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Typically the forecasters are not this wrong. Thus this is cause for investigation and possibly concern. We do want policy makers to be given forecasts on the
by syops 5y ago
Typically the forecasters are not this wrong. Thus this is cause for investigation and possibly concern. We do want policy makers to be given forecasts on these sorts of things and we do want them to be alarmed when the forecasts are so far off.
- Jiocus 5y agoCould less accurate forecasting be attributed to exceptional circumstances of the environment they have tried to analyze? I have the feeling there's quite a few “predictions” during this pandemic that are off. Where people or the economy have acted contrary to popular beliefs or rational modelling.
- syops 5y agoI have no expertise in this area. I imagine that there is an increased amount of guessing due to uncertainty about our present circumstances.