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Here’s the personal savings rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT And here’s the money velocity: https:

Here’s the personal savings rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT And here’s the money velocity: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V When the economy actually reopens and people start spending again, prices will go boom.

spekcular 5y ago
To clarify, the claim I object to is that inflation is currently, at the present moment, "running rampant." I agree that if the Fed does not handle things carefully then there may be problems in the future.
throw0101a 5y ago
> When the economy actually reopens and people start spending again, prices will go boom. Yes, this has actually been predicted. See also 2010-11: > Then came a few months when inflation seemed to be rising after all. Consumer price inflation reached almost 4 percent; wholesale inflation went into double digits; the average price of commodities like oil and soybeans rose almost 40 percent in a year. Soon Republicans were haranguing Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, suggesting that his efforts might “debase the currency.” > But the Fed stayed its course, arguing correctly that rising prices were a temporary blip, not a harbinger of ’70s-style stagflation. Inflation soon subsided, and it has stayed low ever since. […] > So what’s going to happen in the months ahead? We’ll probably see a number of transitory price increases, not just because the economy is booming, but also because the lingering effects of the pandemic have produced some unusual disruptions — for example, a global shortage of shipping containers. > The question will be whether these price increases are a 2010-2011-type blip or something more dangerous. Smart observers will look past the headlines to measures of underlying inflation — not just the Fed’s standard “core” measure but things like the Atlanta Fed’s sticky price index as well. * https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/opinion/us-inflation-stimulus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/opinion/us-inflation-stim... * https://archive.is/Vxj5h https://archive.is/Vxj5h We heard the same thing about printing money during the QE years. Still waiting for inflation after ~10 years.

spekcular 5y ago

To clarify, the claim I object to is that inflation is currently, at the present moment, "running rampant." I agree that if the Fed does not handle things carefully then there may be problems in the future.

throw0101a 5y ago

> When the economy actually reopens and people start spending again, prices will go boom. Yes, this has actually been predicted. See also 2010-11: > Then came a few months when inflation seemed to be rising after all. Consumer price inflation reached almost 4 percent; wholesale inflation went into double digits; the average price of commodities like oil and soybeans rose almost 40 percent in a year. Soon Republicans were haranguing Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, suggesting that his efforts might “debase the currency.” > But the Fed stayed its course, arguing correctly that rising prices were a temporary blip, not a harbinger of ’70s-style stagflation. Inflation soon subsided, and it has stayed low ever since. […] > So what’s going to happen in the months ahead? We’ll probably see a number of transitory price increases, not just because the economy is booming, but also because the lingering effects of the pandemic have produced some unusual disruptions — for example, a global shortage of shipping containers. > The question will be whether these price increases are a 2010-2011-type blip or something more dangerous. Smart observers will look past the headlines to measures of underlying inflation — not just the Fed’s standard “core” measure but things like the Atlanta Fed’s sticky price index as well. * https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/opinion/us-inflation-stimulus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/opinion/us-inflation-stim... * https://archive.is/Vxj5h https://archive.is/Vxj5h We heard the same thing about printing money during the QE years. Still waiting for inflation after ~10 years.