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So I'm reluctant to post this but here we go.. In this case it is most probably high competence. Coming out of WW2 it wasn't difficult to take national securit

So I'm reluctant to post this but here we go.. In this case it is most probably high competence. Coming out of WW2 it wasn't difficult to take national security extremely serious. I thought that there wasn't much to the crash(es) near Corona in 1947 but the witness testimonies are just very very convincing, I actually changed my mind after reading up on the subject recently (before I would have said I don't know anything about it but I'd be amazed if it was true). A lot of observations had been made the weeks previous to the crash and gathered a lot of headlines, including the one in Portland that coined the expression "flying saucer". The person in the photo with the weather balloon is on record saying that it was not a weather balloon, that was a cover story, as are a lot of other people involved in the handling of wreckage and bodies in the days after. These are people that didn't come forward but had to be found after several decades. And this was the press release by the military before it was withdrawn and replaced with the balloon story: "The many rumors regarding the flying disc became a reality yesterday when the intelligence office of the 509th Bomb Group of the Eighth Air Force, Roswell Army Air Field, was fortunate enough to gain possession of a disc through the cooperation of one of the local ranchers and the sheriff's office of Chaves County" I encourage anyone who is interested to look at Stanton Friedman's interviews with witnesses, they are on youtube.

mjburgess 5y ago
The speed of light essentially prohibits space travel. The fastest possible speed for any material object to travel at is incredibly slow compared to any meaningful distance. It is millenia just from the sun to the edge of our solar system, let alone to anything "near by". The universe is not the kind of place where living things can travel "between worlds". This is scifi -- and it is no coincidence UFO sightings peak in the era of Star Treck, and space races. P(All life is organic | All known chemistry) ~= Very High P(All intelligent organic life degrades) ~= Very High thef. P(Alien Life Lasts Long Enough To Travel | Above ) ~= Very Low Physics & Chemistry basically rule out alien contact. Once you insert these priors into your reasoning the "D - it's aliens!" becomes extraordinarily implausible. It's remarkable this author finds D-Aliens more likely than D-SecretSociety. The latter only requires plausible localised advancements in knowledge and conspiracy; the former requires believing everything we know about biochemistry and physics to be radically incorrect.
- MobileVet 5y ago
  While I agree with your assessment of known modes of travel, this also assumes we know everything. I believe it is a safe assumption that we do not. There are potential modes of travel via worm holes or similar inter-dimensional transits that could account for vast distances shrinking to zero without violating our known physics laws.
- mrfusion 5y ago
  You seem to ignore Von nuaman (sp) probes, generation ships, non carbon based life. And that’s before we consider that our understanding of physics may not be complete.
  - mjburgess 5y ago
    I didn't ignore them. It may be clearer to write all probabilities above as being conditioned on "our best knowledge of the universe". P(All intelligent life is organic | Our best knowldge) =~ 1 Who knows the actual P(All intelligent life is organic). My point is that OP seems profoundly ignorant of "the facts of the matter" as our best theories describe them. Such facts make D-AnythingOtherThanAliens vastly more likely than D-Aliens. It is possible to "imagine" a world in which non-carbon-based life develops to an intelligent point (somehow with evolution...? adaption? ... organic growth...?)... And it is possible to Imagine they develop space ships, can travel near light speed and survive for billions of years without severe issues (again: how could an intelligent life develop which "thinks on small time scales" enough to build ships, but not be severely affected by having to live for billions of years?). And its possible to imagine such a species has been exploring the near infinite vastness of space for long enough to have found earth and contacted us in a bizarre series of ways that routinely have little in common. Etc. But this imagined scenario is based in exactly zero physics, chemistry, biochemistry or anything else. That such a novel can be written weighs nothing on whether we ought actual count it as a possibility.
    - mrfusion 5y ago
      I like your thinking but this still bothers me: > P(All intelligent life is organic | Our best knowldge) =~ 1 Even looking at ourselves, we are somewhat close to AI and it’s a reasonable belief that we’ll have something smarter than us within a few decades. Why are non organic aliens so unlikely to you?
goodcanadian 5y ago
Apparently, there was a cover-up, but not of an alien spaceship: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Mogul https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Mogul

mjburgess 5y ago

The speed of light essentially prohibits space travel. The fastest possible speed for any material object to travel at is incredibly slow compared to any meaningful distance. It is millenia just from the sun to the edge of our solar system, let alone to anything "near by". The universe is not the kind of place where living things can travel "between worlds". This is scifi -- and it is no coincidence UFO sightings peak in the era of Star Treck, and space races. P(All life is organic | All known chemistry) ~= Very High P(All intelligent organic life degrades) ~= Very High thef. P(Alien Life Lasts Long Enough To Travel | Above ) ~= Very Low Physics & Chemistry basically rule out alien contact. Once you insert these priors into your reasoning the "D - it's aliens!" becomes extraordinarily implausible. It's remarkable this author finds D-Aliens more likely than D-SecretSociety. The latter only requires plausible localised advancements in knowledge and conspiracy; the former requires believing everything we know about biochemistry and physics to be radically incorrect.

MobileVet 5y ago
While I agree with your assessment of known modes of travel, this also assumes we know everything. I believe it is a safe assumption that we do not. There are potential modes of travel via worm holes or similar inter-dimensional transits that could account for vast distances shrinking to zero without violating our known physics laws.
mrfusion 5y ago
You seem to ignore Von nuaman (sp) probes, generation ships, non carbon based life. And that’s before we consider that our understanding of physics may not be complete.
- mjburgess 5y ago
  I didn't ignore them. It may be clearer to write all probabilities above as being conditioned on "our best knowledge of the universe". P(All intelligent life is organic | Our best knowldge) =~ 1 Who knows the actual P(All intelligent life is organic). My point is that OP seems profoundly ignorant of "the facts of the matter" as our best theories describe them. Such facts make D-AnythingOtherThanAliens vastly more likely than D-Aliens. It is possible to "imagine" a world in which non-carbon-based life develops to an intelligent point (somehow with evolution...? adaption? ... organic growth...?)... And it is possible to Imagine they develop space ships, can travel near light speed and survive for billions of years without severe issues (again: how could an intelligent life develop which "thinks on small time scales" enough to build ships, but not be severely affected by having to live for billions of years?). And its possible to imagine such a species has been exploring the near infinite vastness of space for long enough to have found earth and contacted us in a bizarre series of ways that routinely have little in common. Etc. But this imagined scenario is based in exactly zero physics, chemistry, biochemistry or anything else. That such a novel can be written weighs nothing on whether we ought actual count it as a possibility.
  - mrfusion 5y ago
    I like your thinking but this still bothers me: > P(All intelligent life is organic | Our best knowldge) =~ 1 Even looking at ourselves, we are somewhat close to AI and it’s a reasonable belief that we’ll have something smarter than us within a few decades. Why are non organic aliens so unlikely to you?

goodcanadian 5y ago

Apparently, there was a cover-up, but not of an alien spaceship: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Mogul https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Mogul