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Arresting Drs talking about a possible repeat of SARS is something China clearly wouldn’t want out unless it absolutely had to. The effects on markets, general

Arresting Drs talking about a possible repeat of SARS is something China clearly wouldn’t want out unless it absolutely had to. The effects on markets, general panic etc are not nothing issues. Later discovering they really did have a problem and it was even worse than SARS going to a full lockdown at the main crossroads city right before Chinese New Year (the largest human migration event). The motivation feels very normal/predicable for China. And also similar to their SARS response. So is SARS also an intentional self inflicted lab leak? And is MERS a secret belt and road initiative? Seems weird there is a conspiracy about the third deadly coronavirus but not the first two... or the common cold for that matter? Where did that come from and was that a lab leak? Whole thing smells of lazy arm chair enquiry with a touch of xenophobia

Kognito 5y ago
I don’t know why any mention of a lab escape automatically triggers people to start shouting “xenophobe”. There’s nothing particularly new about lab escapes, they happen quite frequently. And given the presence of a bio-lab studying coronaviruses just a short distance from the site of the first reported cases, why would any rational person not consider that as a possibility? I don’t think you even have to go down the “bio weapon” route here. It could be as simple as a worker infecting themselves with a natural sample unwittingly. Following your logic then, I think China would be incredibly unlikely to admit a lab escape of a natural sample now given the devastation it has caused. It’d be a huge loss of face and draw questions towards China’s competence.
- onethought 5y ago
  In the context of the rest of my comment SARS, MERS... so we know that deadly variants of coronavirus break into the human population. But THIS one is the lab leak...
didericis 5y ago
If this did come from a lab, it was an accident. I think it’s unreasonable to consider the spread in China intentional, as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. The main difference from SARS is we know there is a virology lab in Wuhan researching coronaviruses right across from the wet market considered the epicenter. I don’t know enough about the reaction to SARS to know how similar it was, but my understanding was they were similarly draconian internally, and were trying to keep it relatively quiet, but I am not aware of any arrests of doctors early on in SARS outbreaks. The plausibility of Covid escaping from a lab does not make all viruses plausibly escaped from labs. The reason it’s more plausible for covid are the initial reactions and the proximity of the epicenter to a virology lab studying covid. I fail to see how it’s xenophobic to consider the lab leak plausible. If anything a natural spread relies on the assumption that the wet market was engaged in unhygienic practices and that someone foreign may have eaten an infected bat.
- notriskfree 5y ago
  Setting the actual tragic pandemic to one side. It is not true that there are never going to be reasonable motivations to deploy a virus:- It could be viewed as a tool to alter population demographics in an ageing society. It might be deployed against an adversary. It might be used to reduce the human population to avoid a predicted ecological disaster. There are probably dozens of very reasonable motivations.
  - didericis 5y ago
    That’s a stronger claim than I was making; I don’t think it’s categorically unreasonable to assume there’s motivation to intentionally release a virus. I think it’s unreasonable to think there was a motivation to intentionally release Covid. I don’t think there’s reasonable motivation given when and where the outbreak started, how the virus works, China’s response, etc. I think the particular scenarios you’re painting are also quite extreme/unlikely, so any claim that a virus was released intentionally would require extraordinary evidence in most cases/I’d rarely entertain that hypothesis. There are less drastic and risky ways with less blowback of dealing with all of those issues, even if you assume a very capable bad actor and ignore the normal and expected amount of incompetence and error.
    - notriskfree 5y ago
      Right, I agree with you completely on Covid.
- collyw 5y ago
  > as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. China is the only major economy to have done well during the pandemic. Not saying that it was intentional but it seems somewhat naive to say there is no reasonable motivation to do so.
  - didericis 5y ago
    I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume they knew that would be the outcome, or that they would release it intentionally on their own population to affect the rest of the world.

Kognito 5y ago

I don’t know why any mention of a lab escape automatically triggers people to start shouting “xenophobe”. There’s nothing particularly new about lab escapes, they happen quite frequently. And given the presence of a bio-lab studying coronaviruses just a short distance from the site of the first reported cases, why would any rational person not consider that as a possibility? I don’t think you even have to go down the “bio weapon” route here. It could be as simple as a worker infecting themselves with a natural sample unwittingly. Following your logic then, I think China would be incredibly unlikely to admit a lab escape of a natural sample now given the devastation it has caused. It’d be a huge loss of face and draw questions towards China’s competence.

onethought 5y ago
In the context of the rest of my comment SARS, MERS... so we know that deadly variants of coronavirus break into the human population. But THIS one is the lab leak...

didericis 5y ago

If this did come from a lab, it was an accident. I think it’s unreasonable to consider the spread in China intentional, as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. The main difference from SARS is we know there is a virology lab in Wuhan researching coronaviruses right across from the wet market considered the epicenter. I don’t know enough about the reaction to SARS to know how similar it was, but my understanding was they were similarly draconian internally, and were trying to keep it relatively quiet, but I am not aware of any arrests of doctors early on in SARS outbreaks. The plausibility of Covid escaping from a lab does not make all viruses plausibly escaped from labs. The reason it’s more plausible for covid are the initial reactions and the proximity of the epicenter to a virology lab studying covid. I fail to see how it’s xenophobic to consider the lab leak plausible. If anything a natural spread relies on the assumption that the wet market was engaged in unhygienic practices and that someone foreign may have eaten an infected bat.

notriskfree 5y ago
Setting the actual tragic pandemic to one side. It is not true that there are never going to be reasonable motivations to deploy a virus:- It could be viewed as a tool to alter population demographics in an ageing society. It might be deployed against an adversary. It might be used to reduce the human population to avoid a predicted ecological disaster. There are probably dozens of very reasonable motivations.
- didericis 5y ago
  That’s a stronger claim than I was making; I don’t think it’s categorically unreasonable to assume there’s motivation to intentionally release a virus. I think it’s unreasonable to think there was a motivation to intentionally release Covid. I don’t think there’s reasonable motivation given when and where the outbreak started, how the virus works, China’s response, etc. I think the particular scenarios you’re painting are also quite extreme/unlikely, so any claim that a virus was released intentionally would require extraordinary evidence in most cases/I’d rarely entertain that hypothesis. There are less drastic and risky ways with less blowback of dealing with all of those issues, even if you assume a very capable bad actor and ignore the normal and expected amount of incompetence and error.
  - notriskfree 5y ago
    Right, I agree with you completely on Covid.
collyw 5y ago
> as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. China is the only major economy to have done well during the pandemic. Not saying that it was intentional but it seems somewhat naive to say there is no reasonable motivation to do so.
- didericis 5y ago
  I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume they knew that would be the outcome, or that they would release it intentionally on their own population to affect the rest of the world.