3 ms·
> It's interesting that he cannot prove that his "black swan" strategy has ever been actionable for his own or anyone's portfolio, how to use his theories to ma
by pdog 5y ago
> It's interesting that he cannot prove that his "black swan" strategy has ever been actionable for his own or anyone's portfolio, how to use his theories to make significant money vs. normal strategies...
Mark Spitznagel, a cofounder of Empirica (Taleb's old fund), went on to start Universa which did pretty well with similar theories (tail-risk strategies and insurance via options against extreme market risk) in both the 2008-2009 period and last year, when they booked a huge return. So there's some evidence that the theories work to produce uncorrelated (or negatively correlated) returns that outperform the market[1].
[1]: Universa's flagship "Black Swan Protection Protocol" fund has produced a mean annual return on invested capital of 76% since the firm was created in 2008. https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/04/13/how-a-goat-farmer-built-a-doomsday-machine-that-just-booked-a-4144-return/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/04/13/how-a-go...