3 ms·
That he always opens a door that is not the contestant's choice is a necessary implication of saying that he opens "another" door. That he opens a door containi
by wahern 6y ago
That he always opens a door that is not the contestant's choice is a necessary implication of saying that he opens "another" door. That he opens a door containing a goat is similarly implicated. It's not even an implication, really; it's just definitional in vernacular English. And in any event, any of the academics writing in would have been perfectly familiar with the semantic structure of such logic puzzles.
Also, most of the population of the country would have been familiar with the game show. Let's Make a Deal was one of the most popular programs on television. Even if they didn't particularly like it, people didn't have much of a TV program selection back then. And even if someone didn't regularly watch TV, it's likely they would have seen it and been familiar w/ the rules regardless simply because it was so widely watched around them. The vehemence of the respondents may even have been an effect of their familiarity, unable to recognize and accept that they'd missed a crucial analytical element after having watched the show so many times before.
What makes the puzzle counterintuitive, IMO, is that you're actually answering two different questions: the first before the host makes his selection, and the second (the only one that matters) after he makes his selection. Developing the habit of rigorously "updating your priors"--that is, recognizing when the available evidence has changed, requiring a reassessment--is an applied skill that even experts aren't particularly good at. (Nor was I the first time I read the problem.) The real-life narrative structure actually makes for a great logic puzzle as people are primed to miss the final constraint (his selection) for what it is. They're used to analyzing static situations, or a series of linked static situations--solve X correctly to solve Y. That makes the Monty Hall Problem peculiarly distinct from the typical type of logic puzzle that simply includes a misleading, irrelevant constraint or requires resolving a complex set of constraints.
- listenallyall 6y ago> That he always opens a door that is not the contestant's choice is a necessary implication of saying that he opens "another" door It really isn't. It's possible Monte Hall always opens the doors in reverse numerical order, so if you picked Door #3, that would get opened first. Or that if Door #3 contained the car, that would be revealed before any goats. The way the scenario was initially described by Ms. Vos Savant is not clear about that. And no, not everybody knew Let's Make a Deal in great detail. It's always been a daytime tv show, meaning, it airs while most people are at work.
- CRConrad 5y ago> > That he always opens a door that is not the contestant's choice is a necessary implication of saying that he opens "another" door > It really isn't. It's possible Monte Hall always opens the doors in... It really is. The "other" in "another" means, quite literally, "not the one already mentioned". And since the only door mentioned before that was the one the contestant had chosen, "he then opens another" not only implies but quite literally and explicitly says that this "another" door the host opens absolutely isn't, cannot be, the one the contestant chose. That's quite simply what "another" literally means.