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Lithium batteries have tripled in energy density since 2010 while the price has dropped about 90% I believe. I was pretty skeptical when Tesla announced the Se

Lithium batteries have tripled in energy density since 2010 while the price has dropped about 90% I believe. I was pretty skeptical when Tesla announced the Semi but the trend lines are there if not on Elons over promise timeline. I agree it will be some time before they are viable for long haul, but a lot due to charging infrastructure. Weight is the big question mark, I am anxious to see the Tesla semi battery weight and final capacity to see how viable it is. My guess is around 10,000lbs and a megawatt-hour capacity for 500 mile range. I imagine them trying to do a structural battery to try and make up for its weight. The equivalent diesel drivetrain is under 5000lbs including engine and can have up to 2000 miles range.

whatever1 5y ago
“Lithium batteries have tripled in energy density since 2010” No they have not. My 2021 iPhone does not have triple the energy density of the 2010 iPhone. The battery cells have improved but that is a packaging improvement, not battery improvement. Other companies are doing pouches for example. And then there is the question of cooling, do you include it in the weight calculations? From what we know a Tesla model S in 2020 does not have triple the capacity of the model s of 2012. We only saw an increase from 85kwh to 100kwh in 2020. That is 20% increase not 300%.
- SigmundA 5y ago
  https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-io...
- bronson 5y ago
  Your iPhone example is problematic because Apple has so many competing requirements, but ok... Battery capacity from the iPhone 3gs to the 12 increased by over 2X. Sure, some of it is packaging (the 12 is 15% heavier) but the biggest factor is better chemistry. Would you have been OK with GP saying 2X instead of 3X?
  - whatever1 5y ago
    No, because newer iPhones are larger and have physically larger and heavier batteries that help them store more energy. iPhone 11 has a density of 250 wh/kg and the iPhone 4 was around 200 wh/kg. That is again not even close to 300% increase I am looking at apples documentation. Not sure where you folks are coming up with your imaginary numbers. https://web.archive.org/web/20191007202842/https://www.apple.com/legal/more-resources/docs/apple-product-information-sheet.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20191007202842/https://www.apple....
    - bronson 5y ago
      You're comparing less than ten years. Here's what I see, 2009-2019: iPhone 3g: 4.5 Wh / 0.0335 kg = 134 Wh/kg iPhone 11: 11.91 Wh / 0.047 kg = 253 Wh/kg For a 1.9X improvement. Agreed, consumers aren't seeing 3X. But they should be seeing better than 20%.
      - whatever1 5y ago
        Not sure where you found the data for 3g and whether they follow the same methodology as apple (the report shows up to iphone 4 which was introduced in 2010), but even if I assume that they are correct, what you are proposing is even more far-fetched. That in 2010 something dramatic happened in the battery technology world and they doubled in density overnight. Hint: No they did not.

whatever1 5y ago

“Lithium batteries have tripled in energy density since 2010” No they have not. My 2021 iPhone does not have triple the energy density of the 2010 iPhone. The battery cells have improved but that is a packaging improvement, not battery improvement. Other companies are doing pouches for example. And then there is the question of cooling, do you include it in the weight calculations? From what we know a Tesla model S in 2020 does not have triple the capacity of the model s of 2012. We only saw an increase from 85kwh to 100kwh in 2020. That is 20% increase not 300%.

SigmundA 5y ago
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-io...
bronson 5y ago
Your iPhone example is problematic because Apple has so many competing requirements, but ok... Battery capacity from the iPhone 3gs to the 12 increased by over 2X. Sure, some of it is packaging (the 12 is 15% heavier) but the biggest factor is better chemistry. Would you have been OK with GP saying 2X instead of 3X?
- whatever1 5y ago
  No, because newer iPhones are larger and have physically larger and heavier batteries that help them store more energy. iPhone 11 has a density of 250 wh/kg and the iPhone 4 was around 200 wh/kg. That is again not even close to 300% increase I am looking at apples documentation. Not sure where you folks are coming up with your imaginary numbers. https://web.archive.org/web/20191007202842/https://www.apple.com/legal/more-resources/docs/apple-product-information-sheet.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20191007202842/https://www.apple....
  - bronson 5y ago
    You're comparing less than ten years. Here's what I see, 2009-2019: iPhone 3g: 4.5 Wh / 0.0335 kg = 134 Wh/kg iPhone 11: 11.91 Wh / 0.047 kg = 253 Wh/kg For a 1.9X improvement. Agreed, consumers aren't seeing 3X. But they should be seeing better than 20%.
    - whatever1 5y ago
      Not sure where you found the data for 3g and whether they follow the same methodology as apple (the report shows up to iphone 4 which was introduced in 2010), but even if I assume that they are correct, what you are proposing is even more far-fetched. That in 2010 something dramatic happened in the battery technology world and they doubled in density overnight. Hint: No they did not.