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The industry has largely forgotten how to make stuff without chips. That's why I am telling people that a global chip shortage, if something happens to Taiwan,
by baybal2 6y ago
The industry has largely forgotten how to make stuff without chips.
That's why I am telling people that a global chip shortage, if something happens to Taiwan, would bring the industry not back into fifties, but into the iron age.
The further the tech ladder you go, the harder you fall if somebody takes out your engineering bay.
- noahtallen 6y agoI don’t think that would happen. Firstly, the US government and army (like it or not) has an interest in not falling behind technologically. Additionally, Intel has most of its fabs in the US already. Samsung and TSMC are currently building fabs in the US too. Finally, the US still has a strong tech culture. So I think it would not take long with an increased demand (and higher salaries) for computer engineers to attract a lot of good talent. I mean, I agree it wouldn’t be good. But back to the 50s? Or even the “Iron Age”? That seems awfully pessimistic. Like, I get that Intel is not doing great, but it’s only like a handful of years bad, not decades bad
- baybal2 6y agoNo Intel fab will run more than a few weeks without consumables coming from Asia. A giant lot of semi supplies are single vendor globally, and much of them are in Taiwan. It's likely that no fab in the West past the I-line era will be able to resume, and continue production with local supplies, even with immediate nation-state level effort to recreate the supply chain.
- shrimpx 6y ago> if something happens to Taiwan TSMC is building a megafactory in Phoenix AZ which should help distribute that risk. It will take several years to complete however.
- rajacombinator 6y agoWhat could happen to Taiwan? I’m interested.
- CRConrad 6y agoInvasion by the PRC seems the most plausible threat. So obvious, in fact, that I'm wondering why you ask.
- rajacombinator 6y agoBecause everything I’ve read indicates that scenario is not in fact plausible. I’m wondering what the more likely but potentially equivalent alternatives are.
- baybal2 6y agoYou need to understand, China does not want to reclaim Taiwan for any kind real political goal. Nobody in Beijing really cares for an armed to the teeth mountainous island. A threat of Taiwan invasion is not a threat they project to Taiwan itself, but to the world. - "Do this, and that or we are sending the world, and all your business interests back to iron age" That pretty much sums it. For this purpose, even just a missile exchange across the straight will suffice to kill world trade in a way you haven't seen even during CoVID.
- rajacombinator 6y agoHard for me to see what the profit in that is, and China seems to like profits.