14 ms·

Anyone who has been to a supermarket in the last 12 months knows that the 2.6 percent increase in consumer prices is observably not true. I buy the same basket

Anyone who has been to a supermarket in the last 12 months knows that the 2.6 percent increase in consumer prices is observably not true. I buy the same basket of the generic products ( chicken quarters, produce, beef, eggs, bacon, dairy products ) . Compared to this time in 2020 I'm spending at least 20% more. People who buy processed food(s) are spending at least 30% more.

jrsj 5y ago
Somehow everyone seems has this experience, rents have continued to climb at a high rate for the last decade, and they manage to downplay this in statistics.
- asquabventured 5y ago
  The "basket of goods" they use to measure inflation is purposefully gamed to under represent purchases everyone makes weekly that are "volatile". But good news is that DVD players are cheaper than ever so inflation must be low!
  - AnotherGoodName 5y ago
    Fuel, which isn't purchased as often since the pandemic started has maintained its CPI weighting and has gone down dramatically however. Inflation is one of those things where if it's clearly stated as being extremely high can risk a lot of followon effects as everyone divests themselves of any direct monetary assets.
  - drewcon 5y ago
    Care to cite evidence of this conspiracy?
- chrischen 5y ago
  Or maybe everyone who has been having this experience is posting about it, because otherwise there's nothing to post about.
  - jonnycomputer 5y ago
    this. presentation bias is everywhere.
  - jrsj 5y ago
    This is an obvious and simple explanation yes but I think it’s only part of the story. CPI numbers are brought down by considering a lot of non-essential goods while almost everything you actually need — food, shelter, healthcare in particular has gotten considerably more expensive. So the sentiment is exacerbated by the fact that nobody really cares whether TVs etc are getting cheaper in their day to day lives.
    - chrischen 5y ago
      Given that there's been a massive shift in allocation of spending due to the pandemic I would take any claims like this with a now expensive grain of salt. Let's not forget at the start of the pandemic toilet paper was going for $1 a roll.
- anotherman554 5y ago
  In 2011, my rent was $1,420 a month. In 2021 my rent is $1,610 a month. According to the published inflation numbers my rent has gone down because it should be $1,672 if accounting for inflation. I don't live in California-- maybe things are different there-- but I don't buy the conspiracy theories about inflation numbers.
  - ModernMech 5y ago
    In 2009 my rent was $550 in Pittsburgh. I just looked and today the same unit is going for $980, a 78% increase. According to published inflation numbers that should be a 23.5% increase to $679 today. So at least from our two examples we can see the effect is not evenly distributed. edit: incidentally, in 2009 the minimum wage was $7.25, and my rent would have been 47% of my gross income. Today the minimum wage is still $7.25 and if I had stayed at the same apartment at the same wage, my rent would be 84% of my gross income.
  - jrsj 5y ago
    On average rents have doubled since 2006, but yes this varies from place to place. Not just in big cities though, it’s been in both cities & rural areas around me in Ohio as an example.
drewcon 5y ago
Good thing CPI isn’t calculated using anecdotal evidence from “anyone who has been to the supermarket”. Learn more about the calculation here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04132021.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04132021.htm
- ardit33 5y ago
  CPI is rigged, as it doesn't account for many items that people spend money on If you think it is a fair indication, I have a bridge to sell to you
  - drewcon 5y ago
    CPI isn’t “rigged”. CPI measures exactly what it measures and measures it transparently. Whether you think it and it’s constituent parts are good metric for measuring inflation is a different conversation. But that doesn’t make it “rigged”.
    - henriquez 5y ago
      CPI is rigged in the sense that it is one attribute that status quo-apologists trot out to say “nothing to see here” when the real cost of goods is observably higher for all but the ultra-wealthy. “It’s not hyperinflation, it’s just that everything you conceivably want to buy is coincidentally much more expensive, because [reasons].”
      - drewcon 5y ago
        “The real cost of goods is observably higher”? I don’t get how anecdotal evidence trumps repeatedly buying and measuring the cost of a vast cross section of products everyday people consume? Help me understand the conspiracy here? Who is doing the rigging and how?
        henriquez 5y ago
        The Fed and U.S. government are rigging our economic system to backdoor tax the middle class while gaslighting all of us into thinking that this is normal. You don’t print $10T and handwave away millennia of basic economic principles. Help me understand how CPI is not a joke with respect to how it’s used to say “this is normal.” Everything I’m interested in spending money on, new hires for my company, real estate, cars, computer hardware, food, lumber, gas. All of this is coincidentally more expensive sometimes by a factor of more than 2x from two years ago? Nope, not buying it.
ardit33 5y ago
Since I cook meat often, I kept track of the Trader Joe's meats from early 2020, to know Flank steak went from $8.99/lb to $12/lb NY Strip, from $10.99 to $14.99 Fillet Mignon from $18.99 to $24.99 Chick has gone up the same. For many food items, inflation is 10% - 15% or more
- executive 5y ago
  Just post the in-store prices and there will be an end to the horror.
- splithalf 5y ago
  Consider fake meat. A veggie burger used to cost a buck or so. Compare that to today’s beyond beef which is almost beyond beef in price. Hedonic adjustments in everything.
  - Erik816 5y ago
    The difference is that flank steak is still flank steak, while the veggie substitutes may have improved in quality over time.
xendipity 5y ago
Read a bit more and you'll find > Prices for food at home increased 3.3 percent over the past 12 months. All six major grocery store food group prices advanced over the period, with increases ranging from 1.6 percent (dairy and related products) to 5.4 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs). Prices for food away from home rose 3.7 percent, as the 6.5-percent advance in prices for limited services meals was the largest 12-month increase since data were first collected in 1997. Doesn't quite fill your 20% claim, but 5.5% for meats and 6.5 for limited services meals (places where you primarily order at the counter/drive-through/online) is quite the bump!
- missedthecue 5y ago
  I think he is asserting that the CPI is manipulated to the downside. Trying to refute his point with CPI numbers is like quoting Bible verses to an atheist.
chickenpotpie 5y ago
I'm going to believe the massive study over your single data point
- nostromo 5y ago
  Both can be correct, and likely are. HN doesn't live in "America" - we live in a bunch of different cities with different economies. This is actually a key problem with the Fed's tools -- they're national in scale. Inflation can be low in Acron, OH, but very high in San Francisco.
  - koboll 5y ago
    What a surprise that this comment thread is full of software developers in HCOL areas anecdotally seeing prices rise faster than the national average!
    - notyourday 5y ago
      Most of the population lives in the urban high cost of living areas.
      - missedthecue 5y ago
        The top 300 biggest cities in the US are home to only ~20% of the population.
        machinebun 5y ago
        > The top 300 biggest cities in the US are home to only ~20% of the population. I think it's actually 20% for the top 100 cities; but a total of 62.5% of the population actually live in cities (82% live in urban areas - due to increase to 89% by 2050) https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/100-biggest-cities-have-59849899-people-and-rural-areas-have-59492267-people https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/100-biggest-cities-have-...
vkou 5y ago
On the other hand, anyone who's been trying to rent an apartment in a metro area for the last 12 months also knows that rent has dropped ~15-20%. I can't speak for you, but I pay a lot more for rent, than I do for groceries.
- notyourday 5y ago
  That only happened if you managed to sign the lease during the dip. The rents started to appreciably drop last summer, this means that over the past 12 months only people whose leases expired between summer and now were able to lock in the savings. I, for example, was not that lucky. So I'm just not going to have a massive rent increase.
  - minhazm 5y ago
    That's a period of like 10+ months. Peak rental season is usually in the summer too. Most people who were on 12 month leases would have had an opportunity to sign a new lease in this time. Even if they didn't, it's not like rents have recovered, you can still get far cheaper rent in many areas and will likely continue to be able to do for the next few months at least.
- koalaman 5y ago
  Not in Montreal. Rents and house prices are up up to 50% since COVID started.
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  Where I live in the exurbs, rents are climbing and inventory is extremely low. But I wonder if that's going to change once the eviction moratoriums expire. People who can't pay a year's worth of deferred rent are going to have to move in with someone else as having a recent eviction makes it nearly impossible to rent again. That's going to mean less demand for a growing supply of rentals.
NationalPark 5y ago
Here's some interesting info on how they collect data: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/design.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/design.htm
loosescrews 5y ago
While we are dealing in anecdotes, I buy mostly processed foods and I can only think of a single food item I regularly purchase that has seen a price increase, and that was small and due to a change in the grocery store's suppliers. In fact, I have been seeing more sales recently on items I would purchase anyway which I think has dropped my food costs a bit.
- cableshaft 5y ago
  Processed/packaged food/goods has another trick where they give you less but it seems like the same amount, and charge you the same, so you don't notice it as much. I bet you a lot of those things you're buying you're actually getting less than you were 1-2 years ago. They reduce the number of toilet roll sheets by 30-40, or the ounces in the package go down 3-4 oz, or they give you 1 less hot dog. Here's a site that tracks the downsizing (I've also seen it called 'Shrinkflation'), and there are a lot of examples on the site. I'm sure you'll find something (probably multiple somethings) you buy on there that got downsized in the last year or two. https://www.mouseprint.org/category/downsiz/ https://www.mouseprint.org/category/downsiz/ The top one on there shows they reduced Dorito's bags from 9 3/4 oz to 9 1/4 oz....sneaky sneaky!
ellipsisfrog 5y ago
You are being downvoted but this is also my experience. My grocery bill is up more than 15% like for like (I shop exclusively online so it's easy to track) and more than that in total because of volume increases. My utility rates are up >10%. Housing costs are way up where I live. I would guess my overall baseline cost of living is up at least 10% when you remove the impact from lower commuting and eating out costs.
- dewlinedew2 5y ago
  Watch out for downsizing of the containers too
  - novalis78 5y ago
    Precisely. There is manipulation across the board. Some of the packaging is getting really ridiculous. The argument that higher inflation would indicate that the economy has been contracting could be phrased differently: What if the "great slowdown" as per Peter Thiel is one in value, lack in progress, cheaper quality products, shaving off everywhere to retain a facade, pushing out real world goals and targets to future decades etc. This does not mean there won't be any progress or some obvious deflation (electronics, biotech). It's still an important discussion to be had (the effect of found monetary standards on the economy/technological progress. http://wtf1971.com/ http://wtf1971.com/ and The Bitcoin Standard obviously have a different perspective on these reported inflation numbers.
fumar 5y ago
No idea why this is downvoted. Our groceries and staple household items have increased at least 10% over the last year.

jrsj 5y ago

Somehow everyone seems has this experience, rents have continued to climb at a high rate for the last decade, and they manage to downplay this in statistics.

asquabventured 5y ago
The "basket of goods" they use to measure inflation is purposefully gamed to under represent purchases everyone makes weekly that are "volatile". But good news is that DVD players are cheaper than ever so inflation must be low!
- AnotherGoodName 5y ago
  Fuel, which isn't purchased as often since the pandemic started has maintained its CPI weighting and has gone down dramatically however. Inflation is one of those things where if it's clearly stated as being extremely high can risk a lot of followon effects as everyone divests themselves of any direct monetary assets.
- drewcon 5y ago
  Care to cite evidence of this conspiracy?
chrischen 5y ago
Or maybe everyone who has been having this experience is posting about it, because otherwise there's nothing to post about.
- jonnycomputer 5y ago
  this. presentation bias is everywhere.
- jrsj 5y ago
  This is an obvious and simple explanation yes but I think it’s only part of the story. CPI numbers are brought down by considering a lot of non-essential goods while almost everything you actually need — food, shelter, healthcare in particular has gotten considerably more expensive. So the sentiment is exacerbated by the fact that nobody really cares whether TVs etc are getting cheaper in their day to day lives.
  - chrischen 5y ago
    Given that there's been a massive shift in allocation of spending due to the pandemic I would take any claims like this with a now expensive grain of salt. Let's not forget at the start of the pandemic toilet paper was going for $1 a roll.
anotherman554 5y ago
In 2011, my rent was $1,420 a month. In 2021 my rent is $1,610 a month. According to the published inflation numbers my rent has gone down because it should be $1,672 if accounting for inflation. I don't live in California-- maybe things are different there-- but I don't buy the conspiracy theories about inflation numbers.
- ModernMech 5y ago
  In 2009 my rent was $550 in Pittsburgh. I just looked and today the same unit is going for $980, a 78% increase. According to published inflation numbers that should be a 23.5% increase to $679 today. So at least from our two examples we can see the effect is not evenly distributed. edit: incidentally, in 2009 the minimum wage was $7.25, and my rent would have been 47% of my gross income. Today the minimum wage is still $7.25 and if I had stayed at the same apartment at the same wage, my rent would be 84% of my gross income.
- jrsj 5y ago
  On average rents have doubled since 2006, but yes this varies from place to place. Not just in big cities though, it’s been in both cities & rural areas around me in Ohio as an example.

drewcon 5y ago

Good thing CPI isn’t calculated using anecdotal evidence from “anyone who has been to the supermarket”. Learn more about the calculation here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04132021.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04132021.htm

ardit33 5y ago
CPI is rigged, as it doesn't account for many items that people spend money on If you think it is a fair indication, I have a bridge to sell to you
- drewcon 5y ago
  CPI isn’t “rigged”. CPI measures exactly what it measures and measures it transparently. Whether you think it and it’s constituent parts are good metric for measuring inflation is a different conversation. But that doesn’t make it “rigged”.
  - henriquez 5y ago
    CPI is rigged in the sense that it is one attribute that status quo-apologists trot out to say “nothing to see here” when the real cost of goods is observably higher for all but the ultra-wealthy. “It’s not hyperinflation, it’s just that everything you conceivably want to buy is coincidentally much more expensive, because [reasons].”
    - drewcon 5y ago
      “The real cost of goods is observably higher”? I don’t get how anecdotal evidence trumps repeatedly buying and measuring the cost of a vast cross section of products everyday people consume? Help me understand the conspiracy here? Who is doing the rigging and how?
      - henriquez 5y ago
        The Fed and U.S. government are rigging our economic system to backdoor tax the middle class while gaslighting all of us into thinking that this is normal. You don’t print $10T and handwave away millennia of basic economic principles. Help me understand how CPI is not a joke with respect to how it’s used to say “this is normal.” Everything I’m interested in spending money on, new hires for my company, real estate, cars, computer hardware, food, lumber, gas. All of this is coincidentally more expensive sometimes by a factor of more than 2x from two years ago? Nope, not buying it.

ardit33 5y ago

Since I cook meat often, I kept track of the Trader Joe's meats from early 2020, to know Flank steak went from $8.99/lb to $12/lb NY Strip, from $10.99 to $14.99 Fillet Mignon from $18.99 to $24.99 Chick has gone up the same. For many food items, inflation is 10% - 15% or more

executive 5y ago
Just post the in-store prices and there will be an end to the horror.
splithalf 5y ago
Consider fake meat. A veggie burger used to cost a buck or so. Compare that to today’s beyond beef which is almost beyond beef in price. Hedonic adjustments in everything.
- Erik816 5y ago
  The difference is that flank steak is still flank steak, while the veggie substitutes may have improved in quality over time.

xendipity 5y ago

Read a bit more and you'll find > Prices for food at home increased 3.3 percent over the past 12 months. All six major grocery store food group prices advanced over the period, with increases ranging from 1.6 percent (dairy and related products) to 5.4 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs). Prices for food away from home rose 3.7 percent, as the 6.5-percent advance in prices for limited services meals was the largest 12-month increase since data were first collected in 1997. Doesn't quite fill your 20% claim, but 5.5% for meats and 6.5 for limited services meals (places where you primarily order at the counter/drive-through/online) is quite the bump!

missedthecue 5y ago
I think he is asserting that the CPI is manipulated to the downside. Trying to refute his point with CPI numbers is like quoting Bible verses to an atheist.

chickenpotpie 5y ago

I'm going to believe the massive study over your single data point

nostromo 5y ago
Both can be correct, and likely are. HN doesn't live in "America" - we live in a bunch of different cities with different economies. This is actually a key problem with the Fed's tools -- they're national in scale. Inflation can be low in Acron, OH, but very high in San Francisco.
- koboll 5y ago
  What a surprise that this comment thread is full of software developers in HCOL areas anecdotally seeing prices rise faster than the national average!
  - notyourday 5y ago
    Most of the population lives in the urban high cost of living areas.
    - missedthecue 5y ago
      The top 300 biggest cities in the US are home to only ~20% of the population.
      - machinebun 5y ago
        > The top 300 biggest cities in the US are home to only ~20% of the population. I think it's actually 20% for the top 100 cities; but a total of 62.5% of the population actually live in cities (82% live in urban areas - due to increase to 89% by 2050) https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/100-biggest-cities-have-59849899-people-and-rural-areas-have-59492267-people https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/100-biggest-cities-have-...

vkou 5y ago

On the other hand, anyone who's been trying to rent an apartment in a metro area for the last 12 months also knows that rent has dropped ~15-20%. I can't speak for you, but I pay a lot more for rent, than I do for groceries.

notyourday 5y ago
That only happened if you managed to sign the lease during the dip. The rents started to appreciably drop last summer, this means that over the past 12 months only people whose leases expired between summer and now were able to lock in the savings. I, for example, was not that lucky. So I'm just not going to have a massive rent increase.
- minhazm 5y ago
  That's a period of like 10+ months. Peak rental season is usually in the summer too. Most people who were on 12 month leases would have had an opportunity to sign a new lease in this time. Even if they didn't, it's not like rents have recovered, you can still get far cheaper rent in many areas and will likely continue to be able to do for the next few months at least.
koalaman 5y ago
Not in Montreal. Rents and house prices are up up to 50% since COVID started.
Mountain_Skies 5y ago
Where I live in the exurbs, rents are climbing and inventory is extremely low. But I wonder if that's going to change once the eviction moratoriums expire. People who can't pay a year's worth of deferred rent are going to have to move in with someone else as having a recent eviction makes it nearly impossible to rent again. That's going to mean less demand for a growing supply of rentals.

NationalPark 5y ago

Here's some interesting info on how they collect data: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/design.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/design.htm

loosescrews 5y ago

While we are dealing in anecdotes, I buy mostly processed foods and I can only think of a single food item I regularly purchase that has seen a price increase, and that was small and due to a change in the grocery store's suppliers. In fact, I have been seeing more sales recently on items I would purchase anyway which I think has dropped my food costs a bit.

cableshaft 5y ago
Processed/packaged food/goods has another trick where they give you less but it seems like the same amount, and charge you the same, so you don't notice it as much. I bet you a lot of those things you're buying you're actually getting less than you were 1-2 years ago. They reduce the number of toilet roll sheets by 30-40, or the ounces in the package go down 3-4 oz, or they give you 1 less hot dog. Here's a site that tracks the downsizing (I've also seen it called 'Shrinkflation'), and there are a lot of examples on the site. I'm sure you'll find something (probably multiple somethings) you buy on there that got downsized in the last year or two. https://www.mouseprint.org/category/downsiz/ https://www.mouseprint.org/category/downsiz/ The top one on there shows they reduced Dorito's bags from 9 3/4 oz to 9 1/4 oz....sneaky sneaky!

ellipsisfrog 5y ago

You are being downvoted but this is also my experience. My grocery bill is up more than 15% like for like (I shop exclusively online so it's easy to track) and more than that in total because of volume increases. My utility rates are up >10%. Housing costs are way up where I live. I would guess my overall baseline cost of living is up at least 10% when you remove the impact from lower commuting and eating out costs.

dewlinedew2 5y ago
Watch out for downsizing of the containers too
- novalis78 5y ago
  Precisely. There is manipulation across the board. Some of the packaging is getting really ridiculous. The argument that higher inflation would indicate that the economy has been contracting could be phrased differently: What if the "great slowdown" as per Peter Thiel is one in value, lack in progress, cheaper quality products, shaving off everywhere to retain a facade, pushing out real world goals and targets to future decades etc. This does not mean there won't be any progress or some obvious deflation (electronics, biotech). It's still an important discussion to be had (the effect of found monetary standards on the economy/technological progress. http://wtf1971.com/ http://wtf1971.com/ and The Bitcoin Standard obviously have a different perspective on these reported inflation numbers.

fumar 5y ago

No idea why this is downvoted. Our groceries and staple household items have increased at least 10% over the last year.