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no, the midrange shot is exactly the shot that propels teams to championships, as the rockets of the past 5 years learned the hard way, so much so that d'antoni
by clairity 5y ago
no, the midrange shot is exactly the shot that propels teams to championships, as the rockets of the past 5 years learned the hard way, so much so that d'antoni was demoted and harden moved on to a superteam with great midrange shooters (durant & irving). and as great as curry's shot is, the warriors are unlikely to make the playoffs this year. the midrange plays a specific strategic role, and teams pull it out especially for the playoffs.
the playoffs are all about effective shot selection, with the midrange becoming prominent because defenses tighten up arond the perimeter and the basket. lebron and anthony davis both explicitly featured their midrange game in last year's championship run. the clippers, incidentally, have the best midrange shooter (kawhi) and lost early last year because they relied too much on the 3-pointer. even the warriors of old used the midrange shot to keep defenses guessing enough to give their shooters space to shoot.
and that's exactly the issue with relying too heavily on analytics--humans aren't static, and pinning down the exact parameters where a model is valid is seductively elusive. mathematical models don't so much tell us about how the world is, but rather more about how the modeler sees the world. models aren't useless but they are limited (really knowing how is the hard part).
- hervature 5y agoI think the causation here is kind of backwards. Those teams are good because they have the best players that shoot well in any range. But looking at Kawhi’s shot chart [1] indicates he should be shooting more 3’s as defenses still keep him to below 1 point expected per mid range shoot vs. more than 1 point in 3 range. [1] - https://nbasavant.com/player.php?ddlYear=&ddlShotMade=&ddlTeamDefense=&player_id=202695 https://nbasavant.com/player.php?ddlYear=&ddlShotMade=&ddlTe...
- clairity 5y agowhat's missing is that those things are correlated. kawhi wouldn't have the 3-point percentages he has without the midrange threat to loosen defenses. and the best players are the only ones trusted with midrange shots (even on lesser teams--derozen & jimmy butler for example). role players are expected to only take 3's or layups. that's the aesthetics today.