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"That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission t
by JPKab 5y ago
"That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me. The rare outdoor transmission that has happened almost all seems to have involved crowded places or close conversation."
I'm extremely grateful that the NYT is calling this out. However, they are far too late, and frankly, played a role in misinforming the public on the pandemic.
The audience on HN is pretty strongly aware of the extreme misinformation on COVID pushed out by right-wing news organizations, but doesn't SEEM to be aware of the extreme misinformation that was pushed out by the left-wing news outlets, which successfully skewed the US public's perception of COVID risk.
The partisan divide on THIS specific topic shows that American's on both sides of the political divide grossly overestimate the likelihood of hospitalization from COVID, but that those who consume left-wing media are an order of magnitude more incorrect.
Here's a good breakdown, containing links to the source polling data on the topic.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-misinformation-is-distorting-covid-policies-and-behaviors/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-misinformation-is-dis...
I wasn't quite aware of how misinformed highly educated colleagues were until I contracted COVID in mid-February. My wife and I couldn't understand why people were acting like I was in so much danger, until we realized that people were grossly overestimating, by massive factors, the danger I was in. I'm a physically fit, active male in my late 30's. But people on my team acted very surprised that I didn't miss any work, and only had a loss of sense of smell as a symptom. They were acting as if I was somewhat of an outlier, instead of being the absolute norm for my age group/health status.
The implications of this fear-mongering results in me being treated like a leper for not wearing a mask on hiking trails in wide open, wind-blown, and sunny open spaces.
It's been a big reminder to me, that no, people on the left aren't actually less prone to misinformation, despite my preconceived notions and biases. Quantitative illiteracy in the majority of the American public has had horrific effects in this pandemic.
- spfzero 5y agoI think more than a left-right thing, this is a different axis. Some people are just more fearful in general. I've been surprised by friends of my same political persuasion that have acted in ways I would honestly need to call, not-quite-sane. Such as deciding now to keep their child out of school for the entire 21-22 school year, or leaving deliveries on their porch for 3 days before bringing it inside. These are smart people in many ways, but somehow their brains were hijacked. Talking to them about the actual risks triggers an emotional response. Even relating the risk level to something they do every day like driving seems to have no effect. These are people who are educated and consume news from respectable sources.
- whipaway 5y agoThis is an intersection of so many things: politics (outsourcing your judgment to your enemy and effectively just doing the opposite of them), brain-structure propensity for fear, esteem for authorities and experts (fundamentally the tendency towards authoritarianism, whether it's based in expertise or other things), class tendencies that value visible signals of virtue, intelligence and taste, etc.
- JPKab 5y agoExtremely well stated and reasoned.
- JPKab 5y agoMy brother's wife is one of these folks you talk about, with the "keeping kids out of school" and "leaving deliveries on porch for 3 days". Very well said! What I'm very curious about is what makes me perceive risk so much differently than these others. I'm wondering if it's conditioning (I spent a big chunk of my life building houses, and therefore climbing on extension ladders and walking on roof trusses was a daily ritual), childhood (I was in unstable environments a lot), or just brain wiring from birth. A respondent on your comment mentioned a willingness to "outsource judgement to news sources" and even better "outsourcing judgement to political rivals and adopting the opposite viewpoint by default". This is a phenomenon that I anecdotally notice is intensified with educated elites. My brother's wife went to Cornell, never struck me as particularly creative or novel, but just has a great work ethic and follows what books tell her to do. She's a born rule follower, and follows conventional wisdom to the point where it borders on comical and often, defying common sense.
- korethr 5y ago> What I'm very curious about is what makes me perceive risk so much differently than these others. I'm wondering if it's conditioning (I spent a big chunk of my life building houses, and therefore climbing on extension ladders and walking on roof trusses was a daily ritual), childhood (I was in unstable environments a lot), or just brain wiring from birth. I'm guessing conditioning is a big part of it. I'd wager the majority or people with more hysterical reactions have lived fairly comfortable lives, without having to face much in the way of dangerous risks. And without that, they also fail to also learn that risks and dangers can be controlled and mitigated. Or that even mild preparedness can mean the difference between recoverable injury and death. So absent this personal experience of a counterpoint to the hysteria on the news, they're more likely to accept prognostications of certain horrible doom uncritically.