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Using Bayes theorem? But if you know to use Bayes theorem, then you're already formulating the problem correctly, which is the problem all the critics are runni
by saeranv 5y ago
Using Bayes theorem? But if you know to use Bayes theorem, then you're already formulating the problem correctly, which is the problem all the critics are running into.
Edit: Someone mentioned you could manually "simulate" it with a pen and paper, which I think is what you meant. If so, very good point.
- mjmahone17 5y agoYou can brute force this without knowing Bayes’ theorem (see the grids in the article as an example of iterating through every possible solution then counting to arrive at the right probability).
- saeranv 5y agoAh! I see, I thought the commentator was saying to solve it mathematically. Manually "simulating" it makes sense.
- ALittleLight 5y agoI was unable to convince my father of this, so he and I just put together a little model with paper plates and coins and carried out the simulation manually until we had twenty or thirty trials and he became convinced by seeing it in action.