4 ms·

I am not an astrophysicist, but I don't see any reason to doubt the study's conclusions. But isn't the more pressing question the probability of such a CME hitt

I am not an astrophysicist, but I don't see any reason to doubt the study's conclusions. But isn't the more pressing question the probability of such a CME hitting the Earth? The sun is not small, and CMEs could be ejected away from it in any direction, I would think relatively few of them hit any of the planets?

sci_prog 5y ago
Kurzgesagt has a nice and objective summary on the topic. If I remember correctly, 50% chance of a big one hitting us over the next 50 years (or by 2050, can't remember exactly): https://youtu.be/oHHSSJDJ4oo https://youtu.be/oHHSSJDJ4oo
- medstrom 5y ago
  If it happens at night, you'll get a great lightshow to start off the apocalypse. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_event >Auroras were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. were so bright that the glow woke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[8] People in the northeastern United States could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[15] The aurora was visible from the poles to low latitude areas such as south-central Mexico,[16][17] Queensland, Cuba, Hawaii,[18] southern Japan and China,[19] and even at lower latitudes very close to the equator, such as in Colombia.
bananabreakfast 5y ago
CMEs are not actually emitted uniformly over the whole spherical surface of the sun. Instead it's much closer to a Gaussian distribution centered on the ecliptic.
- medstrom 5y ago
  For anyone not in the know, the ecliptic is the plane of the Earth's and most planets' orbit.
  - philjohn 5y ago
    Is there any reason for that - gravitational forces from the planets perhaps?
    - monkeybutton 5y ago
      Perhaps due to the sun's rotation?
    - penteract 5y ago
      I'd guess that it's related to the sun's rotation - the sun's equator roughly lies on the ecliptic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_rotation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_rotation
    - jointpdf 5y ago
      I believe it is the fact that the solar system was once a spinning ball of gas and dust, and the spinning motion caused the cloud to flatten out into the protoplanetary disk. Like flattening a ball of pizza dough by spinning it in the air. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protoplanetary_disk https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protoplanetary_disk https://www.vanderbilt.edu/AnS/physics/astrocourses/ast201/origin_ss.html https://www.vanderbilt.edu/AnS/physics/astrocourses/ast201/o...
    - triclops200 5y ago
      When the solar system formed, the gas cloud collapsed along the shortest axis first into a spinning disc and then formed the planets and sun. This naturally aligns the largest bodies in most systems along the astral axis.

sci_prog 5y ago

Kurzgesagt has a nice and objective summary on the topic. If I remember correctly, 50% chance of a big one hitting us over the next 50 years (or by 2050, can't remember exactly): https://youtu.be/oHHSSJDJ4oo https://youtu.be/oHHSSJDJ4oo

medstrom 5y ago
If it happens at night, you'll get a great lightshow to start off the apocalypse. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_event >Auroras were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. were so bright that the glow woke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[8] People in the northeastern United States could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[15] The aurora was visible from the poles to low latitude areas such as south-central Mexico,[16][17] Queensland, Cuba, Hawaii,[18] southern Japan and China,[19] and even at lower latitudes very close to the equator, such as in Colombia.

bananabreakfast 5y ago

CMEs are not actually emitted uniformly over the whole spherical surface of the sun. Instead it's much closer to a Gaussian distribution centered on the ecliptic.

medstrom 5y ago
For anyone not in the know, the ecliptic is the plane of the Earth's and most planets' orbit.
- philjohn 5y ago
  Is there any reason for that - gravitational forces from the planets perhaps?
  - monkeybutton 5y ago
    Perhaps due to the sun's rotation?
  - penteract 5y ago
    I'd guess that it's related to the sun's rotation - the sun's equator roughly lies on the ecliptic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_rotation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_rotation
  - jointpdf 5y ago
    I believe it is the fact that the solar system was once a spinning ball of gas and dust, and the spinning motion caused the cloud to flatten out into the protoplanetary disk. Like flattening a ball of pizza dough by spinning it in the air. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protoplanetary_disk https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protoplanetary_disk https://www.vanderbilt.edu/AnS/physics/astrocourses/ast201/origin_ss.html https://www.vanderbilt.edu/AnS/physics/astrocourses/ast201/o...
  - triclops200 5y ago
    When the solar system formed, the gas cloud collapsed along the shortest axis first into a spinning disc and then formed the planets and sun. This naturally aligns the largest bodies in most systems along the astral axis.