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Any phenomenon which decreases in rate proportional to our ability to measure it is very unlikely to exist. This reasoning applies to all historical mumbojumbo

Any phenomenon which decreases in rate proportional to our ability to measure it is very unlikely to exist. This reasoning applies to all historical mumbojumbo: ufos, bigfoot, ghosts, etc. These ideas are plausible insofar as they are constructed to be almost unmeasurable. The preponderance of camera phones today means we have 1bn+ people able to measure their environment at abitary frequencies, and all such phenomena have essentially disappeared. Either somehow all ghosts, bigfoots, aliens, etc. are disappearing because we are measuring them; or they never existed. NB. These ideas "go together" only socially, ie. believed by a secular-religious community. The objects they describe have no intrinsic relationship (bigfoot is not like a ghost). When you have a class of such ideas, it is likely they are wholesale false (ie. mythological). It is possible to somewhat statistically predict P(IdeaSet is Mythological) by the degree to which each idea in the set is in a common domain with the other ideas. A conspiracy/mythology is an IdeaSet which is mostly disjoint.

zionic 6y ago
>Any phenomenon which decreases in rate proportional to our ability to measure it is very unlikely to exist. Military UFO sightings have only increased as we have deployed more sophisticated RADAR/LIDAR/Thermal/EWAR systems. In the nimitz case they had just recently been upgraded. AEGIS/SPY-1 detected objects entering theater at 80,000+ ft, that quickly dropped to sea level. The tracks then disappeared from radar and the carrier groups sub gets a sonar hit in the same location of something going 200MPH under water. We have complex multi-spectrum/multi-system detection events of objects/crafts capable of trans-medium travel, a capability no known adversary has.
- simonh 6y ago
  >In the nimitz case they had just recently been upgraded Fancy new equipment that's new to it's operators, who aren't familiar with it's capabilities and behaviour, using it in a highly complex environment. What could possibly go wrong. When I see an instrument measure something at some extreme level, which suddenly drops to another extreme level, personally I think instrument auto-recalibration. We had a host suddenly decide it was logging events from 30 years ago, then switch back to 'today'. Turns out it wasn't aliens or ghosts, just a glitch in NTP.

zionic 6y ago

>Any phenomenon which decreases in rate proportional to our ability to measure it is very unlikely to exist. Military UFO sightings have only increased as we have deployed more sophisticated RADAR/LIDAR/Thermal/EWAR systems. In the nimitz case they had just recently been upgraded. AEGIS/SPY-1 detected objects entering theater at 80,000+ ft, that quickly dropped to sea level. The tracks then disappeared from radar and the carrier groups sub gets a sonar hit in the same location of something going 200MPH under water. We have complex multi-spectrum/multi-system detection events of objects/crafts capable of trans-medium travel, a capability no known adversary has.

simonh 6y ago
>In the nimitz case they had just recently been upgraded Fancy new equipment that's new to it's operators, who aren't familiar with it's capabilities and behaviour, using it in a highly complex environment. What could possibly go wrong. When I see an instrument measure something at some extreme level, which suddenly drops to another extreme level, personally I think instrument auto-recalibration. We had a host suddenly decide it was logging events from 30 years ago, then switch back to 'today'. Turns out it wasn't aliens or ghosts, just a glitch in NTP.