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What are the geopolitical consequence of a de-coupled chip supply chain? Recall TSMC is headquartered in Taiwan, which has been a point of contention in US-Chin

What are the geopolitical consequence of a de-coupled chip supply chain? Recall TSMC is headquartered in Taiwan, which has been a point of contention in US-China relationship since the 1950s. Please discuss civilly.

paxys 5y ago
Same reason Foxconn is a proponent for manufacturing in America. If the shift is happening and you can't control it, may as well hedge by being part of it.
csharptwdec19 5y ago
Interesting to think about. On one hand, this could cause other countries to pay more attention to the situation, since -they- will still be dependent on TSMC and may not have the US doing all the posturing. But that's assuming we wound up truly 'de-coupled'. TSMC tends to be the leader in fab tech, and I am fairly certain any near term plans will involve providing incentive for TSMC to build more fabs in the US.
8note 5y ago
I think the main question is how much of the US support for Taiwan comes from the chip supply chain, vs ensuring that china needs american permission to trade
bob1029 5y ago
In game theoretic terms - If you feel like the only leverage you have over your opponent is about to be obviated by some other approach (i.e. domestic chip fabrication becomes dominant within the decade), then there could be some increase in tensions. My implication here being that China is aware that they are capable of making an unstoppable strike against all TSMC's leading edge fabrication capacity, and that this action would be far more harmful to the strategic positioning of the US than to any other nation on earth. The ability to execute this option is time-limited by the US wishing to grow domestic capacity. Whether this implication holds in reality is something I am very much open to suggestion on. I am fully aware that the US military's response to such an action is probably the leading reason it is not something we have seen occur already. I am also unsure if the impact of all 7nm node loss is substantially greater for the US vs any other country.

paxys 5y ago

Same reason Foxconn is a proponent for manufacturing in America. If the shift is happening and you can't control it, may as well hedge by being part of it.

csharptwdec19 5y ago

Interesting to think about. On one hand, this could cause other countries to pay more attention to the situation, since -they- will still be dependent on TSMC and may not have the US doing all the posturing. But that's assuming we wound up truly 'de-coupled'. TSMC tends to be the leader in fab tech, and I am fairly certain any near term plans will involve providing incentive for TSMC to build more fabs in the US.

8note 5y ago

I think the main question is how much of the US support for Taiwan comes from the chip supply chain, vs ensuring that china needs american permission to trade

bob1029 5y ago

In game theoretic terms - If you feel like the only leverage you have over your opponent is about to be obviated by some other approach (i.e. domestic chip fabrication becomes dominant within the decade), then there could be some increase in tensions. My implication here being that China is aware that they are capable of making an unstoppable strike against all TSMC's leading edge fabrication capacity, and that this action would be far more harmful to the strategic positioning of the US than to any other nation on earth. The ability to execute this option is time-limited by the US wishing to grow domestic capacity. Whether this implication holds in reality is something I am very much open to suggestion on. I am fully aware that the US military's response to such an action is probably the leading reason it is not something we have seen occur already. I am also unsure if the impact of all 7nm node loss is substantially greater for the US vs any other country.