6 ms·

Looking at the chart 2.6 percent seem quite average, so what’s the big news?

by sonium 5y ago

JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
Well the prices I see around me are up a lot more than 2.6%. My latest sticker shock was at Lowe's.- https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk
- nkozyra 5y ago
  The Anecdotal Price Index is historically less accurate than CPI.
  - JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
    Or has the CPI been fudging the numbers for a very long time? https://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-you-want-to-know-the-real-rate-of-inflation-dont-bother- https://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-yo... with-the-cpi/ And this article is 7 years old, I can't imagine Perianne's reaction to the current M2 money supply of 20 trillion, almost double the 10 trillion when she wrote it in 2014. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL Seems like yet another example of Goodhart's Law. "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." I own many homes, I see their value go up much more than 2.6%. Yes anecdotal but it is very obvious to anyone that has tried to buy anything recently.
    - prichino 5y ago
      Oh lookie, someone has been calculating the numbers using the old methodology. We are much poorer than we thought. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
      - throw0101a 5y ago
        > Oh lookie, someone has been calculating the numbers using the old methodology. They have been doing no such thing. They have not put any effort into "calculating" anything. They simply take the official BLS and add a constant. They say so themselves: > Responding to prior criticisms made by economist James Hamilton, John Williams explained in a private phone call that Shadowstats does not actually recalculate BLS data, rather, the Shadowstats CPI merely adds a constant to the officially reported numbers.[25] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com The number at that site will always be higher than the BLS number because the people who run that site think it should be higher. They publish no methodology to recreate their number. Whereas if you want to look at what BLS is doing you can download code: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project Also, the official Shadowstats.com report costs $175 today (2021-05-11). However: > Shadowstats doesn’t come cheap: currently, an annual subscription costs $175. > Six years ago, an annual subscription cost … $175. * https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/another-alternative-inflation-measure/ https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/another-alterna... $175. Huh. Where's that inflation?
    - throw0101a 5y ago
      > https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL And velocity (V) has dropped off a cliff: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#Link_with_inflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#Link_with_inflati...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- Der_Einzige 5y ago
  Construction related stuff is way up right now everywhere due to the housing / renovation boom.
  - ksdale 5y ago
    Just this morning, I read this newsletter about lumber prices that seems to provide a very plausible explanation -https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/lumber-price-faq https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/lumber-price-faq
  - throwawaysea 5y ago
    The housing boom is itself an effect of the current fiscal policy. Housing also tends to attract investment when inflation is happening.
- dhritzkiv 5y ago
  For anyone else wondering, like I was, this is a photo of copper wiring. I'm guessing thick gauge (6AWG) for dealing with high amperage. Not sure what the /3 signifies.
  - MikeAmelung 5y ago
    It's 3 individual 6 gauge conductors in a single outer sheath.
    - blhack 5y ago
      Most commonly referred to as "romex". It's what is in the wall of your house (most likely).
- throw0101a 5y ago
  > https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk While amusing anecdata, your picture of a copper cable price is an indication of not much: > Well, booming economies often run into temporary bottlenecks, which show up in surging prices for selected goods. For example, the price of copper tripled between December 2008 and February 2011, even though recovery from the 2008 recession was fairly sluggish. * https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/opinion/us-inflation-federal-reserve.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/opinion/us-inflation-fede... * https://archive.is/64iz2 https://archive.is/64iz2 For a history of copper prices see: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOPPUSDM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOPPUSDM If you look up the inflation rate 2008-2011 you'll find it was nothing to write home about.
- pie420 5y ago
  People pretend like HN is full of smart people, but then you still have entire threads of "I DONT CARE ABOUT DATA JUST LOOK AT MY ANECDOTES"
  - dang 5y ago
    "Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html HN threads are conversations. Anecdotes are the life blood of conversation. This is just people being human, as they should be. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=by%3Adang%20anecdotes%20conversation&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...

Looking at the chart 2.6 percent seem quite average, so what’s the big news?

by sonium 5y ago

Looking at the chart 2.6 percent seem quite average, so what’s the big news?

Well the prices I see around me are up a lot more than 2.6%. My latest sticker shock was at Lowe's.- https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk

nkozyra 5y ago
The Anecdotal Price Index is historically less accurate than CPI.
- JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
  Or has the CPI been fudging the numbers for a very long time? https://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-you-want-to-know-the-real-rate-of-inflation-dont-bother- https://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-yo... with-the-cpi/ And this article is 7 years old, I can't imagine Perianne's reaction to the current M2 money supply of 20 trillion, almost double the 10 trillion when she wrote it in 2014. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL Seems like yet another example of Goodhart's Law. "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." I own many homes, I see their value go up much more than 2.6%. Yes anecdotal but it is very obvious to anyone that has tried to buy anything recently.
  - prichino 5y ago
    Oh lookie, someone has been calculating the numbers using the old methodology. We are much poorer than we thought. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
    - throw0101a 5y ago
      > Oh lookie, someone has been calculating the numbers using the old methodology. They have been doing no such thing. They have not put any effort into "calculating" anything. They simply take the official BLS and add a constant. They say so themselves: > Responding to prior criticisms made by economist James Hamilton, John Williams explained in a private phone call that Shadowstats does not actually recalculate BLS data, rather, the Shadowstats CPI merely adds a constant to the officially reported numbers.[25] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com The number at that site will always be higher than the BLS number because the people who run that site think it should be higher. They publish no methodology to recreate their number. Whereas if you want to look at what BLS is doing you can download code: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project Also, the official Shadowstats.com report costs $175 today (2021-05-11). However: > Shadowstats doesn’t come cheap: currently, an annual subscription costs $175. > Six years ago, an annual subscription cost … $175. * https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/another-alternative-inflation-measure/ https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/another-alterna... $175. Huh. Where's that inflation?
  - throw0101a 5y ago
    > https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL And velocity (V) has dropped off a cliff: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#Link_with_inflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#Link_with_inflati...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
Der_Einzige 5y ago
Construction related stuff is way up right now everywhere due to the housing / renovation boom.
- ksdale 5y ago
  Just this morning, I read this newsletter about lumber prices that seems to provide a very plausible explanation -https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/lumber-price-faq https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/lumber-price-faq
- throwawaysea 5y ago
  The housing boom is itself an effect of the current fiscal policy. Housing also tends to attract investment when inflation is happening.
dhritzkiv 5y ago
For anyone else wondering, like I was, this is a photo of copper wiring. I'm guessing thick gauge (6AWG) for dealing with high amperage. Not sure what the /3 signifies.
- MikeAmelung 5y ago
  It's 3 individual 6 gauge conductors in a single outer sheath.
  - blhack 5y ago
    Most commonly referred to as "romex". It's what is in the wall of your house (most likely).
throw0101a 5y ago
> https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk While amusing anecdata, your picture of a copper cable price is an indication of not much: > Well, booming economies often run into temporary bottlenecks, which show up in surging prices for selected goods. For example, the price of copper tripled between December 2008 and February 2011, even though recovery from the 2008 recession was fairly sluggish. * https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/opinion/us-inflation-federal-reserve.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/opinion/us-inflation-fede... * https://archive.is/64iz2 https://archive.is/64iz2 For a history of copper prices see: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOPPUSDM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOPPUSDM If you look up the inflation rate 2008-2011 you'll find it was nothing to write home about.
pie420 5y ago
People pretend like HN is full of smart people, but then you still have entire threads of "I DONT CARE ABOUT DATA JUST LOOK AT MY ANECDOTES"
- dang 5y ago
  "Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html HN threads are conversations. Anecdotes are the life blood of conversation. This is just people being human, as they should be. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=by%3Adang%20anecdotes%20conversation&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...