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I wrote a much more detailed takedown of Groupon's evaluation, in fact. You can find it here: http://shortlogic.com/post/6142108636/groupon-ipo-pass-on-this-dea

by dhh 15y ago

I wrote a much more detailed takedown of Groupon's evaluation, in fact. You can find it here: http://shortlogic.com/post/6142108636/groupon-ipo-pass-on-this-deal http://shortlogic.com/post/6142108636/groupon-ipo-pass-on-th... If this stuff is your flavor, I also wrote one on Pandora: http://shortlogic.com/post/6586713689/pandora-should-be-trading-at-2-share-tops http://shortlogic.com/post/6586713689/pandora-should-be-trad... Enjoy!

gojomo 15y ago
Thanks, I forgot about that. It should be at 37signals! :) I agree with you on Groupon as much as I disagree on Facebook. Groupon has a nice gimmick that's easy to copy and has been fueled by novelty and unsustainable incentives – and in my personal experience, even some outright corporate dishonesty. Facebook has strong lock-in effects and unique targeting capabilities. On any screen in any net cafe worldwide, you're likely to see many people using Facebook. It was worth more then $30B last year when you dismissed that valuation based on a 3% investment, it has a good chance of being worth more than the $70B suggested by multiple small private transactions today.