5 ms·

x86-64 isn't going anywhere. Not in the next decade or two anyway.

danielheath 5y ago
I don't know about "gone", but "reduced to legacy support roles within 10 years" seems like a pretty uncontroversial statement.
- fogihujy 5y ago
  I'd be surprised if that turned out to be true, but I truly hope that I'm wrong and you're right. :D
  - danielheath 5y ago
    The story so far: ARM chips last longer on battery, and every high volume laptop manufacturer had an ARM model. Every smartphone is already arm. ARM already has mainline support from every major OS vendor. Every videogame engine builds for ARM targets. In AWS, Graviton2 instances are 40% cheaper for cpu bound workloads vs x86. Next time our reserved instances expire we will switch.
    - fogihujy 5y ago
      Meanwhile, people are clinging to decade-old Thinkpads like they were made of gold. Most laptops and pretty much all desktops are x86-64, as are both major home consoles. Sure, ARM is dominant on mobile, and it's definitely going to grab a share of the laptop market now that Apple is going that route. Eventually we might also see ARM based desktop computers again, but having them grab the majority of sales will take time. I'm sure it'll happen - just not within a decade.
seniorivn 5y ago
if for some reason x86-64 will become incompatible with novel highly advantageous architectural decisions of competitors, AMD and Intel will ditch it, and make cpus with different/new architectures
- klelatti 5y ago
  Certainly for Intel I think that it's unlikely that they will switch and maintain anything like their market position in CPUs. - There is too much attachment to x86 and too much pain associated with historical attempts to move to other architectures - obviously Itanium being the most recent. - Moving from x86 means losing the architecture duopoly. - By the time x86 is clearly failing in the market competitors will have gained a major foothold in the market. - The lead in time to switch is too long to reverse the pattern of decline. I strongly suspect that it's already too late given the pattern we're seeing with M1 and AWS and Graviton.
bruce343434 5y ago
Source: trust me bro

I don't know about "gone", but "reduced to legacy support roles within 10 years" seems like a pretty uncontroversial statement.

fogihujy 5y ago
I'd be surprised if that turned out to be true, but I truly hope that I'm wrong and you're right. :D
- danielheath 5y ago
  The story so far: ARM chips last longer on battery, and every high volume laptop manufacturer had an ARM model. Every smartphone is already arm. ARM already has mainline support from every major OS vendor. Every videogame engine builds for ARM targets. In AWS, Graviton2 instances are 40% cheaper for cpu bound workloads vs x86. Next time our reserved instances expire we will switch.
  - fogihujy 5y ago
    Meanwhile, people are clinging to decade-old Thinkpads like they were made of gold. Most laptops and pretty much all desktops are x86-64, as are both major home consoles. Sure, ARM is dominant on mobile, and it's definitely going to grab a share of the laptop market now that Apple is going that route. Eventually we might also see ARM based desktop computers again, but having them grab the majority of sales will take time. I'm sure it'll happen - just not within a decade.

seniorivn 5y ago

if for some reason x86-64 will become incompatible with novel highly advantageous architectural decisions of competitors, AMD and Intel will ditch it, and make cpus with different/new architectures

klelatti 5y ago
Certainly for Intel I think that it's unlikely that they will switch and maintain anything like their market position in CPUs. - There is too much attachment to x86 and too much pain associated with historical attempts to move to other architectures - obviously Itanium being the most recent. - Moving from x86 means losing the architecture duopoly. - By the time x86 is clearly failing in the market competitors will have gained a major foothold in the market. - The lead in time to switch is too long to reverse the pattern of decline. I strongly suspect that it's already too late given the pattern we're seeing with M1 and AWS and Graviton.

bruce343434 5y ago

Source: trust me bro