6 ms·

Japan should cut losses and tell the IOC to take its Olympic pillage elsewhere

53 points by Clewza313 5y ago

throwaway197812 5y ago
What a bizarre screed. "Baron Von Ripper-off"? Who exactly is Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post writing to? I'd be quite surprised if any of the decision makers in Japan give a flying fuck what she thinks. Most likely they are acting in their own self-interest, just like the IOC. Billions have already been spent; all the revenue from foreign spectators has already been cancelled. If the games are cancelled entirely, any chance of revenue will be destroyed, not to mention a huge loss of face. The paternalistic tone here is also way off-base. Many Japanese are quite tired of being told what to do by Americans for the past 75+ years.
- wavefunction 5y ago
  It's just an opinion piece in an American newspaper. This is an odd post to be sure.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- HeavenFox 5y ago
  Tone aside, she is not wrong though. At this point, there are only two groups of people who are clearly incentivized for the Olympics to happen: the IOC, which would lose all the revenue; and the athletes who would "age out" for the 2024 games. Why should an entire city, even an entire country, bear the cost for just a few?
  - Danieru 5y ago
    > Why should an entire city, even an entire country, bear the cost for just a few? Are you imaging some form of refund on the billions in infrastructure spending? Japan has nothing to gain by canceling and freeing the athletes and IOC from their responsibilities. Why shouldn't Japan get their own private Olympics? They paid for it.
    - fomine3 5y ago
      Sunk cost.
      - Danieru 5y ago
        Yes that's the point.
        admax88q 5y ago
        You're actievly committing the sink cost fallacy. You need to ignore how much has been spent already and just look at how much it more it will cost from right now to host the Olympics, compared to potential value it would produce.
        Danieru 5y ago
        These comments are old but I figured I should point out the meta: if the japanese government cuts contracts they would just have to spend yet more on subsidies. Japan already has extensive subsidy programs for companies with reduced revenue from Corona. Not only would Japan lose out on any upside, there would not be any savings. Further more: it is Japan: the government is not for want of cash.
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - throwaway_kufu 5y ago
      Maybe Elon could give Japan a insider tip before he pumps Doge again and everyone call it a day. In all seriousness though I think Japan has plenty to gain by acting as a global leader, it’s not all about money, and even if it were all about money then unfortunately sometimes cutting loses is the best you can do...and no one really knows how it might work out legally/financially, there may be refunds, or more accurately legal remedies for many of the contracts and investments, and there could be untold amounts of insurance coverage.
    - rurounijones 5y ago
  - bsder 5y ago
    > At this point, there are only two groups of people who are clearly incentivized for the Olympics to happen: the IOC, which would lose all the revenue; and the athletes who would "age out" for the 2024 games. You are forgetting the most important constituency driving this: "Senior Japanese politicians also in on the take."
- Clewza313 5y ago
  What's sad here is that loss of face and sheer inertia seem to be the primary (only?) reasons the Olympics are still going ahead. Japan's vaccination rates remain pathetic, since only 2% have had even a first shot, so even without the Olympics there's a real risk of one of the new variants laying waste to Japan's elderly population. Something like 8 Olympic torch bearers have already come down with COVID, and they had scheduled the world's oldest person to take part until she wisely pulled out.
  - lstamour 5y ago
    Wow. You're not kidding. And apparently they're not alone: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/17/world/asia/japan-south-korea-australia-vaccines.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/17/world/asia/japan-south-ko... (April 17) https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/01/national/japan-vaccines-pace-slow/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/01/national/japan-... says 1.3% as of May 1. It appears things have been partly delayed due to ... well, it's not clear: > The EU said on Monday that it had authorized some 52.3 million doses made in European factories by companies including Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. for export to Japan, the highest volume among all 43 countries to which vaccines have been shipped. > As the revelation caught fire on social media, vaccines minister Taro Kono tweeted that the numbers were wrong. His office said in an emailed statement Friday that only 28 million shots from Pfizer had arrived in Japan. Chief Cabinet Secretariat Katsunobu Kato confirmed on the same day news reports that shots of the Moderna vaccine — which the local drug regulator has not yet approved for domestic use — had also been received though did not disclose the number of doses. And the latest numbers Google gave me was indeed 2%. So it's climbing, but not quickly. They're at least two months behind schedule, I'd suggest.
  - innocenat 5y ago
    I believe the main reason is cost. If IOC call it off, IOC bear the cancellation cost. If Japan does, Japan bear the cost. So Japan is waiting for IOC to call it off.
- unscaled 5y ago
  This might be paternalistic, but the Japanese public is pretty much against holding the Olympic Games this year. I felt that pretty well from anecdotal evidence, but public opinion polls seem to back this trend. Taking this poll[1] for instance, 39.7% were in favor of calling off the games and 25.7% were in favor of postponing them to 2022 or later. Only 28.9% were in favor of hosting the games as planned in 2021. [1] https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2021041600807&g=pol https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2021041600807&g=pol
  - petre 5y ago
    This would be the third time the Japan Olympics have been cancelled or postponed?
chrysoprace 5y ago
Japan has been preparing for the Olympics for years. As much as I oppose the Olympic Games in general, the government is spending lots of money on restoring temples and preparing for a tourism boom as a result of the games. It's not an easy thing to just "cancel".
- rodgerd 5y ago
  Sure it is. It's just that the IOC, the Japanese government, and the various athletic orgs value the money in this over, you know, not having a global super-spreader event.
- kfprt 5y ago
  Aren't Shinto temples somewhat continuously rebuilt anyways as part of the religion?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - Clewza313 5y ago
    No, that's just the Ise Grand Shrine.
  - chrysoprace 5y ago
    Some Shinto and Buddhist shrines/temples are, but I know at least the Kiyomuzi-dera (a Buddhist temple) was undergoing restoration construction while I was there in 2017 in preparation for 2020.
- 3np 5y ago
  They aren’t really preparing for a tourist boom considering that non-resident fans and spectators will not be allowed entry.
- LeoPanthera 5y ago
  They've already banned foreign spectators, there will be no tourism boom.
worker767424 5y ago
"Pillage" is a little hyperbolic, and while I agree that it's probably not worth it, that giving up like that feels very un-Japanese.
Animats 5y ago
Less than 2 percent of Japan’s population is vaccinated. Uh oh. Major international event, in a big city, with 2% vaccinated, not good. We now have a idea of how many people have to be vaccinated to wipe out the disease. Israel is 81% vaccinated and near zero deaths, and around 0.8 new cases per 100K people per day. The UK is at 66% with at least one dose, around 30% with two doses, and holding steady around 3 new cases per 100K people per day. The US is at 30% with two doses, around 47% with one dose, and about 15 new cases per 100K people per day. So it looks like reduction at the US rate, containment at the UK rate, and elimination at the Israel rate.
- raverbashing 5y ago
  The number of people you need vaccinated is N where N * (vaccine efficiency) = (herd immunity threshold = ~ 70%), so in the case of the higher efficiency vaccines N should be between 75% and 85% Though anything above (efficiency * vaccinated) above 50% should make a significant dent on the pandemic
1cvmask 5y ago
I can’t remember the last Olympics I watched. Nor do I know anyone that watches it. Wonder if viewership is in decline around the world?
- casefields 5y ago
  >The most recent summer games, held in Rio de Janiero in 2016, drew in an audience of 3.6 billion viewers. https://www.statista.com/statistics/287966/olympic-games-tv-viewership-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/287966/olympic-games-tv-...
  - dingaling 5y ago
    Those aren't individual viewers though, that's multiple-counting everyone who watched more than one event. A bit like splitting the Superbowl into discrete ad-delimited sections and repeat-counting everyone who stayed tuned in.
- asdff 5y ago
  Viewership in the US at least seems to be all over the place by year with no rhyme or reason really, other than maybe high GPD country hosted olympics seeming to have higher ratings. Table from wikipedia on TV viewership in this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympics_on_United_States_television https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympics_on_United_States_tele...
fomine3 5y ago
Serious problem in Japan is that all top 5 nationwide newspaper (they're also parent company of top 5 nationwide TV) is Olympic sponsor. They can't publish neutral articles/programs. Journalism is dead.
tanxt 5y ago
The only fair thing is to ask the participating athletes. If 80% want to go, proceed with the games. If necessary, without spectators. We live in an abominable society where people who do the work are always asked last, and politicians, businessmen, and IOC functionaries decide.
- threatofrain 5y ago
  The athletes aren't the only people who are betting big ($15B+) to make the Olympics work. You think the 80% vote of foreign athletes should govern how the nation of Japan proceeds with its loss?
  - flpag 5y ago
    Make their profits work? Olympics could he held anywhere in existing locations for a negligible cost. What loss? Presumably the athletes want to go, so increase TV broadcast rights by x% and there is no loss. When everyone is at home, there will be record numbers of viewers.

53 points by Clewza313 5y ago

throwaway197812 5y ago

What a bizarre screed. "Baron Von Ripper-off"? Who exactly is Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post writing to? I'd be quite surprised if any of the decision makers in Japan give a flying fuck what she thinks. Most likely they are acting in their own self-interest, just like the IOC. Billions have already been spent; all the revenue from foreign spectators has already been cancelled. If the games are cancelled entirely, any chance of revenue will be destroyed, not to mention a huge loss of face. The paternalistic tone here is also way off-base. Many Japanese are quite tired of being told what to do by Americans for the past 75+ years.

wavefunction 5y ago
It's just an opinion piece in an American newspaper. This is an odd post to be sure.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
HeavenFox 5y ago
Tone aside, she is not wrong though. At this point, there are only two groups of people who are clearly incentivized for the Olympics to happen: the IOC, which would lose all the revenue; and the athletes who would "age out" for the 2024 games. Why should an entire city, even an entire country, bear the cost for just a few?
- Danieru 5y ago
  > Why should an entire city, even an entire country, bear the cost for just a few? Are you imaging some form of refund on the billions in infrastructure spending? Japan has nothing to gain by canceling and freeing the athletes and IOC from their responsibilities. Why shouldn't Japan get their own private Olympics? They paid for it.
  - fomine3 5y ago
    Sunk cost.
    - Danieru 5y ago
      Yes that's the point.
      - admax88q 5y ago
        You're actievly committing the sink cost fallacy. You need to ignore how much has been spent already and just look at how much it more it will cost from right now to host the Olympics, compared to potential value it would produce.
        Danieru 5y ago
        These comments are old but I figured I should point out the meta: if the japanese government cuts contracts they would just have to spend yet more on subsidies. Japan already has extensive subsidy programs for companies with reduced revenue from Corona. Not only would Japan lose out on any upside, there would not be any savings. Further more: it is Japan: the government is not for want of cash.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - throwaway_kufu 5y ago
    Maybe Elon could give Japan a insider tip before he pumps Doge again and everyone call it a day. In all seriousness though I think Japan has plenty to gain by acting as a global leader, it’s not all about money, and even if it were all about money then unfortunately sometimes cutting loses is the best you can do...and no one really knows how it might work out legally/financially, there may be refunds, or more accurately legal remedies for many of the contracts and investments, and there could be untold amounts of insurance coverage.
  - rurounijones 5y ago
- bsder 5y ago
  > At this point, there are only two groups of people who are clearly incentivized for the Olympics to happen: the IOC, which would lose all the revenue; and the athletes who would "age out" for the 2024 games. You are forgetting the most important constituency driving this: "Senior Japanese politicians also in on the take."
Clewza313 5y ago
What's sad here is that loss of face and sheer inertia seem to be the primary (only?) reasons the Olympics are still going ahead. Japan's vaccination rates remain pathetic, since only 2% have had even a first shot, so even without the Olympics there's a real risk of one of the new variants laying waste to Japan's elderly population. Something like 8 Olympic torch bearers have already come down with COVID, and they had scheduled the world's oldest person to take part until she wisely pulled out.
- lstamour 5y ago
  Wow. You're not kidding. And apparently they're not alone: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/17/world/asia/japan-south-korea-australia-vaccines.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/17/world/asia/japan-south-ko... (April 17) https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/01/national/japan-vaccines-pace-slow/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/01/national/japan-... says 1.3% as of May 1. It appears things have been partly delayed due to ... well, it's not clear: > The EU said on Monday that it had authorized some 52.3 million doses made in European factories by companies including Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. for export to Japan, the highest volume among all 43 countries to which vaccines have been shipped. > As the revelation caught fire on social media, vaccines minister Taro Kono tweeted that the numbers were wrong. His office said in an emailed statement Friday that only 28 million shots from Pfizer had arrived in Japan. Chief Cabinet Secretariat Katsunobu Kato confirmed on the same day news reports that shots of the Moderna vaccine — which the local drug regulator has not yet approved for domestic use — had also been received though did not disclose the number of doses. And the latest numbers Google gave me was indeed 2%. So it's climbing, but not quickly. They're at least two months behind schedule, I'd suggest.
- innocenat 5y ago
  I believe the main reason is cost. If IOC call it off, IOC bear the cancellation cost. If Japan does, Japan bear the cost. So Japan is waiting for IOC to call it off.
unscaled 5y ago
This might be paternalistic, but the Japanese public is pretty much against holding the Olympic Games this year. I felt that pretty well from anecdotal evidence, but public opinion polls seem to back this trend. Taking this poll[1] for instance, 39.7% were in favor of calling off the games and 25.7% were in favor of postponing them to 2022 or later. Only 28.9% were in favor of hosting the games as planned in 2021. [1] https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2021041600807&g=pol https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2021041600807&g=pol
- petre 5y ago
  This would be the third time the Japan Olympics have been cancelled or postponed?

chrysoprace 5y ago

Japan has been preparing for the Olympics for years. As much as I oppose the Olympic Games in general, the government is spending lots of money on restoring temples and preparing for a tourism boom as a result of the games. It's not an easy thing to just "cancel".

rodgerd 5y ago
Sure it is. It's just that the IOC, the Japanese government, and the various athletic orgs value the money in this over, you know, not having a global super-spreader event.
kfprt 5y ago
Aren't Shinto temples somewhat continuously rebuilt anyways as part of the religion?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- Clewza313 5y ago
  No, that's just the Ise Grand Shrine.
- chrysoprace 5y ago
  Some Shinto and Buddhist shrines/temples are, but I know at least the Kiyomuzi-dera (a Buddhist temple) was undergoing restoration construction while I was there in 2017 in preparation for 2020.
3np 5y ago
They aren’t really preparing for a tourist boom considering that non-resident fans and spectators will not be allowed entry.
LeoPanthera 5y ago
They've already banned foreign spectators, there will be no tourism boom.

worker767424 5y ago

"Pillage" is a little hyperbolic, and while I agree that it's probably not worth it, that giving up like that feels very un-Japanese.

Animats 5y ago

Less than 2 percent of Japan’s population is vaccinated. Uh oh. Major international event, in a big city, with 2% vaccinated, not good. We now have a idea of how many people have to be vaccinated to wipe out the disease. Israel is 81% vaccinated and near zero deaths, and around 0.8 new cases per 100K people per day. The UK is at 66% with at least one dose, around 30% with two doses, and holding steady around 3 new cases per 100K people per day. The US is at 30% with two doses, around 47% with one dose, and about 15 new cases per 100K people per day. So it looks like reduction at the US rate, containment at the UK rate, and elimination at the Israel rate.

raverbashing 5y ago
The number of people you need vaccinated is N where N * (vaccine efficiency) = (herd immunity threshold = ~ 70%), so in the case of the higher efficiency vaccines N should be between 75% and 85% Though anything above (efficiency * vaccinated) above 50% should make a significant dent on the pandemic

1cvmask 5y ago

I can’t remember the last Olympics I watched. Nor do I know anyone that watches it. Wonder if viewership is in decline around the world?

casefields 5y ago
>The most recent summer games, held in Rio de Janiero in 2016, drew in an audience of 3.6 billion viewers. https://www.statista.com/statistics/287966/olympic-games-tv-viewership-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/287966/olympic-games-tv-...
- dingaling 5y ago
  Those aren't individual viewers though, that's multiple-counting everyone who watched more than one event. A bit like splitting the Superbowl into discrete ad-delimited sections and repeat-counting everyone who stayed tuned in.
asdff 5y ago
Viewership in the US at least seems to be all over the place by year with no rhyme or reason really, other than maybe high GPD country hosted olympics seeming to have higher ratings. Table from wikipedia on TV viewership in this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympics_on_United_States_television https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympics_on_United_States_tele...

fomine3 5y ago

Serious problem in Japan is that all top 5 nationwide newspaper (they're also parent company of top 5 nationwide TV) is Olympic sponsor. They can't publish neutral articles/programs. Journalism is dead.

tanxt 5y ago

The only fair thing is to ask the participating athletes. If 80% want to go, proceed with the games. If necessary, without spectators. We live in an abominable society where people who do the work are always asked last, and politicians, businessmen, and IOC functionaries decide.

threatofrain 5y ago
The athletes aren't the only people who are betting big ($15B+) to make the Olympics work. You think the 80% vote of foreign athletes should govern how the nation of Japan proceeds with its loss?
- flpag 5y ago
  Make their profits work? Olympics could he held anywhere in existing locations for a negligible cost. What loss? Presumably the athletes want to go, so increase TV broadcast rights by x% and there is no loss. When everyone is at home, there will be record numbers of viewers.