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> It was reducing / stagnating inflation I think the point was that Brazil attempted multiple times to stop inflation. The problem in a cycle of hyperinflation
by wahern 5y ago
> It was reducing / stagnating inflation
I think the point was that Brazil attempted multiple times to stop inflation. The problem in a cycle of hyperinflation is that it runs away from you--any measure you enact to stabilize prices is immediately out-of-date. Depending on your approach, that leaves various segments of the economy, e.g. consumers, screwed. If you have 100% inflation per month, if you freeze wages (e.g. through state-owned enterprise) one week but market prices continue increasing for another month because of momentum, you can only buy half as much. This creates enormous political pressures and animosities as you allude, which usually results in the government returning to money printing.
Ultimately, a government can't dictate prices even temporarily across an entire market, at least not instantaneously amidst hyperinflation. The point of the fake money was to prime market expectations, presumably especially in the supply chain. Because attempts to manage and slow the built-in expectation of inflation of the existing currency repeatedly failed, instead they created an alternative denomination against which people didn't have set expectations, notwithstanding shifting conversion rates. And it apparently worked. This seems notable because the usual fix for hyperinflation is to just adopt a foreign currency. The fact it worked highlights how the problem at hand was fundamentally a matter of managing market sentiment, not some intrinsic quality of a currency or its issuer.
- photojosh 5y ago> the usual fix for hyperinflation is to just adopt a foreign currency. Or just peg your own to the USD. From the Wikipedia article another comment posted [0]: > URVs were quoted in cruzeiros reais and its intrinsic value was pegged to three price indices and had a fixed parity of 1-to-1 to the daily U.S. dollar exchange rate. I'm a tad confused as to how they pegged it both to price indices AND the USD exchange rate. The problem with pegging your currency is that you get a disconnect between the official value and the private value. So introducing this new currency which was pegged, and transferring over only once the disconnect was resolved was the stroke of genius. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidade_real_de_valor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidade_real_de_valor
- bobthepanda 5y agoThis peg kind of worked because the government also introduced fiscal and monetary policy to contract the money supply at the same time. If you stick to old habits no one will believe the new currency won't inflate and you get stuck in the same cycle. Pegs don't have a great history; the UK was painfully ejected from the ERM peg (which would be superseded by the Euro) and the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis brought an end to several USD pegs.