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I still don't get it. 1. Three doors. 2. Two doors have a goat, and one has a car. 3. The contestant has a 1/3 chance of winning the car? 4. The contest
by hellbannedguy 5y ago
I still don't get it.
1. Three doors.
2. Two doors have a goat, and one has a car.
3. The contestant has a 1/3 chance of winning the car?
4. The contestant loses.
5. New game, and odds?
6. There's a 50/50 chance of winning?
(I'm assuming Monte Hall has no clue to where the car is. He is just opening doors.)
7. Could someone explain it to me, and thanks in advance.
(Off topic but a fawn had two babes in my back yard. It was pretty amazing. At first, it looked like the mother abandoned her babies, but she didn't. The babies stayed in the same spot for two day. By the third day, I thought she abandoned them. I looked into care. I was informed to leave them alone. They said, if you knew for sure the mom was killed, you could bottle feed them Goat's milk. Cow's milk is not good for baby deer. I didn't overreact, and mom was there all along. She now just visits with her healthy kids. This has been my best spring in memory. Happy Mother's day to the moms out there.)
- listenallyall 5y agoMonte Hall DOES have a clue where the car is, and is NOT "just opening doors" With the full knowledge of where the car is, Mr Hall opens a door that is NOT the door the contestant chose, and is also NOT the door containing the car.
- the__alchemist 5y agoThis is the crux of it!
- atdrummond 5y agoYou have three doors. As you note, you have a 1/3 chance of winning. Monty now reveals a losing door. At this point, your door has a 1/3 chance of still winning - the probability of that choice can’t change. However, as we now know one door has a 0/3 chance of winning (it’s been revealed) the remaining door must have (1-1/3) chance of winning. Thus, the remaining door has a 2/3 chance of winning.
- listenallyall 5y agoI'm going to disagree with your framing here. Probabilities DO change as more information becomes available. For example, prior to rolling a pair of dice, you have a 1/36 chance of rolling a 12. However as sooner as you see the value of the first die, the probability changes to either 0 (most likely) or 1/6. In your description, if Monte opens a door randomly -- which you don't make clear whether he does or doesn't -- then the presence of the goat DOES change your P(winning a car).
- atdrummond 5y agoHe never chooses randomly in the Monte Hall problem. He’s always going to reveal a goat. That’s why the maths are so straightforward - and yet so counterintuitive.
- listenallyall 5y ago> He never chooses randomly in the Monte Hall problem. But you never state that, which is why I took exception with your explanation. You also state that probabilities never change, which is also untrue as more information is revealed.
- atdrummond 5y agoNo. All I said is that the probability of the first door winning doesn't change. Which is true - it remains 1/3. The change in probabilities impact the other two doors, whose terminal values I listed (0 and 2/3).
- megablast 5y agoYou’re ignoring the fact that you already have information when it switches to two doors.