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I'm going to disagree with your framing here. Probabilities DO change as more information becomes available. For example, prior to rolling a pair of dice, you h
by listenallyall 6y ago
I'm going to disagree with your framing here. Probabilities DO change as more information becomes available. For example, prior to rolling a pair of dice, you have a 1/36 chance of rolling a 12. However as sooner as you see the value of the first die, the probability changes to either 0 (most likely) or 1/6. In your description, if Monte opens a door randomly -- which you don't make clear whether he does or doesn't -- then the presence of the goat DOES change your P(winning a car).
- atdrummond 6y agoHe never chooses randomly in the Monte Hall problem. He’s always going to reveal a goat. That’s why the maths are so straightforward - and yet so counterintuitive.
- listenallyall 6y ago> He never chooses randomly in the Monte Hall problem. But you never state that, which is why I took exception with your explanation. You also state that probabilities never change, which is also untrue as more information is revealed.
- atdrummond 5y agoNo. All I said is that the probability of the first door winning doesn't change. Which is true - it remains 1/3. The change in probabilities impact the other two doors, whose terminal values I listed (0 and 2/3).