4 ms·

> the 3-pointer by itself isn’t point-maximizing Of course, but the reality is that analytics have proven that there are only really two shots worth taking in

> the 3-pointer by itself isn’t point-maximizing Of course, but the reality is that analytics have proven that there are only really two shots worth taking in modern basketball: the 3 pointer and a shot near the rim. For anything in between the expected points for the shot is simply not worth it. Even an uncontested midrange shot is going to have similar or fewer expected points per shot than a contested 3-pointer or shot beneath the rim. And these two kinds of shots are spatially far from each other, so even if the opposing team knows this is your strategy, its still difficult to defend against. Teams and players that have tried to exploit the fact that modern basketball is fairly homogenous by taking relatively less defended midrange shots occasionally find streaks of success, but it hasn't proven sustainable, and certainly not enough to win a championship. Basketball would probably benefit from either eliminating the 3 point shot, or, perhaps preferably, pushing the line back a few feet to even it out in terms of point expectations with midrange shots. Shots under the rim will still remain the most reliable point source, but teams won't have to divide as much attention on getting steam-rolled by three pointers. It will bring back scoring big men like a prime Shaq who have mostly disappeared from the game, still allow phenoms like Steph Curry to thrive (fewer players can match his ability to hit 3-pointers from further distance), and will make the midrange focused strategies more viable again.

dynamite-ready 5y ago
A lot of teams still get their points inside the perimeter. Look at Zion Williamson for example. Injured now, but most of the Pelican's points come through him, and it's only going to become more worthwhile to do it, and build a team around the fact that he almost guarantees two points every other possession. The strategic trends always go in and out of fashion. One thing that I see in Basketball that needs fixing though, is that the rules make the defender's job incredibly hard. Especially with the rules around fouls. They need to look into fixing that. I think a solution to that class of issues, will inadvertently fix the 3 pointer issues you cite too.
- bart_spoon 5y ago
  > A lot of teams still get their points inside the perimeter. Look at Zion Williamson for example. Yes, but by "inside the perimeter", you mean up-close to the basket. Zion is a great example. Take a look at his shot chart [0]. He doesn't even think about shooting more than a few feet away from the rim. As I said, at this point, basketball has coalesced around offenses entirely focusing on shots at the rim, or beyond the 3-point line. Anything between there is a wasteland where teams don't even bother shooting anymore, despite Hall of Fame players like Michael Jordan and Karl Malone making those areas of the court a huge part of their game in the 90s. And this doesn't seem like much of a fad. Its a trend that has been becoming increasingly entrenched for nearly 2 decades at this point. The charts on this 538 article are all you need to see why this isn't simply a matter of what's fashionable, and is a simple mathematical reality under the current rules [1]. But I definitely agree with your last point. Basketball has numerous issues currently, of which unequal shot efficiency is only a part. [0] https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/zion-williamson-shot-chart https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/zion-williamson-shot-chart [1] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-mapping-shots-in-the-nba-changed-it-forever/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-mapping-shots-in-th...
clairity 5y ago
no, the midrange shot is exactly the shot that propels teams to championships, as the rockets of the past 5 years learned the hard way, so much so that d'antoni was demoted and harden moved on to a superteam with great midrange shooters (durant & irving). and as great as curry's shot is, the warriors are unlikely to make the playoffs this year. the midrange plays a specific strategic role, and teams pull it out especially for the playoffs. the playoffs are all about effective shot selection, with the midrange becoming prominent because defenses tighten up arond the perimeter and the basket. lebron and anthony davis both explicitly featured their midrange game in last year's championship run. the clippers, incidentally, have the best midrange shooter (kawhi) and lost early last year because they relied too much on the 3-pointer. even the warriors of old used the midrange shot to keep defenses guessing enough to give their shooters space to shoot. and that's exactly the issue with relying too heavily on analytics--humans aren't static, and pinning down the exact parameters where a model is valid is seductively elusive. mathematical models don't so much tell us about how the world is, but rather more about how the modeler sees the world. models aren't useless but they are limited (really knowing how is the hard part).
- hervature 5y ago
  I think the causation here is kind of backwards. Those teams are good because they have the best players that shoot well in any range. But looking at Kawhi’s shot chart [1] indicates he should be shooting more 3’s as defenses still keep him to below 1 point expected per mid range shoot vs. more than 1 point in 3 range. [1] - https://nbasavant.com/player.php?ddlYear=&ddlShotMade=&ddlTeamDefense=&player_id=202695 https://nbasavant.com/player.php?ddlYear=&ddlShotMade=&ddlTe...
  - clairity 5y ago
    what's missing is that those things are correlated. kawhi wouldn't have the 3-point percentages he has without the midrange threat to loosen defenses. and the best players are the only ones trusted with midrange shots (even on lesser teams--derozen & jimmy butler for example). role players are expected to only take 3's or layups. that's the aesthetics today.

dynamite-ready 5y ago

A lot of teams still get their points inside the perimeter. Look at Zion Williamson for example. Injured now, but most of the Pelican's points come through him, and it's only going to become more worthwhile to do it, and build a team around the fact that he almost guarantees two points every other possession. The strategic trends always go in and out of fashion. One thing that I see in Basketball that needs fixing though, is that the rules make the defender's job incredibly hard. Especially with the rules around fouls. They need to look into fixing that. I think a solution to that class of issues, will inadvertently fix the 3 pointer issues you cite too.

bart_spoon 5y ago
> A lot of teams still get their points inside the perimeter. Look at Zion Williamson for example. Yes, but by "inside the perimeter", you mean up-close to the basket. Zion is a great example. Take a look at his shot chart [0]. He doesn't even think about shooting more than a few feet away from the rim. As I said, at this point, basketball has coalesced around offenses entirely focusing on shots at the rim, or beyond the 3-point line. Anything between there is a wasteland where teams don't even bother shooting anymore, despite Hall of Fame players like Michael Jordan and Karl Malone making those areas of the court a huge part of their game in the 90s. And this doesn't seem like much of a fad. Its a trend that has been becoming increasingly entrenched for nearly 2 decades at this point. The charts on this 538 article are all you need to see why this isn't simply a matter of what's fashionable, and is a simple mathematical reality under the current rules [1]. But I definitely agree with your last point. Basketball has numerous issues currently, of which unequal shot efficiency is only a part. [0] https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/zion-williamson-shot-chart https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/zion-williamson-shot-chart [1] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-mapping-shots-in-the-nba-changed-it-forever/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-mapping-shots-in-th...

clairity 5y ago

no, the midrange shot is exactly the shot that propels teams to championships, as the rockets of the past 5 years learned the hard way, so much so that d'antoni was demoted and harden moved on to a superteam with great midrange shooters (durant & irving). and as great as curry's shot is, the warriors are unlikely to make the playoffs this year. the midrange plays a specific strategic role, and teams pull it out especially for the playoffs. the playoffs are all about effective shot selection, with the midrange becoming prominent because defenses tighten up arond the perimeter and the basket. lebron and anthony davis both explicitly featured their midrange game in last year's championship run. the clippers, incidentally, have the best midrange shooter (kawhi) and lost early last year because they relied too much on the 3-pointer. even the warriors of old used the midrange shot to keep defenses guessing enough to give their shooters space to shoot. and that's exactly the issue with relying too heavily on analytics--humans aren't static, and pinning down the exact parameters where a model is valid is seductively elusive. mathematical models don't so much tell us about how the world is, but rather more about how the modeler sees the world. models aren't useless but they are limited (really knowing how is the hard part).

hervature 5y ago
I think the causation here is kind of backwards. Those teams are good because they have the best players that shoot well in any range. But looking at Kawhi’s shot chart [1] indicates he should be shooting more 3’s as defenses still keep him to below 1 point expected per mid range shoot vs. more than 1 point in 3 range. [1] - https://nbasavant.com/player.php?ddlYear=&ddlShotMade=&ddlTeamDefense=&player_id=202695 https://nbasavant.com/player.php?ddlYear=&ddlShotMade=&ddlTe...
- clairity 5y ago
  what's missing is that those things are correlated. kawhi wouldn't have the 3-point percentages he has without the midrange threat to loosen defenses. and the best players are the only ones trusted with midrange shots (even on lesser teams--derozen & jimmy butler for example). role players are expected to only take 3's or layups. that's the aesthetics today.