3 ms·

Not that I doubt you, but it is pretty common here in the USA to _assume_ every cold/allergy etc. is COVID-19, even without a positive PCR or anti-gen test. Did

Not that I doubt you, but it is pretty common here in the USA to _assume_ every cold/allergy etc. is COVID-19, even without a positive PCR or anti-gen test. Did the folks you know get positively tested, or did sx just match?

singhrac 5y ago
So not to pour more anecdotal fuel on the fire, so to speak, but I know of someone who had a confirmed case of COVID last spring in the US, then was tested for antibodies this spring and had few, and then caught it again in India a few weeks ago. Each time was symptomatic. Again, a single data point, I'd be happy to believe that there's lasting immunity.
- saalweachter 5y ago
  With the re-infection rate given above -- 1 in 1000 -- if people ~know about 100 people, you'd expect about 1 in 10 people to have an anecdote about someone getting COVID twice.
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    Need to account for % infected. I know of ~3 people that I know that have been infected. That's not counting a few people at work that I don't really know and things like that.
  - singhrac 5y ago
    I appreciate the attempt at analysis, but I'm not sure the numbers are so easy. The number of people I know of who had COVID a year ago runs around 5-10 (this is all second degree connections), so that'd be 1 in 100-200. True, we don't know how many people visiting this page are willing to share similar anecdote. But as a personal matter it's enough to change my behavior and concerns.
    - saalweachter 5y ago
      Yeah, as per the other person's reply, it's probably more accurate to estimate that 1 in 100 people will have anecdotes of someone catching COVID twice, based on the measured reinfection rate. If we knew the number of distinct people reading this, we could estimate how many people we could get anecdotes from, but I would be unsurprised if 10 or more people could chime in. There might be other factors that would push the reinfection rate higher (eg, if people are less likely to get another COVID test after having had it once, because they assume that's the one thing it can't be), and it's also worth remembering that a 1-in-1000 reinfection rate combined with ~10% of the population catching it means that closer to 1-in-100 people don't develop a lasting immunity [and the other 9-in-1000 just didn't catch it a second time].

singhrac 5y ago

So not to pour more anecdotal fuel on the fire, so to speak, but I know of someone who had a confirmed case of COVID last spring in the US, then was tested for antibodies this spring and had few, and then caught it again in India a few weeks ago. Each time was symptomatic. Again, a single data point, I'd be happy to believe that there's lasting immunity.

saalweachter 5y ago
With the re-infection rate given above -- 1 in 1000 -- if people ~know about 100 people, you'd expect about 1 in 10 people to have an anecdote about someone getting COVID twice.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  Need to account for % infected. I know of ~3 people that I know that have been infected. That's not counting a few people at work that I don't really know and things like that.
- singhrac 5y ago
  I appreciate the attempt at analysis, but I'm not sure the numbers are so easy. The number of people I know of who had COVID a year ago runs around 5-10 (this is all second degree connections), so that'd be 1 in 100-200. True, we don't know how many people visiting this page are willing to share similar anecdote. But as a personal matter it's enough to change my behavior and concerns.
  - saalweachter 5y ago
    Yeah, as per the other person's reply, it's probably more accurate to estimate that 1 in 100 people will have anecdotes of someone catching COVID twice, based on the measured reinfection rate. If we knew the number of distinct people reading this, we could estimate how many people we could get anecdotes from, but I would be unsurprised if 10 or more people could chime in. There might be other factors that would push the reinfection rate higher (eg, if people are less likely to get another COVID test after having had it once, because they assume that's the one thing it can't be), and it's also worth remembering that a 1-in-1000 reinfection rate combined with ~10% of the population catching it means that closer to 1-in-100 people don't develop a lasting immunity [and the other 9-in-1000 just didn't catch it a second time].