For a counterpoint to the confidence, but still a very high-confidence prediction, Aubrey de Grey has recently estimated a 50% chance that we'll hit longevity e

For a counterpoint to the confidence, but still a very high-confidence prediction, Aubrey de Grey has recently estimated a 50% chance that we'll hit longevity escape velocity by 2036. That is, enough treatments will be available to people such that they can expect their lifespans to be Y, an increase from their previous X. But before they hit Y age, there'll be new treatments developed they can take that extend expected life age even further to Z, and so on, until we arrive at general treatments that extend life indefinitely. Aubrey is the foremost expert in the whole field of longevity research as far as I'm concerned, so I don't have any reason to be more or less confident than him about any aspect of it. If you haven't read it, his Ending Aging book covers a lot of details. It was published in 2007 but has still held up, especially with overall strategy. Apart from the various medical developments since then, another encouraging sign is the increase in newly formed companies in the space, lowering the need for philanthropy/government grants. https://agingbiotech.info/ https://agingbiotech.info/ has a list