start paying taxes on their new homes.
monkeydreams 5y ago
> Money supply has been going way up, and we've seen massive asset inflation. Money supply goes up, velocity goes waaay down. Net inflation impact.. nearly zero. This inflation appears to be a combination of the US economy seeking a post-COVID equilibrium and the impact of stimulus spending.
- aidenn0 5y ago
  If the democrats accomplish pretty much any of their progressive reforms, that will likely have a positive effect on velocity.