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I didn't state that it doesn't change your odds. Obviously going from 33% to 0% because the car isn't possible to win anymore will be a change of your odds. I s
by jVinc 5y ago
I didn't state that it doesn't change your odds. Obviously going from 33% to 0% because the car isn't possible to win anymore will be a change of your odds. I stated it doesn't change anything, because in one situation you go from 33% to 66% by changing and in the other you go from 0% to 0% by changing. So there is no difference to the logic of always switching because it either improves your odds or keeps them the same.
- PebblesRox 5y agoIf the host reveals a goat at random rather than by special knowledge, your odds don't go from 33% to 66% by switching. The case where the host reveals a goat is only two out of three, not three out of three because one third of the time, the host will reveal the car. In one of those two cases, you picked a goat and in the other you picked a car. So you're at 50% odds whether you switch or not, if the host doesn't know where the car is. If the host does know, then there are three out of three cases where the host reveals a goat. In one out of three cases you picked the car but in the other two cases you picked the goat. So that's why your odds go up if you switch.