4 ms·

This is more of an assumption about why people aren't returning tot work. Reality is a lot more complicated: kids can't go to school; low paying jobs are even

This is more of an assumption about why people aren't returning tot work. Reality is a lot more complicated: kids can't go to school; low paying jobs are even more shitty now than before; people are still refusing to wear masks and some get violent if you ask them to; employers are doing the minimum necessary to meet code; etc. So this isn't exactly an ideal test environment. Since some states are cutting back benefits, we get to see a live experiment. If employment numbers go up in these states, then that might be a correct assumption. But there's a real chance that employment remains low. Labor shortages were an issue before the pandemic. Society just cheered because we called it "low unemployment."

wavefunction 6y ago
I posted this below but the facts available actually discredit this narrative that enhanced benefits are causing people to sit out labor market participation. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/people-receiving-unemployment-benefits-are-more-likely-to-look-for-jobs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/people-receiving-unemploymen...
- ghufran_syed 6y ago
  I have personally spoken with 3 business owners who have work, would like to hire back their old workers, but those workers won’t come back because they would lose money by working. Regarding the study you quoted, the authors note: “ One should be cautious with a causal interpretation, however, because we also find evidence that those collecting UI benefits may differ from those who do not collect benefits along unobservable dimensions. Specifically, those who receive UI benefits tend to have had higher-paying jobs than those who never apply for benefits, suggesting that they may be higher-skilled workers, on average.” [Edit - my concern with UBI is that if a majority can continually vote for a rise in the UBI, by increasingly taxing a rich minority, eventually those tax levels will get to the point where less is produced. Even if people choose not to work if it pays more than working (my belief based on limited local experience - I certainly wouldn’t go to work if it paid less than staying at home!), it’s not relevant to UBI which is unchanged whether you work or not]
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - ajford 6y ago
    That sounds to me like the business owners are failing to pay competitively. If the unemployment benefits are higher than their wages, it's the wages that are the problem. Also, have you spoken to the ex-employees directly? How do you know they haven't moved on to better paying jobs and that's why they're not returning? I've personally spoken to a regional manager for a chain that owns a number of small restaurants, and they recently faced a similar issue when the brass decided they would move all the drivers to wait-staff pay. They lost EVERY driver on staff when they saw their first check. They could make more money moving to Uber or competitors. Pay competitively, or the market solves the problem for you. Yeah, there's gonna be the bad apple in the mix that would subsist on Unemployment benefits or UBI, but that minority isn't an argument why UBI is bad. I don't believe in the argument around the concern that UBI can be raised so high by taxing the rich that it tips the scale. When 1% of the population controls such a high majority of the economy, at what point do you say that they're the problem, not the people on UBI?
  - wavefunction 5y ago
    thanks for your anecdotes
- dominotw 6y ago
  > But new research from the Chicago Federal Reserve throws cold water on that argument. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2020/441 https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2... > June 2020 > using data from 2013 through 2019 "new research" ok. > facts ?

wavefunction 6y ago

I posted this below but the facts available actually discredit this narrative that enhanced benefits are causing people to sit out labor market participation. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/people-receiving-unemployment-benefits-are-more-likely-to-look-for-jobs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/people-receiving-unemploymen...

ghufran_syed 6y ago
I have personally spoken with 3 business owners who have work, would like to hire back their old workers, but those workers won’t come back because they would lose money by working. Regarding the study you quoted, the authors note: “ One should be cautious with a causal interpretation, however, because we also find evidence that those collecting UI benefits may differ from those who do not collect benefits along unobservable dimensions. Specifically, those who receive UI benefits tend to have had higher-paying jobs than those who never apply for benefits, suggesting that they may be higher-skilled workers, on average.” [Edit - my concern with UBI is that if a majority can continually vote for a rise in the UBI, by increasingly taxing a rich minority, eventually those tax levels will get to the point where less is produced. Even if people choose not to work if it pays more than working (my belief based on limited local experience - I certainly wouldn’t go to work if it paid less than staying at home!), it’s not relevant to UBI which is unchanged whether you work or not]
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- ajford 6y ago
  That sounds to me like the business owners are failing to pay competitively. If the unemployment benefits are higher than their wages, it's the wages that are the problem. Also, have you spoken to the ex-employees directly? How do you know they haven't moved on to better paying jobs and that's why they're not returning? I've personally spoken to a regional manager for a chain that owns a number of small restaurants, and they recently faced a similar issue when the brass decided they would move all the drivers to wait-staff pay. They lost EVERY driver on staff when they saw their first check. They could make more money moving to Uber or competitors. Pay competitively, or the market solves the problem for you. Yeah, there's gonna be the bad apple in the mix that would subsist on Unemployment benefits or UBI, but that minority isn't an argument why UBI is bad. I don't believe in the argument around the concern that UBI can be raised so high by taxing the rich that it tips the scale. When 1% of the population controls such a high majority of the economy, at what point do you say that they're the problem, not the people on UBI?
- wavefunction 5y ago
  thanks for your anecdotes
dominotw 6y ago
> But new research from the Chicago Federal Reserve throws cold water on that argument. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2020/441 https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2... > June 2020 > using data from 2013 through 2019 "new research" ok. > facts ?