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So he agrees on the macro level but is trying to spin up some controversy about how we actually can’t accurately forecast every small detail of a complex system

• starkd 5y ago
  He's not the only one. There's been others dialing back the severity. Like Michael Shellenberger and Bjorn Lomborg. The truth is that it's hard to gauge the severity with any accuracy. It's refreshing to hear scientists with the humility to admit it.
• rayiner 5y ago
  He doesn't agree on the macro point, as reported by the media and politicians: > SK: The point is the science, as expressed sometimes obscurely in the consensus reports and in the underlying data and scientific literature. In no way is this a contrarian book in that respect. It is contrarian to the stance that you get from the media and the politicians and business people who have not taken the time to actually look at what’s in the reports. But of course, we will see what the pushback is over the next week as reviews start to come out. I think it’s very hard to contradict what I’ve written. > we actually can’t accurately forecast every small detail of a complex system to sell a book He's not talking about "small details." He's talking about large amounts of uncertainty present in the models as to big picture issues such as how much temperature will increase by the end of the century.