3 ms·
This particular one isn’t that hard to just do by hand. Which I did at the time, was surprised at the result, and stared at the column long enough to convince m
by GlenTheMachine 5y ago
This particular one isn’t that hard to just do by hand. Which I did at the time, was surprised at the result, and stared at the column long enough to convince myself why she was right.
- saeranv 5y agoUsing Bayes theorem? But if you know to use Bayes theorem, then you're already formulating the problem correctly, which is the problem all the critics are running into. Edit: Someone mentioned you could manually "simulate" it with a pen and paper, which I think is what you meant. If so, very good point.
- mjmahone17 5y agoYou can brute force this without knowing Bayes’ theorem (see the grids in the article as an example of iterating through every possible solution then counting to arrive at the right probability).
- saeranv 5y agoAh! I see, I thought the commentator was saying to solve it mathematically. Manually "simulating" it makes sense.
- ALittleLight 5y agoI was unable to convince my father of this, so he and I just put together a little model with paper plates and coins and carried out the simulation manually until we had twenty or thirty trials and he became convinced by seeing it in action.