4 ms·

I believe the counterargument is to that what is worse, 1/15 of the population losing 15 years or the entire population losing 1 year keeping in mind that 1 yea

I believe the counterargument is to that what is worse, 1/15 of the population losing 15 years or the entire population losing 1 year keeping in mind that 1 year in your prime is probably worth more than 1 year in your old age. These numbers are not COVID specific, just going off your ~15. For COVID numbers, even with 1M deaths, that would be 1/330 (US population) losing on average ~15 years vs. everyone losing almost 2 years now. It's emotionally tough to pick a policy when you are condemning one group to statistical death, but you still have to try and be objective. My personal opinion is that we'll be writing books about the "the lost generation" in 10 years about children currently in school.

UncleOxidant 5y ago
> or the entire population losing 1 year Except we didn't lose a year. A lot of us actually kind of liked the last year. Many got to work from home and discovered it was a lot less stressful than commuting into an office every day, for example. I have a feeling that some of us are going to recall the last year with a bit of nostalgia in the future.
- nostromo 5y ago
  All available data is showing that this past year has been detrimental to poor students. Imagine trying to learn on an old phone, using a cellular internet connection in a bedroom you share with your sister. So, while I'm glad you enjoyed your year at home -- the focus here was on the impact on students.
  - nonameiguess 5y ago
    That isn't true. The parent comment said the "entire population" lost a year of their lives. K-12 students are about 17% of the US population, not all of it.
  - UncleOxidant 5y ago
    It hasn't been detrimental for all students. Some have thrived. https://www.slj.com/?detailStory=some-students-have-taken-to-remote-learning-theyre-thriving-in-fact-COVID-coronavirus https://www.slj.com/?detailStory=some-students-have-taken-to...
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    In my urban school district, areas with the largest concentration of poor students are the ones that most strongly support continued distance learning. Affluent + white families are the ones most opposed.
whimsicalism 5y ago
Numerous problems. 1. The current death toll is with the existing lockdowns. There are good reasons to think that without (especially the early) lockdowns the death toll could have been way higher. 2. Being dead for 1 year cannot be equivalently compared to being socially distant for 1 year (not 2). Is that not obvious? 3. This is before we get into life long disability, etc. due to covid. I know someone whose parent had a covid caused stroke, essentially ending their existence as the person they were before.
- hervature 5y ago
  Correct, all valid points. But we can assign numbers to all these things and the error bars are sufficiently large that there is ample room for debate. As for 2. is it obvious? My niece doesn't know that there are other humans like her, I would gladly take a year at the end of my life to give that gift to her. Given the current vaccination rates, many people will not see normal until 2022. For 3. it cuts both ways, how many new alcoholic parents and child abuse that ruins an entire lifetime?
  - xkjkls 5y ago
    > is it obvious? My niece doesn't know that there are other humans like her, I would gladly take a year at the end of my life to give that gift to her. I'm not sure she is going to agree with you when she visits you toward the end of your life. > For 3. it cuts both ways, how many new alcoholic parents and child abuse that ruins an entire lifetime? It's far from obvious what the effects of COVID-19 are on child abuse. The data is hard to disaggregate because there are so many conflicting factors, but there isn't obvious reason to believe that child abuse is up during the pandemic given the data we have seen: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/03/419961/child-abuse-surges-times-crisis-pandemic-may-be-different https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/03/419961/child-abuse-surges-...
    - hervature 5y ago
      > I'm not sure That sounds like it is not obvious. > The data is hard to disaggregate because there are so many conflicting factors Basically sums up COVID policies. The point remains, I have yet to see any clear objective policy making that even tries to estimate impact on life of all citizens. In absence of anything resembling a consideration of all age groups, I just ignore any opinion of lockdown both for and against.
amcoastal 5y ago
While I agree with the methodology in general, assuming all of us have "lost" a year in a way that is equivalent to being dead is ridiculous.
- hervature 5y ago
  Right, but given all the debate about COVID, we still don't have a number and agree a 1-to-1 is ridiculous. Policy makers need a number to convert lost time to death time. What are they using? It seems one side is using infinite and the other side is using 1-to-1. As with everything, the answer probably is probably somewhere in between the extremes.
  - xkjkls 5y ago
    I don't think one side is using infinity. The issue here is that lockdowns, if done effectively, don't have to last for a full year. Look at Australia. Look at New Zealand. They managed to lock down for substantially less than a year, get the disease under control, and resume life mostly as normal. The US was not, but that also needs to be included in the tradeoff. It wasn't obvious that applying enough pressure wouldn't have prevented the uncontrolled explosion that we now have to deal with.
    - hervature 5y ago
      I don't know how people compare two isolated islands that are multi hour flights to any other nation to the USA with a straight face. Think of the backlash at even proposing locking the Mexico border. Also, Australia and New Zealand just broke their travel bubble, I don't know if that still constitutes as a "short lockdown" if you haven't been allowed to leave your country the entire time. > It wasn't obvious that applying enough pressure wouldn't have prevented the uncontrolled explosion that we now have to deal with. I'm not sure exactly what you're saying here, but I think we agree. Nothing about this pandemic has been obvious.
      - xkjkls 5y ago
        > I don't know how people compare two isolated islands that are multi hour flights to any other nation to the USA with a straight face. Think of the backlash at even proposing locking the Mexico border. Very little of our COVID infections have been linked to either of the geographic borders in this country. While I understand there are greater risks with those borders, it doesn't make the situation incomparable. > Also, Australia and New Zealand just broke their travel bubble, I don't know if that still constitutes as a "short lockdown" if you haven't been allowed to leave your country the entire time. Bars and restaurants and sports have been available the whole time. Even if there wasn't a travel ban from the country, where would people even go? Most other countries aren't allowing visitors.
klyrs 5y ago
> keeping in mind that 1 year in your prime is probably worth more than 1 year in your old age. I keep seeing statements like this, and I must disagree. My mom's retired, nearly 80, and having an absolute blast living her life. At her prime, she was the primary wage-earner, had two kids, and never had a moment to herself. Her quality of life now is much better than when she was "in her prime". She's got a bunch of friends in the same boat.

UncleOxidant 5y ago

> or the entire population losing 1 year Except we didn't lose a year. A lot of us actually kind of liked the last year. Many got to work from home and discovered it was a lot less stressful than commuting into an office every day, for example. I have a feeling that some of us are going to recall the last year with a bit of nostalgia in the future.

nostromo 5y ago
All available data is showing that this past year has been detrimental to poor students. Imagine trying to learn on an old phone, using a cellular internet connection in a bedroom you share with your sister. So, while I'm glad you enjoyed your year at home -- the focus here was on the impact on students.
- nonameiguess 5y ago
  That isn't true. The parent comment said the "entire population" lost a year of their lives. K-12 students are about 17% of the US population, not all of it.
- UncleOxidant 5y ago
  It hasn't been detrimental for all students. Some have thrived. https://www.slj.com/?detailStory=some-students-have-taken-to-remote-learning-theyre-thriving-in-fact-COVID-coronavirus https://www.slj.com/?detailStory=some-students-have-taken-to...
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  In my urban school district, areas with the largest concentration of poor students are the ones that most strongly support continued distance learning. Affluent + white families are the ones most opposed.

whimsicalism 5y ago

Numerous problems. 1. The current death toll is with the existing lockdowns. There are good reasons to think that without (especially the early) lockdowns the death toll could have been way higher. 2. Being dead for 1 year cannot be equivalently compared to being socially distant for 1 year (not 2). Is that not obvious? 3. This is before we get into life long disability, etc. due to covid. I know someone whose parent had a covid caused stroke, essentially ending their existence as the person they were before.

hervature 5y ago
Correct, all valid points. But we can assign numbers to all these things and the error bars are sufficiently large that there is ample room for debate. As for 2. is it obvious? My niece doesn't know that there are other humans like her, I would gladly take a year at the end of my life to give that gift to her. Given the current vaccination rates, many people will not see normal until 2022. For 3. it cuts both ways, how many new alcoholic parents and child abuse that ruins an entire lifetime?
- xkjkls 5y ago
  > is it obvious? My niece doesn't know that there are other humans like her, I would gladly take a year at the end of my life to give that gift to her. I'm not sure she is going to agree with you when she visits you toward the end of your life. > For 3. it cuts both ways, how many new alcoholic parents and child abuse that ruins an entire lifetime? It's far from obvious what the effects of COVID-19 are on child abuse. The data is hard to disaggregate because there are so many conflicting factors, but there isn't obvious reason to believe that child abuse is up during the pandemic given the data we have seen: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/03/419961/child-abuse-surges-times-crisis-pandemic-may-be-different https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/03/419961/child-abuse-surges-...
  - hervature 5y ago
    > I'm not sure That sounds like it is not obvious. > The data is hard to disaggregate because there are so many conflicting factors Basically sums up COVID policies. The point remains, I have yet to see any clear objective policy making that even tries to estimate impact on life of all citizens. In absence of anything resembling a consideration of all age groups, I just ignore any opinion of lockdown both for and against.

amcoastal 5y ago

While I agree with the methodology in general, assuming all of us have "lost" a year in a way that is equivalent to being dead is ridiculous.

hervature 5y ago
Right, but given all the debate about COVID, we still don't have a number and agree a 1-to-1 is ridiculous. Policy makers need a number to convert lost time to death time. What are they using? It seems one side is using infinite and the other side is using 1-to-1. As with everything, the answer probably is probably somewhere in between the extremes.
- xkjkls 5y ago
  I don't think one side is using infinity. The issue here is that lockdowns, if done effectively, don't have to last for a full year. Look at Australia. Look at New Zealand. They managed to lock down for substantially less than a year, get the disease under control, and resume life mostly as normal. The US was not, but that also needs to be included in the tradeoff. It wasn't obvious that applying enough pressure wouldn't have prevented the uncontrolled explosion that we now have to deal with.
  - hervature 5y ago
    I don't know how people compare two isolated islands that are multi hour flights to any other nation to the USA with a straight face. Think of the backlash at even proposing locking the Mexico border. Also, Australia and New Zealand just broke their travel bubble, I don't know if that still constitutes as a "short lockdown" if you haven't been allowed to leave your country the entire time. > It wasn't obvious that applying enough pressure wouldn't have prevented the uncontrolled explosion that we now have to deal with. I'm not sure exactly what you're saying here, but I think we agree. Nothing about this pandemic has been obvious.
    - xkjkls 5y ago
      > I don't know how people compare two isolated islands that are multi hour flights to any other nation to the USA with a straight face. Think of the backlash at even proposing locking the Mexico border. Very little of our COVID infections have been linked to either of the geographic borders in this country. While I understand there are greater risks with those borders, it doesn't make the situation incomparable. > Also, Australia and New Zealand just broke their travel bubble, I don't know if that still constitutes as a "short lockdown" if you haven't been allowed to leave your country the entire time. Bars and restaurants and sports have been available the whole time. Even if there wasn't a travel ban from the country, where would people even go? Most other countries aren't allowing visitors.

klyrs 5y ago

> keeping in mind that 1 year in your prime is probably worth more than 1 year in your old age. I keep seeing statements like this, and I must disagree. My mom's retired, nearly 80, and having an absolute blast living her life. At her prime, she was the primary wage-earner, had two kids, and never had a moment to herself. Her quality of life now is much better than when she was "in her prime". She's got a bunch of friends in the same boat.