5 ms·

It is, at heart, a ponzi scheme.

by nmz 5y ago

betwixthewires 5y ago
Well, not a ponzi scheme, but a type of scheme akin to a pyramid scheme, yes. The last one holding bitcoin when the sun burns out is going to be broke. Or whenever it happens. But this situation is no different from any fiat currency, or even commodity backed currency if the commodity has no utilitarian value. Here is a fact: eventually the US dollar is going to become worthless and everyone left holding dollars is going to be broke. The game with anything like this is kicking the can down the road. Anything that is valuable solely because someone else wants it is going to be worthless eventually. That doesn't mean that in the meantime it has no utility.
- lottin 5y ago
  The situation is fundamentally different compared to fiat currencies. A moderate rate of inflation like we have in advanced economies means that all nominal prices adjust gradually upwards, and this includes salaries. Therefore, for most people, their purchasing power is largely unaffected.
  - betwixthewires 5y ago
    Thats not a fundamental difference with regard to whether this is a pyramid scheme (or a ponzi scheme) or not. The US dollar will be valueless one day. Maybe that day is when the sun burns out. Maybe that day is next week. Regardless, someone is left holding the bag. This is the definition of either of these schemes. Cryptocurrencies are no different from fiat currencies in this regard, though they may be different in terms of technical details, like emission schedule.
    - lottin 5y ago
      All investments will be worthless at some point in the future, but that's not what a pyramid scheme is. A pyramid scheme is an investment scheme where the revenue streams come from the investors themselves.
      - betwixthewires 5y ago
        Yeah, but isn't that how the dollar works? Or any asset who's valuation is based on demand? We may not give money for dollars, we give work and production for it, but that's what real value is.
        lottin 5y ago
        The return on an asset is the selling price plus any income received during the holding period minus the purchase price. A dollar provides no income and its selling and purchase price are the same in nominal terms, which means it provides a return of zero in nominal terms. In real terms, the return is minus the inflation rate, which usually is a negative number. So clearly the dollar doesn't rely on revenues from current investors to provide a return to earlier investors... because it provides no such return. Therefore I don't see how it might qualify as a pyramid scheme.
        lowkey 5y ago
        You are forgetting that the FED can and has printed enormous sums of dollars for example over the last 18 months. This dilutes the real-world purchasing power of the dollar leading to increased inflation in scarce assets such as real estate, equities, and some cryptocurrencies. Wages are rising at the advertised inflation rate or a little better while all the scarce assets you would need to obtain healthcare, higher education, housing or retirement are all increasing at a rate that puts wage earners further and further behind.
        lottin 5y ago
        This is a series of made up facts. Real wages have increased over the last 10 years in the US [1] despite the fact that the money supply has increased substantially over the same period. [1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/50-years-of-us-wages-in-one-chart/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/50-years-of-us-wages-...
        5y ago

It is, at heart, a ponzi scheme.

by nmz 5y ago

It is, at heart, a ponzi scheme.

Well, not a ponzi scheme, but a type of scheme akin to a pyramid scheme, yes. The last one holding bitcoin when the sun burns out is going to be broke. Or whenever it happens. But this situation is no different from any fiat currency, or even commodity backed currency if the commodity has no utilitarian value. Here is a fact: eventually the US dollar is going to become worthless and everyone left holding dollars is going to be broke. The game with anything like this is kicking the can down the road. Anything that is valuable solely because someone else wants it is going to be worthless eventually. That doesn't mean that in the meantime it has no utility.

lottin 5y ago
The situation is fundamentally different compared to fiat currencies. A moderate rate of inflation like we have in advanced economies means that all nominal prices adjust gradually upwards, and this includes salaries. Therefore, for most people, their purchasing power is largely unaffected.
- betwixthewires 5y ago
  Thats not a fundamental difference with regard to whether this is a pyramid scheme (or a ponzi scheme) or not. The US dollar will be valueless one day. Maybe that day is when the sun burns out. Maybe that day is next week. Regardless, someone is left holding the bag. This is the definition of either of these schemes. Cryptocurrencies are no different from fiat currencies in this regard, though they may be different in terms of technical details, like emission schedule.
  - lottin 5y ago
    All investments will be worthless at some point in the future, but that's not what a pyramid scheme is. A pyramid scheme is an investment scheme where the revenue streams come from the investors themselves.
    - betwixthewires 5y ago
      Yeah, but isn't that how the dollar works? Or any asset who's valuation is based on demand? We may not give money for dollars, we give work and production for it, but that's what real value is.
      - lottin 5y ago
        The return on an asset is the selling price plus any income received during the holding period minus the purchase price. A dollar provides no income and its selling and purchase price are the same in nominal terms, which means it provides a return of zero in nominal terms. In real terms, the return is minus the inflation rate, which usually is a negative number. So clearly the dollar doesn't rely on revenues from current investors to provide a return to earlier investors... because it provides no such return. Therefore I don't see how it might qualify as a pyramid scheme.
        lowkey 5y ago
        You are forgetting that the FED can and has printed enormous sums of dollars for example over the last 18 months. This dilutes the real-world purchasing power of the dollar leading to increased inflation in scarce assets such as real estate, equities, and some cryptocurrencies. Wages are rising at the advertised inflation rate or a little better while all the scarce assets you would need to obtain healthcare, higher education, housing or retirement are all increasing at a rate that puts wage earners further and further behind.
        lottin 5y ago
        This is a series of made up facts. Real wages have increased over the last 10 years in the US [1] despite the fact that the money supply has increased substantially over the same period. [1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/50-years-of-us-wages-in-one-chart/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/50-years-of-us-wages-...
        5y ago