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Inflation has probably been double digits for a while now. StatsCan recently responded to complaints that its inflation metric _doesn't account for housing_ an

Inflation has probably been double digits for a while now. StatsCan recently responded to complaints that its inflation metric _doesn't account for housing_ and attempted to meet critics half-way; even though the new metric still didn't account for the cost of housing, the adjustment to inflation was _so alarming_ that StatsCan took the rare step of _reverting_ its change. [0] And CNBC reported that the real inflation, using old accounting, is around 10%. [1] 0: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-statscan-revises-core-inflation-upward-backtracks-on-new-methods/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-statscan-re... 1: https://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209 https://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

owenversteeg 6y ago
Your CNBC article is from over a decade ago. The Statscan numbers (reverted or not) were all under 2%, which is certainly not anywhere near record levels.
- dleslie 6y ago
  Do you think the factors have improved in the last decade? And yes, StatsCan made a minor adjustment, and yet it was such a shock that they rolled back. Accounting for the true increased cost of housing, market and rental, would cause Canada's inflation metric to jump considerably.
  - owenversteeg 6y ago
    If you really think inflation has been double digits annually since the last recession, you have no idea what you are talking about, sorry. Let's take the most charitable interpretation of what you said and assume it was 10% since the last recession. (Do the math with something like 15% or 20% if you want to laugh.) 10% annually would be a price increase of about 3.5x since 2008, so if bananas cost $0.63/lb now they would cost $2.20/lb, or if an average home cost $205k it would now cost $718k. What actually happened was that time, basic goods generally got cheaper or stayed fairly similar to their 2008 prices. Bananas are actually around 10% cheaper. Bread is 1.19x its 2008 price. The median new home is $300k versus $205k, or 1.46x - one of the largest increases! That's around 3% annually. The median new car is 1.08x more expensive (and far superior to its 2008 competition.) No, sorry, there is absolutely no way whatsoever that inflation was double digits for the last decade.
    - dleslie 6y ago
      > if an average home cost $205k it would now cost $718k. That's completely within the realm of reason in many places across Canada. I'm not being pithy, it really is.
      - owenversteeg 6y ago
        [edit: OP edited their comment to remove some things, so now this comment looks strange] 315k to 800k is 2.53x, not 3.5x. That would represent a 7.1% annual increase in 13 years. If housing is 33% of the average person's budget, and all other costs increased by 3% annually, that'd be 4.3% annual inflation. Nowhere near double digits. (That's of course assuming a very large home price increase like you see in a few Canadian metro areas, which is way out of line with the vast majority of the US)
        dleslie 6y ago
        4.3% is still a shocking number; it's roughly double the number the BoC declares.
        owenversteeg 6y ago
        4.3%, like I said is making two huge overestimates: one, that home prices increased nationwide by far more than what they actually did, and two, that all other things inflated by an average of 3%. Plenty of things even saw negative year over year changes. TVs have gotten incredibly cheap. Software is basically free (whether you pay for it with your privacy or go with FOSS.) Furniture, clothes, lights, toys have gotten far cheaper than they were even a few decades ago.
        throw0101a 6y ago
        Shelter is 27% of Statcan's CPI, with Owned accommodation being 17%: * https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc... However what you're talking about is asset prices, which has nothing to do with inflation. There's a term for rising asset pricing: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble Going to US numbers, inflation-adjusted monthly mortgage payments are the lowest they've been in quite a while: * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/what-if-housing-prices-arent-as-high-as-they-appear/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/what-if-housing-pri... Purchase price would effect downtime amounts though.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
throw0101a 6y ago
> Inflation has probably been double digits for a while now. Inflation that high does not make mathematical sense: > But if we take away the outlier 2020 data points, the average real annual GDP growth from 2010-2019 was 2.3%. The inflation rate in that time averaged roughly 1.8% per year. > If you’re one of the conspiracy people who believe inflation has actually been running at 5-6% per year, that would assume the economy has been contracting by 1-3% per year over the past 10 years. > And if you’re a full tinfoil hat person who assumes inflation is actually 10-12% per year[2], that’s like saying we’ve been in a full-blown depression and the economy has lost 80% of its value. * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/01/inflation-truthers/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/01/inflation-truthers/ The numbers for Canada would be similar: if economic growth was "only" ~2-3%, then any inflation higher than that would be that we've been experiencing contraction. And if inflation was "double digits" as you claim, with 'low' (<5%) GDP growth, where's the Depression?

owenversteeg 6y ago

Your CNBC article is from over a decade ago. The Statscan numbers (reverted or not) were all under 2%, which is certainly not anywhere near record levels.

dleslie 6y ago
Do you think the factors have improved in the last decade? And yes, StatsCan made a minor adjustment, and yet it was such a shock that they rolled back. Accounting for the true increased cost of housing, market and rental, would cause Canada's inflation metric to jump considerably.
- owenversteeg 6y ago
  If you really think inflation has been double digits annually since the last recession, you have no idea what you are talking about, sorry. Let's take the most charitable interpretation of what you said and assume it was 10% since the last recession. (Do the math with something like 15% or 20% if you want to laugh.) 10% annually would be a price increase of about 3.5x since 2008, so if bananas cost $0.63/lb now they would cost $2.20/lb, or if an average home cost $205k it would now cost $718k. What actually happened was that time, basic goods generally got cheaper or stayed fairly similar to their 2008 prices. Bananas are actually around 10% cheaper. Bread is 1.19x its 2008 price. The median new home is $300k versus $205k, or 1.46x - one of the largest increases! That's around 3% annually. The median new car is 1.08x more expensive (and far superior to its 2008 competition.) No, sorry, there is absolutely no way whatsoever that inflation was double digits for the last decade.
  - dleslie 6y ago
    > if an average home cost $205k it would now cost $718k. That's completely within the realm of reason in many places across Canada. I'm not being pithy, it really is.
    - owenversteeg 6y ago
      [edit: OP edited their comment to remove some things, so now this comment looks strange] 315k to 800k is 2.53x, not 3.5x. That would represent a 7.1% annual increase in 13 years. If housing is 33% of the average person's budget, and all other costs increased by 3% annually, that'd be 4.3% annual inflation. Nowhere near double digits. (That's of course assuming a very large home price increase like you see in a few Canadian metro areas, which is way out of line with the vast majority of the US)
      - dleslie 6y ago
        4.3% is still a shocking number; it's roughly double the number the BoC declares.
        owenversteeg 6y ago
        4.3%, like I said is making two huge overestimates: one, that home prices increased nationwide by far more than what they actually did, and two, that all other things inflated by an average of 3%. Plenty of things even saw negative year over year changes. TVs have gotten incredibly cheap. Software is basically free (whether you pay for it with your privacy or go with FOSS.) Furniture, clothes, lights, toys have gotten far cheaper than they were even a few decades ago.
      - throw0101a 6y ago
        Shelter is 27% of Statcan's CPI, with Owned accommodation being 17%: * https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc... However what you're talking about is asset prices, which has nothing to do with inflation. There's a term for rising asset pricing: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble Going to US numbers, inflation-adjusted monthly mortgage payments are the lowest they've been in quite a while: * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/what-if-housing-prices-arent-as-high-as-they-appear/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/what-if-housing-pri... Purchase price would effect downtime amounts though.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

throw0101a 6y ago

> Inflation has probably been double digits for a while now. Inflation that high does not make mathematical sense: > But if we take away the outlier 2020 data points, the average real annual GDP growth from 2010-2019 was 2.3%. The inflation rate in that time averaged roughly 1.8% per year. > If you’re one of the conspiracy people who believe inflation has actually been running at 5-6% per year, that would assume the economy has been contracting by 1-3% per year over the past 10 years. > And if you’re a full tinfoil hat person who assumes inflation is actually 10-12% per year[2], that’s like saying we’ve been in a full-blown depression and the economy has lost 80% of its value. * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/01/inflation-truthers/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/01/inflation-truthers/ The numbers for Canada would be similar: if economic growth was "only" ~2-3%, then any inflation higher than that would be that we've been experiencing contraction. And if inflation was "double digits" as you claim, with 'low' (<5%) GDP growth, where's the Depression?