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I find it a little more intuitive in a visual way with the 100 doors. If the 98 doors that the host subsequently eliminates leaves one in the middle of the pack
by defterGoose 5y ago
I find it a little more intuitive in a visual way with the 100 doors. If the 98 doors that the host subsequently eliminates leaves one in the middle of the pack (e.g. #52), most rational people would look at that door and say "hmm its probably in there rather than in the one i picked, #1"
- thaumasiotes 5y agoEh, the formulation I like goes: You pick a door. The host runs up and knocks on one of the other doors, without opening it or saying anything. He just indicates a door. Now you have the option to stick with your one original door, or to take both of the other two doors. Which is better? And then: how is that scenario different from the one where he opens the special door and reveals a goat?
- listenallyall 5y agoExcept how many people, when presented with option of picking one of a hundred doors, picks Door #1? Further, the problem with the 100-door (or 1000, or million, etc) rationalization is that it did not appear in the initial Parade Magazine article which generated all the negative responses. Sure, today you know the secret and can explain the problem well, but it isn't fair to judge the people whose only exposure to the issue was the first, original Parade Magazine article.