> In Joseph Bertrand’s box paradox (1889), three boxes are presented -- one containing two gold coins, one containing two silver coins, and the final containing

> In Joseph Bertrand’s box paradox (1889), three boxes are presented -- one containing two gold coins, one containing two silver coins, and the final containing one of each. Assuming the participant draws one gold coin from a box, the problem then asks what the probability is that the other coin in that box is gold. Bertrand, who concluded that the probability was ⅔, was lauded for his ability to look beyond the obvious. The initial distribution is: [gold, gold] [gold, silver] [silver, silver] With six possibilities for drawing a coin: 1. [----, gold] [gold, silver] [silver, silver] 2. [gold, ----] [gold, silver] [silver, silver] 3. [gold, gold] [----, silver] [silver, silver] 4. [gold, gold] [gold, ------] [silver, silver] 5. [gold, gold] [gold, silver] [------, silver] 6. [gold, gold] [gold, silver] [silver, ------] After drawing gold, you are left with: 1. [----, gold] [gold, silver] [silver, silver] 2. [gold, ----] [gold, silver] [silver, silver] 3. [gold, gold] [----, silver] [silver, silver] In 2/3 of the scenarios, you drew from box 1 and the remaining coin is gold. In 1/3 of the scenarios, you drew from box 2 and the remaining coin is silver.