5 ms·

Do you have sources or reading material to substantiate your confidence? I'm interested in this area.

grishka 5y ago
1. https://old.reddit.com/r/longevity/ https://old.reddit.com/r/longevity/ 2. https://joshmitteldorf.scienceblog.com https://joshmitteldorf.scienceblog.com (be sure to follow the links to research papers and read the comments) 3. I also made a playlist with videos and lectures on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLvA7pB41pDk27XOjqbXi4sSvPfLOu1zW https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLvA7pB41pDk27XOjqbXi...
- fighterpilot 5y ago
  Imagine the misfortune of being 80 years old when humanity finally figured out how to do this.
  - grishka 5y ago
    No, imagine the fortune because you'll now have your body reverted to a younger age.
    - fighterpilot 5y ago
      Touche. If it's possible do you know why evolution didn't figure out how to do this? Seems like it would be a good adaptation
      - grishka 5y ago
        This one is easy. First of all, evolution only cares about the species as a whole, so the survival of an individual, especially after they've produced their offspring, doesn't matter much. Second, in the wild, animals will be killed by predators much more quickly than they'd die of old age, so all the mutations that only manifest negatively in older age have never had a chance to be selected against. Besides, the whole premise of evolution is that older generations die. (disclaimer: I'm a software developer, not a biologist, but I'm fascinated by biology)
        I-M-S 5y ago
        You got it in reverse: evolution only "cares" about the individual https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Red_Queen:_Sex_and_the_Evolution_of_Human_Nature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Red_Queen:_Sex_and_the_Evo...
        robwwilliams 5y ago
        Lol. I usually read HN to follow tech trends. This thread in hilariously uninformed. It is as shaky as me writing a critique of database engines would be. On this specific subthread: yes the individual is the level of selection (mainly) but Dawkins has renewed interest in the sequence variant as the ultimate unit of selection. We are protoplasmic bags of gene variants, some of which make it to the next generations.
      - yosito 5y ago
        Evolution optimizes for reproduction, not long life. Long life is likely not very beneficial to reproduction and a large population of older members is a drain on resources. At least, it was until we got to the Information Age.
        joak 5y ago
        Sometimes long life is key to reproduction, for example old turtles are bigger and safer from predators (before humans came) and have more offsprings than younger ones (yearly and in total). Turtles can grow very old because there is reproduction advantage to that.
  - true_religion 5y ago
    I think the worst would be discovering that we can cure old age but only in utero, thus the next generation will be the immoral ones but we will all die eventually.
    - notahacker 5y ago
      The worst would be discovering we can cure old age, but only for people rich enough to pay for the extraordinarily expensive treatment...
- neonological 5y ago
  I'm sorry but this is extremely weak none of this brings it anywhere close to 99%. This is youtube, a blog and reddit. Seriously.
  - grishka 5y ago
    So? There are links to real research papers written by real scientists.
    - Google234 5y ago
      Why do you think we can cure aging when we haven’t solved or even made any progress tackling much simpler problems like Alzheimer’s?
      - grishka 5y ago
        They are not "much simpler" — they're direct consequences of aging. It's like trying to put a fresh coat of paint on a car that has almost rusted through. It makes more sense to address the root cause than its many consequences.
      - robwwilliams 5y ago
        Grishka needs to read more widely on this topic. Start with Caleb E. Finch’s magisterial book “Longevity, Senescence, and the Genome” (University of Chicago Press, 1990). Or read my review with Michael Hook: “Genetic Cartography of Longevity in Humans and Mice: Current Landscape and Horizons”. Just do a text string search. It is on PubMed Central and free.
Jach 5y ago
For a counterpoint to the confidence, but still a very high-confidence prediction, Aubrey de Grey has recently estimated a 50% chance that we'll hit longevity escape velocity by 2036. That is, enough treatments will be available to people such that they can expect their lifespans to be Y, an increase from their previous X. But before they hit Y age, there'll be new treatments developed they can take that extend expected life age even further to Z, and so on, until we arrive at general treatments that extend life indefinitely. Aubrey is the foremost expert in the whole field of longevity research as far as I'm concerned, so I don't have any reason to be more or less confident than him about any aspect of it. If you haven't read it, his Ending Aging book covers a lot of details. It was published in 2007 but has still held up, especially with overall strategy. Apart from the various medical developments since then, another encouraging sign is the increase in newly formed companies in the space, lowering the need for philanthropy/government grants. https://agingbiotech.info/ https://agingbiotech.info/ has a list

1. https://old.reddit.com/r/longevity/ https://old.reddit.com/r/longevity/ 2. https://joshmitteldorf.scienceblog.com https://joshmitteldorf.scienceblog.com (be sure to follow the links to research papers and read the comments) 3. I also made a playlist with videos and lectures on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLvA7pB41pDk27XOjqbXi4sSvPfLOu1zW https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLvA7pB41pDk27XOjqbXi...

fighterpilot 5y ago
Imagine the misfortune of being 80 years old when humanity finally figured out how to do this.
- grishka 5y ago
  No, imagine the fortune because you'll now have your body reverted to a younger age.
  - fighterpilot 5y ago
    Touche. If it's possible do you know why evolution didn't figure out how to do this? Seems like it would be a good adaptation
    - grishka 5y ago
      This one is easy. First of all, evolution only cares about the species as a whole, so the survival of an individual, especially after they've produced their offspring, doesn't matter much. Second, in the wild, animals will be killed by predators much more quickly than they'd die of old age, so all the mutations that only manifest negatively in older age have never had a chance to be selected against. Besides, the whole premise of evolution is that older generations die. (disclaimer: I'm a software developer, not a biologist, but I'm fascinated by biology)
      - I-M-S 5y ago
        You got it in reverse: evolution only "cares" about the individual https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Red_Queen:_Sex_and_the_Evolution_of_Human_Nature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Red_Queen:_Sex_and_the_Evo...
        robwwilliams 5y ago
        Lol. I usually read HN to follow tech trends. This thread in hilariously uninformed. It is as shaky as me writing a critique of database engines would be. On this specific subthread: yes the individual is the level of selection (mainly) but Dawkins has renewed interest in the sequence variant as the ultimate unit of selection. We are protoplasmic bags of gene variants, some of which make it to the next generations.
    - yosito 5y ago
      Evolution optimizes for reproduction, not long life. Long life is likely not very beneficial to reproduction and a large population of older members is a drain on resources. At least, it was until we got to the Information Age.
      - joak 5y ago
        Sometimes long life is key to reproduction, for example old turtles are bigger and safer from predators (before humans came) and have more offsprings than younger ones (yearly and in total). Turtles can grow very old because there is reproduction advantage to that.
- true_religion 5y ago
  I think the worst would be discovering that we can cure old age but only in utero, thus the next generation will be the immoral ones but we will all die eventually.
  - notahacker 5y ago
    The worst would be discovering we can cure old age, but only for people rich enough to pay for the extraordinarily expensive treatment...
neonological 5y ago
I'm sorry but this is extremely weak none of this brings it anywhere close to 99%. This is youtube, a blog and reddit. Seriously.
- grishka 5y ago
  So? There are links to real research papers written by real scientists.
  - Google234 5y ago
    Why do you think we can cure aging when we haven’t solved or even made any progress tackling much simpler problems like Alzheimer’s?
    - grishka 5y ago
      They are not "much simpler" — they're direct consequences of aging. It's like trying to put a fresh coat of paint on a car that has almost rusted through. It makes more sense to address the root cause than its many consequences.
    - robwwilliams 5y ago
      Grishka needs to read more widely on this topic. Start with Caleb E. Finch’s magisterial book “Longevity, Senescence, and the Genome” (University of Chicago Press, 1990). Or read my review with Michael Hook: “Genetic Cartography of Longevity in Humans and Mice: Current Landscape and Horizons”. Just do a text string search. It is on PubMed Central and free.

Jach 5y ago

For a counterpoint to the confidence, but still a very high-confidence prediction, Aubrey de Grey has recently estimated a 50% chance that we'll hit longevity escape velocity by 2036. That is, enough treatments will be available to people such that they can expect their lifespans to be Y, an increase from their previous X. But before they hit Y age, there'll be new treatments developed they can take that extend expected life age even further to Z, and so on, until we arrive at general treatments that extend life indefinitely. Aubrey is the foremost expert in the whole field of longevity research as far as I'm concerned, so I don't have any reason to be more or less confident than him about any aspect of it. If you haven't read it, his Ending Aging book covers a lot of details. It was published in 2007 but has still held up, especially with overall strategy. Apart from the various medical developments since then, another encouraging sign is the increase in newly formed companies in the space, lowering the need for philanthropy/government grants. https://agingbiotech.info/ https://agingbiotech.info/ has a list