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This is the whole "black swan" idea that Nassim Taleb writes about – events that are very rare and unpredictable but completely life-changing. This might be a p
by agalunar 5y ago
This is the whole "black swan" idea that Nassim Taleb writes about – events that are very rare and unpredictable but completely life-changing. This might be a poor paraphrase, but roughly: We're not very good at reasoning about these sorts of events, and domain experts are not immune. It's easy to believe you have more predictive or explanative power than you actually do, and to expose yourself to unacceptable risk as a result.
- activatedgeek 5y agoIn this particular case, my argument is more along the lines of what this "team of experts" does is a conscious choice throughout. Black swan events can probably describe a lot of things, but my understanding is that an individual or a team does not really set themselves up for black swan events. It just happens.