5 ms·
Ok, so this is about the Monty Hall problem. A few remarks: 1. It is crucial exactly how the problem is framed. The "correct" framing is: a) Contestant choses
by FabHK 6y ago
Ok, so this is about the Monty Hall problem. A few remarks:
1. It is crucial exactly how the problem is framed. The "correct" framing is:
a) Contestant choses a door, b) Monty Hall will pick a door (different from the one the contestant chose) SUCH THAT a goat is behind it (if there are two, pick one randomly), c) contestant is offered a choice to switch. In that case, the correct answer is to switch, increasing the chance for a car from 1/3 to 2/3.
(The alternative framing is this: a) Contestant choses a door, b) Monty Hall picks a door randomly (different from the one the contestant chose), and if a car is behind that door, then the game ends, otherwise, c) contestant is offered a choice to switch. In this case, switching doesn't matter, the chance of getting the car is indeed 50/50, switching or not.)
2. Not everyone "corrected" her, some people did, and some people supported her. The confusion arose, arguably, because of the unclear framing. (One could argue that the phrase "the host, who knows what’s behind the doors" hints that the first framing is intended, but why not make it explicit? The host could know what is where and still choose randomly, in which case we're at the alternative framing.)