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I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epid

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor, and then you are done. Every other theory requires involving many more unsupported hypotheses. This would be obvious to the majority of the HN population in most cases, but the disinformation in this case is apparently quite effective.

Consultant32452 5y ago
I would like to add another factor in your favor for this hypothesis. Naturally occurring viruses/bacteria tend to evolve to spread most effectively in conditions similar to how animals live: outside. COVID-19, conversely, seems to fair poorly outside and spreads most rapidly in indoor conditions not unlike one would expect in a human run laboratory environment.
- risaacs99 5y ago
  A virus with a novel mutation favoring humans would be successful infecting humans, period. I can't imagine any respiratory virus that wouldn't spread more effectively indoors. This "factor" is not particularly compelling (to me).
- dont__panic 5y ago
  Just to play devil's advocate, wouldn't COVID-19 also spread particularly efficiently in, say, a cave? Where bats live?
  - celticninja 5y ago
    Wouldn't they have located the cave by now, and a load of bats infected with the virus.
    - rcxdude 5y ago
      There's a lot of bats, caves, and viruses. Virologists find new viruses all the time, why would you expect that they have surveyed enough that the fact that they haven't found a particular one is evidence it's not present?
      - celticninja 5y ago
        The Chinese government are actively preventing the survey from occurring so that may be one reason we have not found it.
- mekkkkkk 5y ago
  The way bats congregate and sleep in tight huddled up clusters would seem to be perfect for transmission.
walleeee 5y ago
The Chinese state is by no means the only body pushing politicized information regarding covid origins It doesn't make much sense to single it out here, the most plausible version of the lab leak hypothesis is that covid is the result of cooperative research undertaken by American and Chinese scientists and funded by both governments Edit: I'd love to receive a substantive counterargument from the downvoters
- anonAndOn 5y ago
  I think you underestimate the carelessness of humans and their ability to understand risk. Years ago I saw a graduate student break important lab rules and bring home a genetically modified plant to show some friends and I how cool it was. Had that plant somehow cross pollinated with its wild cousins, who knows what kind of damage it could have done. The genie may never have ever gotten back in the bottle, kinda like SARS-CoV-2.
  - walleeee 5y ago
    I think you're misunderstanding me. I totally agree- humans are frequently careless and wont to ignore risks which don't slap us in the face I'm saying there's a paper trail establishing joint American-Chinese gain of function research taking place in Wuhan, and if we're going to judge the lab leak hypothesis plausible, I see no good reason not to ascribe similar motivations to cover it up to the US government as well as to the Chinese
- jollybean 5y ago
  Because the origins are in China, and the lab breakout would be squarely blamed on China, the incentive for them to lie is basically existential. Since the CPP manipulates all data for their gain, it's very well within their objectives and capabilities to make up whatever story they think will work. Literally the future of their Empire is at stake. As for the Americans, their culpability in helping make the lab I think would be seen as a small thing. Paradoxically, it may be in everyone's interest for the plebes to never find out the truth. If there was magically some 'hard evidence' to appear, right now, that made China culpable ... we would be heading into another, massive recession. There would be riots around the world, Asians in every continent would face threats of violence and attacks for a decade. Forget America where those things are talked about ... you can forget being Chinese in Poland, it would be painful. The populism would be intense and ferocious, but not only that, regular institutions, businesses, CEOs etc would also be upset for very good reason. I can see China facing lawsuits for literally Trillions of dollars. It could feasibly lead to a chain of events sparking a war. This is completely conspiratorial, but I honestly wonder if the West actively doesn't want to push for the truth because it would do more damage than good. If China knows 'they did it' they're probably going to make the changes necessary so it doesn't happen again, for their own benefit, and it's unlikely they need international pressure or the threat of litigation to improve those pressures. But that's just a fantastical idea. Basically 'The Truth' is a different thing than 'The Impact of Public Information' and both of those things matter. It's a scary thought but it's the Realpolitik of information.
rlpb 5y ago
> The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor, and then you are done. What's the reason the lab is located in that city? Is there an underlying causal connection? For example, is Wuhan prone to novel coronoviruses because of the local bat population, and so that was the logical place to site a coronavirus research lab? If so, Occam's Razor would suggest that common connection as the more simple explanation.
- varjag 5y ago
  It's not. The officially suspect bat population was some 800km away from Wuhan. Similarly, Sverdlovsk lab (the ground zero of 1979 anthrax outbreak) wasn't located there because Sverdlovsk specifically suspect to anthrax. An interesting tidbit, the party blamed the local farmer (wet) market for the outbreak there.
- 40four 5y ago
  The idea that the bat population is local to Wuhan is a misconception. The bats from which the gain of function research studies are being done were collected from Yunnan province 800 miles away, not locally in Wuhan. They still have not been able to identity any animals in the market, bats or civets, that would explain the natural spillover hypothesis.
  - rlpb 5y ago
    I'm not trying to claim otherwise. My point is that an underlying connection, if one exists, would make the gp's Occam's Razor argument moot.
    - 40four 5y ago
      Fair enough. I was mostly trying to point out there is no ‘local’ bat population tied to coronavirus. I appreciate you’re trying to look at it with critical thinking though. I don’t know the reason that lab is located in Wuhan specifically. But if you want to find the answer, I think you have to look into who funded the research.
Jeema101 5y ago
It could be that you're confusing cause and effect, though. How do we know that the virus (or a precursor) wasn't already circulating in China, and was simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there? (Also I'm not entirely sure your statement about the gain of function research is correct. A Google search doesn't seem to provide any evidence one way or another.)
- diogenescynic 5y ago
  Wouldn’t that be incredibly convenient and unlikely?
  - dopidopHN 5y ago
    What would be unlikely for a pandemic to also affect wuhan?
    - raducu 5y ago
      To START in Wuhan, the only place doing gain-of function on the closest known virus to SARS2 and to not find a natural source for it given the source was found within months for both SARS1 and MERS.
      - dopidopHN 5y ago
        Did it start in wuhan? I thought we found trace of COVID in urine elsewhere
- TN1ck 5y ago
  Interesting point, similar to why the „Spanish flu“ is called like that even though it originated in the US.
  - kmonsen 5y ago
    I thought the Spanish flu originated in China but came to Europe from the U.S., but came to the U.S. from Canada?
lamontcg 5y ago
> Every other theory requires involving many more unsupported hypotheses. No it doesn't. All it takes is bats around farmed animals like minks or raccoon dogs. That sets up a natural "gain of function" experiment with the bats passing viruses off to the farmed animals who pass it sequentially through the entire farm. The humans who work at those farms then bring in human coronaviruses which could have recombined with the viruses in the farm. You have large bioreactors doing gain of function experiments all over China right out in plain view, with Charles Darwin overseeing the lab work.
- jollybean 5y ago
  Except that after 15 months of global catastrophy and investigation, no evidence has been found in support of that. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it would seem that if 'minks' were the problem, there would be trail of evidence to pick up on. Hence the notion of speculation / Occam's Razor.
  - lamontcg 5y ago
    Has China bothered seriously looking for that, or are they happy to distract by pointing the finger at Italy and making the argument over lab escape? I keep reading reports that China conveniently threw away all their wastewater samples and respiratory samples. I don't see much of an effort towards studying their farm animals or tracking down the bat origins. There just hasn't been that much of an investigation. China seems to have done enough to provide an air of cooperation with WHO, while not producing anything solid. For their domestic consumption they've also accomplished their propaganda goals. The global scientific community (outside of fringe articles like here) has generally dismissed the idea that it came from a lab, which China can amplify in front of its population. Then they just muddy the waters with the idea that it came in frozen seafood from Italy and they can move on. There's no incentive to investigating the zoonotic orgins. And its the same thing here in reverse. Politically we just get articles like this to get people very made at China over the lab release hypothesis, which deflects from our own pandemic response. Politically there seems to be very little will on the planet towards finding a zoonotic source.
- 5y ago

Consultant32452 5y ago

I would like to add another factor in your favor for this hypothesis. Naturally occurring viruses/bacteria tend to evolve to spread most effectively in conditions similar to how animals live: outside. COVID-19, conversely, seems to fair poorly outside and spreads most rapidly in indoor conditions not unlike one would expect in a human run laboratory environment.

risaacs99 5y ago
A virus with a novel mutation favoring humans would be successful infecting humans, period. I can't imagine any respiratory virus that wouldn't spread more effectively indoors. This "factor" is not particularly compelling (to me).
dont__panic 5y ago
Just to play devil's advocate, wouldn't COVID-19 also spread particularly efficiently in, say, a cave? Where bats live?
- celticninja 5y ago
  Wouldn't they have located the cave by now, and a load of bats infected with the virus.
  - rcxdude 5y ago
    There's a lot of bats, caves, and viruses. Virologists find new viruses all the time, why would you expect that they have surveyed enough that the fact that they haven't found a particular one is evidence it's not present?
    - celticninja 5y ago
      The Chinese government are actively preventing the survey from occurring so that may be one reason we have not found it.
mekkkkkk 5y ago
The way bats congregate and sleep in tight huddled up clusters would seem to be perfect for transmission.

walleeee 5y ago

The Chinese state is by no means the only body pushing politicized information regarding covid origins It doesn't make much sense to single it out here, the most plausible version of the lab leak hypothesis is that covid is the result of cooperative research undertaken by American and Chinese scientists and funded by both governments Edit: I'd love to receive a substantive counterargument from the downvoters

anonAndOn 5y ago
I think you underestimate the carelessness of humans and their ability to understand risk. Years ago I saw a graduate student break important lab rules and bring home a genetically modified plant to show some friends and I how cool it was. Had that plant somehow cross pollinated with its wild cousins, who knows what kind of damage it could have done. The genie may never have ever gotten back in the bottle, kinda like SARS-CoV-2.
- walleeee 5y ago
  I think you're misunderstanding me. I totally agree- humans are frequently careless and wont to ignore risks which don't slap us in the face I'm saying there's a paper trail establishing joint American-Chinese gain of function research taking place in Wuhan, and if we're going to judge the lab leak hypothesis plausible, I see no good reason not to ascribe similar motivations to cover it up to the US government as well as to the Chinese
jollybean 5y ago
Because the origins are in China, and the lab breakout would be squarely blamed on China, the incentive for them to lie is basically existential. Since the CPP manipulates all data for their gain, it's very well within their objectives and capabilities to make up whatever story they think will work. Literally the future of their Empire is at stake. As for the Americans, their culpability in helping make the lab I think would be seen as a small thing. Paradoxically, it may be in everyone's interest for the plebes to never find out the truth. If there was magically some 'hard evidence' to appear, right now, that made China culpable ... we would be heading into another, massive recession. There would be riots around the world, Asians in every continent would face threats of violence and attacks for a decade. Forget America where those things are talked about ... you can forget being Chinese in Poland, it would be painful. The populism would be intense and ferocious, but not only that, regular institutions, businesses, CEOs etc would also be upset for very good reason. I can see China facing lawsuits for literally Trillions of dollars. It could feasibly lead to a chain of events sparking a war. This is completely conspiratorial, but I honestly wonder if the West actively doesn't want to push for the truth because it would do more damage than good. If China knows 'they did it' they're probably going to make the changes necessary so it doesn't happen again, for their own benefit, and it's unlikely they need international pressure or the threat of litigation to improve those pressures. But that's just a fantastical idea. Basically 'The Truth' is a different thing than 'The Impact of Public Information' and both of those things matter. It's a scary thought but it's the Realpolitik of information.

rlpb 5y ago

> The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor, and then you are done. What's the reason the lab is located in that city? Is there an underlying causal connection? For example, is Wuhan prone to novel coronoviruses because of the local bat population, and so that was the logical place to site a coronavirus research lab? If so, Occam's Razor would suggest that common connection as the more simple explanation.

varjag 5y ago
It's not. The officially suspect bat population was some 800km away from Wuhan. Similarly, Sverdlovsk lab (the ground zero of 1979 anthrax outbreak) wasn't located there because Sverdlovsk specifically suspect to anthrax. An interesting tidbit, the party blamed the local farmer (wet) market for the outbreak there.
40four 5y ago
The idea that the bat population is local to Wuhan is a misconception. The bats from which the gain of function research studies are being done were collected from Yunnan province 800 miles away, not locally in Wuhan. They still have not been able to identity any animals in the market, bats or civets, that would explain the natural spillover hypothesis.
- rlpb 5y ago
  I'm not trying to claim otherwise. My point is that an underlying connection, if one exists, would make the gp's Occam's Razor argument moot.
  - 40four 5y ago
    Fair enough. I was mostly trying to point out there is no ‘local’ bat population tied to coronavirus. I appreciate you’re trying to look at it with critical thinking though. I don’t know the reason that lab is located in Wuhan specifically. But if you want to find the answer, I think you have to look into who funded the research.

Jeema101 5y ago

It could be that you're confusing cause and effect, though. How do we know that the virus (or a precursor) wasn't already circulating in China, and was simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there? (Also I'm not entirely sure your statement about the gain of function research is correct. A Google search doesn't seem to provide any evidence one way or another.)

diogenescynic 5y ago
Wouldn’t that be incredibly convenient and unlikely?
- dopidopHN 5y ago
  What would be unlikely for a pandemic to also affect wuhan?
  - raducu 5y ago
    To START in Wuhan, the only place doing gain-of function on the closest known virus to SARS2 and to not find a natural source for it given the source was found within months for both SARS1 and MERS.
    - dopidopHN 5y ago
      Did it start in wuhan? I thought we found trace of COVID in urine elsewhere
TN1ck 5y ago
Interesting point, similar to why the „Spanish flu“ is called like that even though it originated in the US.
- kmonsen 5y ago
  I thought the Spanish flu originated in China but came to Europe from the U.S., but came to the U.S. from Canada?

lamontcg 5y ago

> Every other theory requires involving many more unsupported hypotheses. No it doesn't. All it takes is bats around farmed animals like minks or raccoon dogs. That sets up a natural "gain of function" experiment with the bats passing viruses off to the farmed animals who pass it sequentially through the entire farm. The humans who work at those farms then bring in human coronaviruses which could have recombined with the viruses in the farm. You have large bioreactors doing gain of function experiments all over China right out in plain view, with Charles Darwin overseeing the lab work.

jollybean 5y ago
Except that after 15 months of global catastrophy and investigation, no evidence has been found in support of that. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it would seem that if 'minks' were the problem, there would be trail of evidence to pick up on. Hence the notion of speculation / Occam's Razor.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  Has China bothered seriously looking for that, or are they happy to distract by pointing the finger at Italy and making the argument over lab escape? I keep reading reports that China conveniently threw away all their wastewater samples and respiratory samples. I don't see much of an effort towards studying their farm animals or tracking down the bat origins. There just hasn't been that much of an investigation. China seems to have done enough to provide an air of cooperation with WHO, while not producing anything solid. For their domestic consumption they've also accomplished their propaganda goals. The global scientific community (outside of fringe articles like here) has generally dismissed the idea that it came from a lab, which China can amplify in front of its population. Then they just muddy the waters with the idea that it came in frozen seafood from Italy and they can move on. There's no incentive to investigating the zoonotic orgins. And its the same thing here in reverse. Politically we just get articles like this to get people very made at China over the lab release hypothesis, which deflects from our own pandemic response. Politically there seems to be very little will on the planet towards finding a zoonotic source.
5y ago