I find that the phrasing of the Monty Hall problem makes the solution less certain than stated. > "You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behi

I find that the phrasing of the Monty Hall problem makes the solution less certain than stated. > "You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat." That's what the gameshow host did in this one trial, but why do we assume that the host would do the same thing every time? Perhaps the host only tries this other-door-goat diversion tactic when the contestant first selected the door with the car!